War & Conflict

Ukraine war gives impetus to climate backsliders

24 Feb 2022

Politicians are supposed to be fast-tracking decarbonisation. Russia’s invasion may speed the long-term shift to renewable energy. But it could also empower fossil fuel fans to ease energy security fears via new supply. Investors, lured by high crude prices, may go along with it.

Bond market sends flawed signals on U.S. economy

24 Feb 2022

A dash to safe havens means Treasuries are in big demand. But the yield curve is sending the same messages it was before Russia invaded Ukraine: that Fed rate hikes may trigger recession and that policy rates won’t rise much above 2%. Both presumptions could be wrong.

West has some cover to ramp up Russian sanctions

24 Feb 2022

Sberbank and VTB halved after troops invaded Ukraine, suggesting Moscow’s banks and oligarchs may end up pariahs, like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Russian tit-for-tat might hit European gas supplies. The one comfort is that end of winter makes it less of an immediate problem.

Putin prods planet into riskier post-pandemic funk

24 Feb 2022

The Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine exposes the limit of sanctions in deterring conflict. The soaring oil price will punch still-fragile economies as they recover from Covid-19, testing Western unity. Global markets for energy and technology face further fragmentation.

China has already won, and lost, in Ukraine

24 Feb 2022

Russia's assault embarrasses Beijing, which has perhaps inadvertently backed a foreign invasion despite its mantra of sovereign non-interference. But the war will distract the West and boost China’s leverage over a key energy supplier.

Capital Calls: Ukraine/chips, Lloyds

24 Feb 2022

Concise views on global finance: Russia’s invasion could exacerbate the semiconductor shortage; New Chief Executive Charlie Nunn wants to boost the 34 bln pound British bank’s fee income, but the bigger prize may come from rising rates.

Vladimir Putin muscles onto central banker agendas

22 Feb 2022

Russia’s president formally ordered troops into two separatist regions of Ukraine, raising the spectre of war. As oil surges toward $100 a barrel, riskier assets are falling out of favour. Any retaliation, including sanctions, could further fuel inflationary fires.

Oligarch sanctions with teeth may yet lack bite

17 Feb 2022

Britain has widened the ways rich Russians can effectively be banned from its shores via sanctions. While less bad than the worst U.S. strictures, they would make life much harder for Russia’s top companies and their overlords. But only if the UK actually uses its new powers.

Viewsroom: Ukraine, ECB and India’s giant insurer

17 Feb 2022

Worries about an invasion of Ukraine have rattled markets, but Dasha Afanasieva says Russian investors are more sanguine. The European Central Bank faces a tougher inflation juggling act, argues Swaha Pattanaik. And Una Galani discusses the listing of India’s Life Insurance Corp.

Ericsson’s ISIS fallout could go beyond big fines

16 Feb 2022

The Swedish telecoms group says it may have made indirect payments to Islamist militants in Iraq. That’s way worse than the brown envelopes it sent in places like Vietnam that cost $1 bln in fines. Besides harsher U.S. penalties, Ericsson may find life tougher in its key market.

Russian investors display war chat scepticism

14 Feb 2022

Global stocks dropped and government bonds rose after the U.S. said Moscow could invade Ukraine at any time. Though the rouble and shares in lender Sberbank declined, Russian assets aren’t pricing in the toughest economic sanctions. If war is imminent, there’s more pain to come.

Europe’s gas crunch can avoid worst-case outcome

28 Jan 2022

For a continent struggling with high energy costs, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a nightmare. But cutting off gas exports would also damage President Vladimir Putin. Barring a total boycott, liquefied gas imports and action by corporate buyers could limit the disruption.

Italian CEOs’ Putin call exposes European discord

26 Jan 2022

Rome is pushing the firms to scrap their virtual chat with the Russian leader. With their varying degrees of investment, trade and energy dependence, Europeans have more to lose from sanctions against Moscow than the United States. That lets Putin pit them all against each other.

Ukraine sabre-rattling hits Russian bank investors

20 Jan 2022

If President Vladimir Putin invades, the United States has vowed to punish the country’s lenders. Sberbank and VTB don’t need foreign funding and can count on state support. Yet tumbling stocks this year show that shareholders can still get crushed by diplomatic failure.

Kazakh oligarch shakeup may give foreigners a shot

12 Jan 2022

President Tokayev needs to consolidate power after unrest and raise cash to placate his citizens. Billionaires allied to his predecessor are obvious targets. Since he lacks a go-to gang to take over mining assets, he may favour gradual redistribution and more external investment.

Pricey oil gives Kazakh investors emergency cover

7 Jan 2022

Russia sent troops to quash a revolt in its neighbour. Even if President Tokayev keeps his job, energy majors like Chevron and Shell will fear fallout from the unrest. With the state reaping the rewards of oil at $80 a barrel, there’s less incentive to renegotiate their terms.

Kazakh gas revolt is timely canary in the coalmine

5 Jan 2022

The central Asian state’s government has fallen after it removed a price cap on liquefied petroleum gas. Kazakhs have a host of local grievances other than energy costs. But commodity spikes will also cause fireworks in European states unless politicians cushion the blow.

Belarus’ gas muscle-flexing is self-sabotage

16 Nov 2021

President Lukashenko may regret his threats to disrupt flows of Russian gas to Europe. The pipeline crossing his territory is already of waning importance. By potentially hastening the opening of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 line to Germany, he’s bringing forward its retirement.

Sudan coup throws rock into choppy Nile waters

28 Oct 2021

The army has seized power in Khartoum, pushing it back into diplomatic isolation. Sudan and Egypt had existing gripes with Ethiopia over the damming of the mighty river. Removing Khartoum’s veneer of civilian rule risks future spats over Nile water use spiralling into conflict.

Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO

5 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.