War & Conflict

Israel’s robust economy faces a major stress test

10 Oct 2023

The Middle East state’s thriving tech sector and strong institutions have helped it weather past security crises. Its latest one is much bigger, though. One key indicator will be whether foreign capital can retain its recent enthusiasm for investing in the $500 bln economy.

Israel highlights fragility of new trade corridors

10 Oct 2023

The bloody conflict undermines Washington’s vision to use the country’s Haifa port to link India via Saudi Arabia to Europe. It also makes China’s pivot to the Middle East look less of a bright idea. The spoils are huge but reconfiguring trade and financial flows is hard work.

Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven

9 Oct 2023

Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.

Israel flashes geopolitical warning at shaky time

9 Oct 2023

Bloody attacks in the Middle Eastern country raise the risk of contagion, possibly involving Iran. It’s a bad time for the region to join Ukraine as a conflict hotspot. And it’s yet another concern for a global economy grappling with inflation and rising borrowing costs.

African coups will ramp up scramble for minerals

31 Aug 2023

Gabon’s government was overthrown by a military revolt, following similar unrest in Niger. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how instability in producers of key resources like manganese and uranium will lead global powers to hunt for more stable sources.

African coups will exacerbate grab for resources

30 Aug 2023

Military revolts in Niger and Gabon are destabilising two resource-rich nations. That’s bad news while the continent struggles with rising interest rates, no market funding and poor governance. Uncertainty will intensify global powers’ rivalry for control of oil and minerals.

Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work

29 Aug 2023

A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.

India is warming up to a cooling China

28 Aug 2023

Narendra Modi’s meeting with Xi Jinping in South Africa signals some thawing of financial ties hamstrung since 2020 by border tensions. Investments from the People’s Republic into its neighbour shrivelled thanks to a screening policy. That now looks ripe for fine-tuning.

Prigozhin exit leaves Putin’s weakness alive

24 Aug 2023

The apparent death of the former convict-turned-chief mercenary comes two months after his mutiny against the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s actions had raised doubts about the stability of the Putin regime and its capacity to get out of the Ukrainian morass. His exit leaves those intact.

Russia’s jumbo rate hike leaves Putin in hot water

15 Aug 2023

A plunge in the rouble and the Kremlin’s prodding forced the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 3.5 percentage points. The currency’s muted reaction leaves the president with more bad choices: restrict welfare spending or hope that even tighter policy can curb inflation.

Black Sea wheat war is sideshow for grain deal

9 Aug 2023

Russia is bombing Ukraine’s Danube ports while Kyiv hits its enemy’s ships in the Black Sea. Bumper harvests can cushion the shock on global wheat prices. But it would be in the two warring countries’ interest to strike a new food transport pact to allow their lucrative exports.

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status

27 Jul 2023

The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.

Egypt’s food tightrope has petrodollar safety net

24 Jul 2023

The collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is a big problem for the world’s top importer of wheat. Egypt’s battered economy will struggle as food prices spike. A $400 mln lifeline from the UAE, flush with oil cash, is one of leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s few crumbs of comfort.

European gas security rests on a fragile balance

14 Jul 2023

Mindful of last summer’s mad price rally, EU states have lots of the fossil fuel in storage. This, plus higher Chinese purchases, may keep European contracts below Asian ones. But that may prompt US cargoes of liquefied gas to head East, lifting European gas prices again.

Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab

30 Jun 2023

Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.

Putin’s problems are only minor boost for Ukraine

29 Jun 2023

The Russian president restored a semblance of calm in Moscow after an aborted mutiny. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for the country’s invasion of its neighbour. It’s helpful, but not necessarily transformative, for Kyiv’s resistance.

Markets are far from pricing in peace

26 Jun 2023

Germany’s Rheinmetall and other defence shares fell after an aborted Russian mutiny. Domestic instability may shorten the Ukraine war, curtailing lucrative contracts. Yet chaos in Moscow, Western tensions with China and rising cyberthreats will keep the world amply unsafe.

Europe has more Russian lessons to learn

26 Jun 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny rams home the EU’s need to protect itself from trouble abroad. Leaders meeting this week in Brussels are thinking in more geostrategic terms and may now agree a China policy. But until they act as a bloc they will lack clout, says Hugo Dixon.

Indonesia IPOs hitch a dicey electric-car ride

26 Jun 2023

New listings more than doubled to $3 bln this year, beating Hong Kong and London, as firms cash in on the nation’s growing status in electric-vehicle supply chains. But deals are marred by weak secondary market performance and political risks loom. The boom looks unsustainable.