War & Conflict

German energy bailout belatedly outclasses Europe

30 Sep 2022

Berlin will borrow 200 bln euros to help consumers cope with rocketing energy prices. It’s not the first state to go for a shock and awe approach, but Germany’s ample fiscal space gives it way more scope to go big. Unlike the UK, it can also do so without spooking investors.

Guest view: Russia sanctions lack decisive punch

27 Sep 2022

Restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have done economic damage, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. But Cuba and Iran show American sanctions are not decisive in changing geopolitical outcomes.

Ukraine has more pluses than minuses for climate

26 Sep 2022

The Russian invasion has prompted other countries to boost gas production and burn more coal. Climate diplomacy is on ice. But this crisis will also prompt a dash for cheaper and more secure renewable energy. That helps the fight to slow global warming, says Hugo Dixon.

Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice

26 Sep 2022

Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.

Uniper’s new bailout mixes scars and consolations

21 Sep 2022

Germany’s 8 bln euro capital injection heavily dilutes the stricken energy group’s investors and hands main shareholder Fortum a big loss. The Finnish group does gain from exiting the mess, and Berlin might one day profit from the rescue. But neither side will be celebrating.

Oil price cap will harm, not help, Asia

15 Sep 2022

The U.S. says countries ignoring a G7-led price cap against Russia can leverage it to negotiate discounts. But even if the policy works and lowers short-term prices, India and China’s massive long-term oil needs make it risky to mess with price signals that spur fresh supply.

Europe can shrug off Putin’s Chinese gas Plan B

14 Sep 2022

With exports to its key European market shrinking fast, Moscow hopes to hike gas exports to the People’s Republic. But last year these were just 7% of EU sales, and logistics and sanctions complicate the shift. It need not deter Europe’s talk of a Russian gas price cap.

Europe energy fallout will cascade down the years

12 Sep 2022

The gas crisis is a long-term problem which will make the region poorer and less competitive while saddling it with higher public debt. Dealing with this as well as high inflation will cause further political ructions which will cascade down the years, says Hugo Dixon.

Putin’s gas ploy worsens Russia’s economic plight

9 Sep 2022

The EU paid 89 bln euros for Russian oil and gas in the last six months. That helps President Vladimir Putin afford the closure of a key pipeline. But the move will speed Europe’s search for other energy sources. If the EU holds firm on sanctions, Russia’s recession will deepen.

The consequences of Europe’s energy crisis

8 Sep 2022

As Russian President Vladimir Putin cuts off gas through a key pipeline, Breakingviews columnists discuss the response from UK and European governments, how the shutdown could have some longer-term benefits, and when Russia will feel the squeeze of lost revenue.

EU has ways to learn to live with less gas

6 Sep 2022

The closure of a key Russian pipeline leaves Europe facing a 20% shortfall in fuel supply. Measures to cut demand like lower temperatures in homes and incentives for companies to use less energy may soften the blow. More gas-dependent nations like Italy must now work harder.

Gorbachev’s bold political plan had economic flaw

31 Aug 2022

The former Soviet leader, who died aged 91, ended the Cold War and launched a liberalisation that brought the USSR to an end. But despite seeing the defects of Communism, he failed to reform Russia’s economy. The result is a country very different from the one he envisaged.

Capital Calls: Taiwan, Meme stocks

18 Aug 2022

Concise views on global finance: Trade talks between the United States and Taiwan suggest tensions with China will keep rising. Meanwhile, the fade and rally in Bed Bath and Beyond shares show the stock craze is making a comeback.

U.S.-China relationship bleeds by a thousand cuts

8 Aug 2022

Beijing has suspended bilateral cooperation on drugs, climate, military and crime over Washington’s support for Taiwan. In the near term little changes; actual collaboration was minimal. The diplomatic freeze will nevertheless further poison a $600 bln trade relationship.

China’s economic plight ups Pelosi visit risks

2 Aug 2022

Despite Beijing’s warnings, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on Tuesday. Slowing growth and supply chain constraints make it hard for China to retaliate against American or Taiwanese firms. Oddly, that makes a military showdown more likely.

Russia is giving German industry a slow puncture

27 Jul 2022

Industrial users of gas are in the firing line as Moscow halts supply. Companies like BASF face a hit from higher input costs and energy rationing, rather than a Uniper-style bailout. The problem for Berlin is that sustained high prices could make production head elsewhere.

Global food crisis demands urgent Western response

25 Jul 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed up food and energy costs around the globe. The most urgent problems are in poorer countries, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. Rich nations offered insufficient help for Covid-19. International bodies can do better this time.

Russian grain deal gives food crisis a partial fix

22 Jul 2022

Moscow has agreed to lift a blockade on 20 mln tonnes of Ukrainian grain. That should reduce the scale of a Middle East food crisis, and ease prices which remain high versus 2021. Still, Russia could always renege on the new deal.

Russia’s macro health hides chronic deficiencies

22 Jul 2022

Oil and gas exports and lower imports mean the rouble is strong, and GDP hasn’t yet collapsed. But longer term, Moscow needs to aid inflation-hit consumers, and help sanctions-hit firms fill the gap left by departing Western rivals. Graft and a brain drain will make that hard.

Ukraine needs hard cash more than debt relief

21 Jul 2022

The war-torn country needs $9 bln a month to cover its costs. Its central bank is running out of reserves. A bond payment freeze will help, but only at the margin. Western allies need to launch a coordinated aid effort to keep the country afloat.