War & Conflict

Time for world to dust off its post-Putin plans

26 Jun 2023

The Russian president has been humiliated by his former protégé Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup. Whether he clings to power or is eventually shunted aside, he looks wounded. When weighing up the consequences, global powers should expect the worst but prepare for the best.

Ukraine’s push for speedy rebuild faces obstacles

23 Jun 2023

Kyiv is keen to put aid money to work on an early start of the reconstruction effort. Foreign donors and investors remain wary of the war dangers. A scheme to insure those risks could speed up things, but going too fast could also compromise Ukraine’s long-term recovery effort.

Rebuilding Ukraine: how much and who pays?

22 Jun 2023

Talk of reconstruction may seem premature with Russia still firing missiles at Kyiv. Yet that’s what policymakers and financiers gathered in London this week to debate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the cost, the timetable, and who picks up the tab.

Donors can digest Ukraine dam attack damage

21 Jun 2023

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a big blow to Kyiv and adds billions of dollars to its recovery bill. Yet international donors meeting this week in London can absorb the long-term shock. Especially if they take the assault as a sign of Russia’s rising military desperation.

Kyiv courts risk with oligarch bank takeover plan

12 Jun 2023

Ukraine wants to nationalise Sense Bank, owned by sanctioned tycoons Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven. The political move lacks a strong economic logic. The state already owns four of the country’s top lenders. Finding a new private owner for the bank would be more sensible.

How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0

29 May 2023

A return to the White House for the pro-Putin, protectionist and climate-sceptic former President would pose many challenges for other rich democracies. Their best insurance is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote trade and speed up action on global warming, says Hugo Dixon.

EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel

23 May 2023

Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.

Ukraine rebuilding would be small wager for Europe

16 May 2023

The Ukrainian economy shrank by 30% last year but the war didn’t break it. Reconstruction will cost $410 bln over a decade, according to the World Bank. The European Union could fund the bulk of those efforts by spending just 0.1% of annual GDP. That would be a shrewd investment.

Ukraine banks’ robust health masks big challenges

11 May 2023

After previous central bank reforms and an influx of deposits, the Ukrainian financial sector remains strong. But bad loans are at 38% and the three largest banks are state-owned. To support Ukraine’s reconstruction they will need more balance sheet cleanups, and privatisations.

Rebuilding Ukraine depends on luring private money

10 May 2023

International agencies and allied governments are taking care of the war-torn country’s immediate needs. An estimated $400 bln reconstruction bill, however, requires additional investors. Economic incentives and new laws would help attract them even before Russia’s invasion ends.

Italy’s Leonardo risks missing defence bonanza

3 May 2023

The $7 bln Italian electronics and helicopter group, 30%-owned by the state, trades at a discount to peers. Leonardo is not fully capitalising on rising EU military budgets after the Ukraine war. Investor support to add external expertise to the board is sorely needed.

How US and allies can find common ground on China

17 Apr 2023

Emmanuel Macron is not the only US partner wary of being drawn into a Taiwan crisis. But America and its allies will be stronger if they can agree more about dealing with the People’s Republic. Part of the answer is to focus on de-risking rather than decoupling, says Hugo Dixon.

Sinking Russian military crafts new arms winners

12 Apr 2023

Moscow’s share of global arms exports shrank by 27% over the last five years, to the benefit of the US and France. Deprived of Western technology, Russia’s defence industry has struggled to adapt. Its traditional customers also aren’t impressed by its poor performance in Ukraine.

China sanctions red line has shifted westward

21 Mar 2023

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.

Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit

20 Mar 2023

Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.

Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics

23 Feb 2023

It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.

War puts defence firms on investors’ radar

21 Feb 2023

The Ukraine conflict is prompting once-wary capital to engage with defence and aerospace companies. In this Exchange podcast Lorenz Meier, CEO of drone software firm Auterion, accepts ethical issues remain. But defence tech startups should brace for new venture capital cash.

Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven

20 Feb 2023

Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.

Even a weak Russia is a problem for Europe

20 Feb 2023

A year after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe seems destined for an arms race and further economic decoupling from its neighbour. But extra defence spending, lost business and rebuilding costs will be minor compared to a scenario where Moscow crushes Kyiv, says Hugo Dixon.

Syngenta jumbo IPO will sow seeds of doubt

14 Feb 2023

A Shanghai listing this year may value the pesticides and seeds maker at a chunky $66 bln. The group’s role in feeding a growing global population will please investors. But its reliance on toxic weedkillers that are losing favour in Europe poses a long-term threat.