War & Conflict

Millennial princes snatch at power in Gulf

3 Jan 2017

Ageing monarchs may hand greater powers to a younger, more progressive generation in 2017. Falling oil revenues and ballooning budget deficits are forcing sheikhdoms to make overdue economic and social reforms or risk financial meltdown. Millennial thinking could help.

Russian sanctions will shrivel to soccer boycotts

23 Dec 2016

Pro-Kremlin leaders in Europe and the U.S. plus a rising oil price will embolden Vladimir Putin in 2017. That could lead to a rethink on sanctions and a soft response to Baltic sabre-rattling. Western protests will be limited to threatening boycotts of the 2018 World Cup.

Turkey-Russia pact can survive Ankara flashpoint

20 Dec 2016

Moscow’s ambassador in the Turkish capital has been shot dead by a policeman seeking revenge for Aleppo. In 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin were at loggerheads. Now mutual self-interest over Syria and a perceived common enemy mean the shock can be smoothed over.

Russia lacks cash and motive to rebuild Syria

16 Dec 2016

After the last Iraq war, U.S. reconstruction cash poured in. Were Aleppo's collapse to prompt the end of the war in Syria, Moscow's economic fragility would make it unlikely to follow suit. An EU populist backlash against a fresh influx of fleeing Syrians helps Russia anyway.

Colombia wises up to perils of direct democracy

16 Nov 2016

President Santos and FARC rebels tweaked a peace deal that was narrowly nixed in a Brexit-style plebiscite. The new pact looks likely to go to Congress for approval rather than another referendum, a prudent move given voters' inscrutability. The economy needs an end to war.

Saudi can’t have cheap oil and a war in Yemen

12 Oct 2016

The kingdom's fight against Houthi militants in Yemen is a burden on finances strained by cheap crude. Persisting with its expensive military adventure may require Riyadh to let oil prices rise further. Otherwise real-world battles may spill over into the economic kind.

Colombia’s “no” to peace will backfire on economy

2 Oct 2016

Voters on Sunday narrowly rejected a deal with FARC rebels that aimed to end five decades of civil war. The result shreds the credibility of the president and pollsters. The desire to be tougher on the rebels proved stronger – just – than the appeal of a needed peace dividend.

Damning Iraq report shows there’s hope for Britain

6 Jul 2016

A state inquiry has slated British lawmakers for the 2003 Iraq war. This, and a post-referendum political vacuum, may spur investors to wonder why they fund the UK’s big current account deficit. The answer - for now - is institutional resilience and a capacity for self-criticism.

Putin is slipping into Crimean economic sinkhole

14 Jun 2016

Russia’s struggle to build a bridge link to Crimea is a microcosm of President Vladimir Putin’s problem: his annexation carries high costs but is yielding meagre benefits. Public discontent risks flaring before September’s parliamentary elections and may spur a new crackdown.