Ukraine/Russia

McDonald’s closure marks ending of Russian era

10 Mar 2022

In 1990, Pierre Briancon witnessed the opening of the fast-food chain’s first restaurant in Moscow. It was the surest sign the Soviet Union was dead and its economy reforming. Similarly, McDonald’s closing its 850 Russian outlets this week symbolises the country’s isolation.

Russian wheat squeeze sows seeds of global unrest

9 Mar 2022

Prices of the grain soared to record highs following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, a major producer. A previous spike in 2007 led to riots in Africa and Asia while pushing up subsidy costs. This time major importers like Egypt already have low reserves, spelling greater trouble.

Venezuela gives Washington lesson in realpolitik

9 Mar 2022

The Latin American country’s oil could conveniently replace U.S. imports from Russia. But the regime of Nicolás Maduro has been under U.S. sanctions since 2017. Easing them would amount to accepting the lesser of two evils, with nearly 30 million Venezuelans as pawns.

Nickel’s emergency stop creates longer-term issues

9 Mar 2022

The LME suspended trading in the metal and nixed trades after prices soared. The fix avoids wider losses, and London’s idiosyncratic market may make this seem a one-off. But commodity producers fretting over Russia may now also worry about how easily they can hedge in future.

It’s time for Macron to pull Total out of Russia

9 Mar 2022

French governments usually don’t hesitate to meddle in corporate affairs. The oil major’s refusal to sell its 19% stake in oligarch-controlled Novatek suggests uncharacteristic modesty from President Macron. Given the damage to France’s reputation, this doesn’t make sense.

Ukraine speeds global rush to self-sufficiency

9 Mar 2022

Sanctions cutting off Russia’s access to chips and payments systems, plus spiking food and energy prices, will prompt governments to rethink trust in free trade, already rattled by the U.S.-China trade war and Covid-19. An inefficient protectionist era may be in the offing.

What a business sticking with Russia ought to mean

8 Mar 2022

Companies’ decisions to stay or leave have been inconsistent. If they benefit Moscow's coffers or the elite, like firms that deal in oil or luxury goods, it’s a no-brainer: they should go. But if they sell to the masses or employ them, the choice may legitimately be harder.

U.S. Russian oil ban ineffective without partners

8 Mar 2022

Russia produces about 10% of global oil. Given most of its exports go to Europe and Asia, an American import ban is relatively economically easy, especially if other unpalatable foreign policies are considered. But hitting Russian pockets needed much greater coordination.

Russian debt coin toss will get harder to call

8 Mar 2022

Gazprom and Rosneft are repaying bonds despite fears Moscow may renege on its own debt. The depressed prices of Russian corporate debt mean investors who rightly bet on repayment can double their money. Yet rising tensions and murky workouts mean the trade will get riskier.

EU charts expensive path towards energy freedom

8 Mar 2022

The European Commission wants to lop over 70% off Russian gas use this year by ramping up LNG purchases, green energy and gas storage. It implies Europeans consuming less energy and paying more than feared for what they use. Pooled EU resources may be needed to cushion the blow.

Bank stocks are flashing red light for EU economy

8 Mar 2022

Shares in the bloc’s lenders have dropped 23% since Russia invaded Ukraine. That’s greater than banks’ exposure to those countries, and more than wipes out an expected rate-hike boon. Investors fear rampant defaults and recession. Bank CEOs may have to start cutting costs again.

Capital Calls: White-collar crime, Rusal rejig

7 Mar 2022

Concise views on global finance: The U.S. attorney general wants to go after more individuals as well as companies for corporate crimes. Even law firm Wachtell says top bosses should pay attention; a plan to separate Rusal’s non-Russian bits looks like a challenge.

Musk’s D.C. reset sets dubious precedent

7 Mar 2022

The SpaceX boss has irked lawmakers, battled watchdogs, and even insulted the U.S. president. Offering internet access to Ukraine may catapult him out of villain status. His help is welcome now. But allowing Musk’s finger on the diplomatic scale may have unintended consequences.

Yandex bond woes are first step to state takeover

7 Mar 2022

The U.S.-listed Russian tech group may default on a $1.25 bln debt. Even if it cuts a deal with creditors, the economic hit from sanctions will crush its revenue from e-commerce and selling ads. President Vladimir Putin’s internet goals make eventual nationalisation likely.

Russia’s reverse globalisation will test Putin

7 Mar 2022

The country spent three decades integrating into the global economy. The president’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to wind the clock back within weeks. How the nation copes without Western technology, capital and consumer goods will help decide whether Vladimir Putin backs down.

Singapore trims Vladimir Putin’s fallback options

7 Mar 2022

The tiny hub’s surprise sanctioning of Russia is a loud blow to Moscow’s decade-long pivot to Asia. Even in larger countries like India that aren’t ready to choose sides, the rising influence of U.S.-led alliances pare Putin's scope to do big business in the region beyond China.

UAE could be Russian oligarchs’ next playground

4 Mar 2022

Amid U.S. and European asset freezes, Moscow’s billionaires need new bases. The United Arab Emirates has international schools, a Western feel and, in Dubai, a relaxed approach to sanctioned parties. Most of all, it’s currently taking a different stance over Ukraine to the West.

Russia crisis is Big Crypto’s coming-of-age moment

3 Mar 2022

Major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance are still open to Russians despite the risk of sanctions evasion. If they fail to spot illicit transactions, regulators will crush the life out of them. If they pass the test – and they might – it may be their ticket to the mainstream.

Western curbs give Moscow rational default card

3 Mar 2022

Sanctions mean President Vladimir Putin has reason not to repay at least some of his $200 bln of debt, and less fear of the consequences. That would leave creditors stuck for years, with little hope of a recovery. Even depressed prices of Russian bonds may prove optimistic.

Chelsea’s sale proceeds may not amount to much

3 Mar 2022

Roman Abramovich is seeking buyers for his soccer club, pledging to hand net takings to Ukraine war victims. That might be a tiny sum: cash-burning Chelsea relies on his wealth to stay afloat. And would-be owners may worry about dealing with a politically risky Russian oligarch.