War & Conflict

Qatar’s weak link in Saudi stand-off: people

9 Jun 2017

The sheikhdom has the money and resources required to withstand a cold war with its neighbours. Its economy depends on foreign expatriates, though, who account for more than three-quarters of the population. Preventing a demographic drain is the best reason to agree to a truce.

Qatar crisis points to quick but uncomfortable fix

6 Jun 2017

As Arab states and U.S. President Trump align against the emirate, the chance of leadership change is rising. Another reshuffle within the ruling family might unblock trade and diplomatic links without affecting Qatar’s economic prospects. But the precedent would be alarming.

Qatar quarrel shows limit of its sovereign wealth

6 Jun 2017

The emirate’s $300 bln-plus fund has snapped up landmark buildings and stakes in companies like Barclays and Rosneft. The spree was meant to generate returns and diplomatic clout. But Qatar’s largesse has produced few allies to help it face down its more powerful neighbours.

Saudi-Qatar rift is old theme with Trumpian twist

5 Jun 2017

After the U.S. president’s whistlestop visit, the kingdom has turned on its gas-rich neighbour. Saudi has long suspected Qatar of supporting terrorism and sidling up to Iran. Deep fractures in a region that pumps a fifth of the world’s oil could spill over into markets.

Suicide bombing brings tragic twist to UK election

23 May 2017

The attack that killed at least 22 concertgoers in Manchester is Britain’s deadliest in more than a decade. Its aftermath will dominate the remaining two and a half weeks of campaigning. As in other European countries, economic issues will take a back seat to security concerns.

Moon win offers South Korea ray of sunlight

9 May 2017

The election of liberal Moon Jae-in to the presidency heralds a softer stance on North Korea and restores domestic stability. That’s welcome. But he will need to unite a polarized nation to succeed where his ousted predecessor failed in resetting South Korea's growth model.

Markets call Trump’s war bluff on North Korea

8 May 2017

Investors are ignoring the U.S. president’s war rhetoric against Pyongyang, snapping up South Korean securities and modestly buying protection against default. Optimism over the global economy and a new leader in Seoul result in a mute reaction compared to past flashpoints.

Wall Street served low-hanging China fruit basket

10 Apr 2017

Negotiators for presidents Trump and Xi have reportedly agreed to ease the U.S. financial sector's access to China. It's an easy concession as the benefits will mostly accrue to Beijing: greater inflows of foreign capital, plus help upgrading bond and equity markets.

Trump’s Syria strikes don’t justify crude worries

7 Apr 2017

Oil spiked after U.S. missiles rained on Syria. The fear isn’t that supplies will be disrupted but that Syrian ally Iran, which has been increasing its output of crude, will be hit with renewed sanctions. Even if that happens, other forces could keep markets well supplied.

Millennial princes snatch at power in Gulf

3 Jan 2017

Ageing monarchs may hand greater powers to a younger, more progressive generation in 2017. Falling oil revenues and ballooning budget deficits are forcing sheikhdoms to make overdue economic and social reforms or risk financial meltdown. Millennial thinking could help.

Russian sanctions will shrivel to soccer boycotts

23 Dec 2016

Pro-Kremlin leaders in Europe and the U.S. plus a rising oil price will embolden Vladimir Putin in 2017. That could lead to a rethink on sanctions and a soft response to Baltic sabre-rattling. Western protests will be limited to threatening boycotts of the 2018 World Cup.

Turkey-Russia pact can survive Ankara flashpoint

20 Dec 2016

Moscow’s ambassador in the Turkish capital has been shot dead by a policeman seeking revenge for Aleppo. In 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin were at loggerheads. Now mutual self-interest over Syria and a perceived common enemy mean the shock can be smoothed over.

Russia lacks cash and motive to rebuild Syria

16 Dec 2016

After the last Iraq war, U.S. reconstruction cash poured in. Were Aleppo's collapse to prompt the end of the war in Syria, Moscow's economic fragility would make it unlikely to follow suit. An EU populist backlash against a fresh influx of fleeing Syrians helps Russia anyway.

Colombia wises up to perils of direct democracy

16 Nov 2016

President Santos and FARC rebels tweaked a peace deal that was narrowly nixed in a Brexit-style plebiscite. The new pact looks likely to go to Congress for approval rather than another referendum, a prudent move given voters' inscrutability. The economy needs an end to war.

Saudi can’t have cheap oil and a war in Yemen

12 Oct 2016

The kingdom's fight against Houthi militants in Yemen is a burden on finances strained by cheap crude. Persisting with its expensive military adventure may require Riyadh to let oil prices rise further. Otherwise real-world battles may spill over into the economic kind.

Colombia’s “no” to peace will backfire on economy

2 Oct 2016

Voters on Sunday narrowly rejected a deal with FARC rebels that aimed to end five decades of civil war. The result shreds the credibility of the president and pollsters. The desire to be tougher on the rebels proved stronger – just – than the appeal of a needed peace dividend.

Damning Iraq report shows there’s hope for Britain

6 Jul 2016

A state inquiry has slated British lawmakers for the 2003 Iraq war. This, and a post-referendum political vacuum, may spur investors to wonder why they fund the UK’s big current account deficit. The answer - for now - is institutional resilience and a capacity for self-criticism.

Putin is slipping into Crimean economic sinkhole

14 Jun 2016

Russia’s struggle to build a bridge link to Crimea is a microcosm of President Vladimir Putin’s problem: his annexation carries high costs but is yielding meagre benefits. Public discontent risks flaring before September’s parliamentary elections and may spur a new crackdown.