What Will Change?

Pandemic boosts Chinese biotech cred

8 Jun 2020

Little-known firms like $5 bln CanSino are among the front runners to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. Most are working with foreign governments and companies, underscoring China’s rising industry status. These upstarts will go global even with rising geopolitical tensions.

Viewsroom: Not the same as it ever was

4 Jun 2020

After the Covid-19 pandemic has passed, will we still shake hands, ride elevators, go to sports matches and go on dates? Will taxes surge to pay for massive government budget deficits? Breakingviews editors chew over some highlights from their new e-book on what will change.

Once in a lifetime is our hopeful prediction

2 Jun 2020

Humanity either learns key lessons from the pandemic, corrects course and becomes a more resilient species. Or it tears further apart and expands the divisions in society that predated Covid-19. In a new e-book on what will change, Breakingviews takes the more optimistic view.

E-book: Once in a Lifetime?

2 Jun 2020

Humanity either learns key lessons from the pandemic, corrects course and becomes a more resilient species. Or it tears further apart and expands the divisions in society that predated Covid-19. In a new e-book on what will change, Breakingviews takes the more optimistic view.

Cities exodus will be more fringe than fashion

1 Jun 2020

Covid-19 and its lockdowns have left many urbanites yearning for more space. Technology makes it easier to contemplate working from a hamlet than after past pandemics. But a mass shift to the ‘burbs and beyond requires a lot of investment to overcome a dearth of infrastructure.

Mall-to-retailer relationships will get creative

29 May 2020

Brookfield Asset Management launched a $5 bln fund to invest directly in retailers. It’s an effort to salvage some of the Canadian mall owner’s top customers. As Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney march into bankruptcy, other real estate owners will rethink traditional rents, too.

Virus bailouts will be messier than past rescues

29 May 2020

Governments are ponying up trillions of dollars to save lockdown-hit firms. Further assistance looks inevitable as economies falter. States will demand higher taxes and jobs in return, putting them at odds with private owners. And lending to smaller firms creates bigger tensions.

Activist curve will get flattened by the pandemic

28 May 2020

Dozy boards are crying out for prodding as Covid-19 ravages businesses. But balance sheets will need to be more, not less, robust. And pushy investors can hardly point to great returns. After years of barging down doors, they should prepare to have more slammed in their faces.

Vacant arenas fortify TV’s financial grip on sport

28 May 2020

When games restart, distancing rules will mean emptier soccer and baseball stadiums. Sports which rely less on live crowds, like golf or Formula 1, may benefit. More home viewers should further boost the value of media rights, already worth $51 bln, and offset lost ticket sales.

Economic distancing is sad sequel to social kind

27 May 2020

Coronavirus has struck disproportionately as a disease of the poor. The human tragedy has been especially stark in dense, unequal places like New York. As economic distancing sets in, the gap is going to widen further between black and white, urban and suburban, north and south.

Stock-pickers will join endangered species list

27 May 2020

Active fund managers failed to outperform as the pandemic struck. A Covid-19 legacy of corporate disruption and central bank support will make gaining an edge even harder. As the shift towards passive investments accelerates, fees will be compressed and mergers may be necessary.

Big Elevator faces a cable-free race to the top

26 May 2020

Social distancing is accelerating the ascent of next-generation lifts from Otis, Thyssen, Kone and Schindler. Powered by magnets, cars will whizz round a circuit like a vertical bullet train rather than shuttling passengers up and down a rope. Eat your heart out, Roald Dahl.

Energy’s titans will experience a dead cat bounce

21 May 2020

The virus-led crude price crash is upending petrostates and oil majors alike. Incumbent leaders with storage capacity and low costs might seem to be the winners as smaller competitors flounder. But they’ll fall victim to the longer-term behavioural shifts prompted by Covid-19.

Telemedicine may be U.S. healthcare’s new normal

21 May 2020

Online doctor visits are surging. It’s a safe and convenient alternative to going in person, insurers incentivize it, and restrictive rules are easing. While virtual visits are usually cheaper, though, increased uptake could push up total healthcare spending.

Regulators will owe banks a favour post-pandemic

21 May 2020

In contrast to 2008, lenders have so far helped cushion Covid-19’s economic blow, while central banks have propped up financial markets. The crisis highlights banks’ value as steady providers of credit. That will lead to some looser rules - and possibly a green light for M&A.

Fed’s credit market duct tape will come unstuck

20 May 2020

Junk bond yields have fallen from March peaks despite dire economic forecasts thanks to Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell’s new asset buying plans. He can’t make bad business models sustainable and may even encourage bad decisions. Investors will be out on a limb if things blow up.

Icky cash gets shove towards eventual obsolescence

20 May 2020

Lockdowns and fear of contamination have made banknotes less relevant. Such habits will stick. Although central banks won’t yet call time on cash, misgivings over handing too much power to private payment players mean the stars are aligning for government-backed digital money.

African debt holiday choices open new divisions

20 May 2020

Kenya won’t take up a G20-backed offer to poorer nations to suspend debt repayments. That’s because private creditors may take a dim view of such a move, irrespective of what ratings agencies say. Africa’s laggards have to accept the offer and will look worse in comparison.

Handshake will be relic of a more trusting time

19 May 2020

Finance will be different after Covid-19, and not just because the disease turned markets and economies upside down. Social shifts that outlast the pandemic – as simple as the reluctance to shake hands – will eat at trust. That’s the last thing a misanthropic Wall Street needs.

It’s a long jump back onto the travel bandwagon

19 May 2020

Despite the whopping 30% fall in globetrotting expected this year, tourists will pack their bags again just as they have after past crises. Health precautions will add costs, however, while empty middle seats hurt revenue. The relevance of corporate flyers also is bound to wane.