War & Conflict

Italian CEOs’ Putin call exposes European discord

26 Jan 2022

Rome is pushing the firms to scrap their virtual chat with the Russian leader. With their varying degrees of investment, trade and energy dependence, Europeans have more to lose from sanctions against Moscow than the United States. That lets Putin pit them all against each other.

Ukraine sabre-rattling hits Russian bank investors

20 Jan 2022

If President Vladimir Putin invades, the United States has vowed to punish the country’s lenders. Sberbank and VTB don’t need foreign funding and can count on state support. Yet tumbling stocks this year show that shareholders can still get crushed by diplomatic failure.

Kazakh oligarch shakeup may give foreigners a shot

12 Jan 2022

President Tokayev needs to consolidate power after unrest and raise cash to placate his citizens. Billionaires allied to his predecessor are obvious targets. Since he lacks a go-to gang to take over mining assets, he may favour gradual redistribution and more external investment.

Pricey oil gives Kazakh investors emergency cover

7 Jan 2022

Russia sent troops to quash a revolt in its neighbour. Even if President Tokayev keeps his job, energy majors like Chevron and Shell will fear fallout from the unrest. With the state reaping the rewards of oil at $80 a barrel, there’s less incentive to renegotiate their terms.

Kazakh gas revolt is timely canary in the coalmine

5 Jan 2022

The central Asian state’s government has fallen after it removed a price cap on liquefied petroleum gas. Kazakhs have a host of local grievances other than energy costs. But commodity spikes will also cause fireworks in European states unless politicians cushion the blow.

Belarus’ gas muscle-flexing is self-sabotage

16 Nov 2021

President Lukashenko may regret his threats to disrupt flows of Russian gas to Europe. The pipeline crossing his territory is already of waning importance. By potentially hastening the opening of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 line to Germany, he’s bringing forward its retirement.

Sudan coup throws rock into choppy Nile waters

28 Oct 2021

The army has seized power in Khartoum, pushing it back into diplomatic isolation. Sudan and Egypt had existing gripes with Ethiopia over the damming of the mighty river. Removing Khartoum’s veneer of civilian rule risks future spats over Nile water use spiralling into conflict.

Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO

5 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.

Capital Calls: Biden channels Trump on China

16 Sep 2021

Concise views on global finance: After losing an Australian submarine deal, the French accused the U.S. president of acting like his predecessor. They’re right that there’s bipartisan antipathy towards Beijing in Washington. They’d better hope the similarity ends there.

Guinea coup is win for Australia and Brazil

6 Sep 2021

Soldiers have deposed the West African nation’s president, Alpha Condé. Besides disruption to bauxite exports, the upheaval may upend development of the Simandou mine’s 8.6 billion tonnes of iron ore deposits, capable of adding 10% to global output. Rival diggers will be smiling.

Afghanistan’s financial lifeline may lie in Qatar

27 Aug 2021

The state needs help to prevent an economic collapse. If gas-rich Doha provided funds, as it has to other stricken regimes, it could embolden critics who claim it is too close to militants. But Qatar has a chance to avoid past mistakes and shore up its status as a power broker.

Financially isolating Afghanistan is pointless

25 Aug 2021

Much of the budget has evaporated with the abrupt halt on aid, and an effective U.S. freeze on central bank reserves is compounding the chaos. An economic collapse will only fan extremism and refugee outflows. Targeted support is urgently needed to preserve development gains.

Capital Calls: Pfizer M&A, Uber driver status

23 Aug 2021

The drugmaker has agreed to acquire Trillium Therapeutics for $2.3 billion, looking to its broader post-coronavirus strategy; a California judge has struck down a law exempting tech companies from treating drivers as full employees, complicating their push to keep costs down.

Viewsroom: China’s Afghanistan question

19 Aug 2021

Beijing was able to expand its influence in central Asia while America and its allies held back the Taliban. The Islamic fundamentalists’ return to power presents China with new challenges – and opportunities. Plus: CEO Mike Henry shakes up mining giant BHP.

Dixon: Afghan crisis is climate risk, opportunity

19 Aug 2021

The Western alliance may be so damaged it can’t provide climate leadership. Global decarbonisation plans would fail to build momentum, storing up massive financial pain. But there’s a chance the West will regroup – and devise a Pax Planeta to replace the failed Pax Americana.

Afghanistan puts China firmly on leadership hook

16 Aug 2021

Beijing might exploit the collapse of the U.S.-backed state to consolidate economic influence in central Asia and improve energy security. But a volatile theocracy could also threaten its rising regional investments, and ultimately suck it into the mess the Americans fled.

South Africa has no money to throw at its problems

15 Jul 2021

The Rainbow Nation is suffering its worst civil unrest since the end of apartheid in 1994. The ruling ANC’s usual response to cracks in the social fabric is to fill them with new subsidies. With debt at 80% of GDP and rising fast, that has a limited shelf-life.

Capital Calls: Gates split, Chinese IPOs, Telenor

8 Jul 2021

Concise views on global finance: Bill and Melinda Gates agree a post-divorce plan for their joint charitable organisation; medical data firm LinkDoc is among the first to pull its U.S. listing; the Norwegian telco gets just $105 mln for unit hobbled by Myanmar junta.

Israel’s military effort has an economic shield

17 May 2021

Hostilities are entering a second week. Despite the struggle to form a new government, a strong vaccine record and a solid current account surplus mean the economy is in relatively decent shape. The conflict would have to drag on for a few months and escalate for that to change.

Capital Calls: Betway, U.S. banks, Vaccine feud

26 Apr 2021

Concise views on global finance: Another online betting group goes public by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company; some financial firms are racing to capture nearly-free funding from American depositors; Europe faces a long and costly fight for AstraZeneca vaccines.