Ukraine/Russia

SocGen avoids the worst in costly Russian exit

11 Apr 2022

The French bank is selling Rosbank back to the oligarch it bought the unit from 16 years ago. Despite a 3 bln euro writeoff, the hit to its capital ratio is less than half the worst-case scenario it outlined last month. It’s a fitting end to a long and unhappy Russian story.

Fertiliser makers face long wait for free lunch

11 Apr 2022

Soaring gas prices are making products of crop nutrient producers like Norway’s Yara and Austria’s Borealis unaffordable for farmers. Subsidising the companies might be the least bad way to avoid a food inflation crisis. Waiting for grains to fail will store up bigger problems.

Nickel deal upheaval is unfair but reasonable

11 Apr 2022

IGO’s $820 mln bid for miner Western Areas was derailed by KPMG, prompting the buyer to increase its offer by 15%. It’s unclear whether war in Ukraine will alter the nickel market longer-term. Even so, it’s refreshing to see an adviser ditch the usual rubber stamp.

Putin’s finances can survive a European energy ban

8 Apr 2022

The Russian president may cut off gas to Europe, or even face a hydrocarbon export freeze himself. That could mean up to $50 bln less annual revenue, yet Moscow’s reserves and high oil prices will cushion the blow. An embargo would hurt Russia, but not bring Putin to his knees.

China’s Russian energy pause looks very temporary

8 Apr 2022

Companies are holding off new oil purchases to avoid stumbling into secondary sanctions. But the Chinese are top owners of Russia’s key gas export facilities in the strategic Arctic. Beijing has a strong incentive to resist disruption to its long-term energy security plans.

Telegram’s Russia performance is a one-man show

7 Apr 2022

Pavel Durov’s messaging app has resisted President Vladimir Putin’s edicts and survived them. The app’s popularity has surged, setting it up to double its $30 bln valuation. Yet for skeptics of transparency at Twitter or WhatsApp, Telegram arguably presents even starker risks.

Chancellor: In praise of slack

7 Apr 2022

Executives spent decades optimising strategies to boost efficiency and returns on equity. That left them exposed to shocks like the global pandemic and invasion of Ukraine. In a world that values spare capacity, Japanese firms look better placed than their American counterparts.

Russia takes big step towards default

7 Apr 2022

Russia will pay foreign bondholders roubles instead of dollars. A default looks likely after a 30-day grace period. Many investors, stuck with a currency they can’t use and facing an uncertain legal battle for any recovery, may prefer to take losses today and sell.

Rouble’s strength is sign of Russia’s weakness

6 Apr 2022

The Russian currency has appreciated 70% against the dollar since early March. Capital controls, 20% interest rates, and forced conversion of export revenues have been enough to push it up in very thin trading volumes. The rebound is a sign of economic woes, not resilience.

Ukraine should be rebuilt without Russian money

6 Apr 2022

Reconstruction may cost as much as $200 bln, more than Europe’s post-WW2 Marshall Plan in today’s money. Even if Kyiv wanted Russia’s roubles, Western finance will keep Ukraine in Europe’s orbit. Moscow’s main penance for the carnage will be in the form of long-term sanctions.

Time for Europe to break energy sanctions taboo

4 Apr 2022

Alleged Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians are set to trigger a harsher EU response. Dependency on Russian oil and gas makes Germany and others reluctant to back a full energy embargo. Taxing hydrocarbon imports is a halfway-house option that still hurts Moscow.

Russian yachts stranded in choppy sanctions waters

1 Apr 2022

France, Italy and Britain have grabbed headlines by seizing luxury cruisers linked to sanctioned oligarchs. But proving ownership is tricky, while keeping the expensive boats afloat may require state money or navigating complex rules. Selling them will be an even rougher voyage.

Hydrogen’s civil war reveals its winner

31 Mar 2022

The element has a big role in beating climate change. But fans of natural gas-based “blue” hydrogen and its zero-carbon “green” cousin are constantly vying for supremacy. Soaring fossil-fuel prices and energy supply fears after Russia’s Ukraine invasion are handing green victory.

China jitters, energy decoupling and Russian gold

31 Mar 2022

The war in Ukraine is spurring investors and governments to act fast. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss foreign cash fleeing Beijing, the West’s rapid plan to de-Russify its energy mix and Vladimir Putin’s options for his $140 billion gold chest.

Sloppy sanctions will blunt themselves

31 Mar 2022

Their design allows Europe to keep buying Russian energy, and Washington’s focus is belatedly turning to spillover effects on poorer economies hit by spiking prices for wheat and oil. Rising resentment among innocent bystanders will reduce Western sanctions’ future effectiveness.

EU’s Ukraine currency fix is a problem best shared

29 Mar 2022

The ECB wants the European Union to guarantee potential losses when Ukrainians fleeing the war change their currency into euros. A rival plan would leave this up to national governments. The pooled scheme is much more likely to give Ukrainians hope in the value of the hryvnia.

Germany’s oil embargo block is short-sighted

29 Mar 2022

Berlin is opposing a European ban on Russian energy. A gas embargo would take months to manage. But stopping oil imports now would be doable, while depriving Moscow of resources to fund the war. And Germany could afford the economic price.

Russia’s gold reserves buy Putin a few options

28 Mar 2022

The Russian leader has a $140 bln stash of the yellow metal. Using it, however, can require shell companies and middlemen. Putin’s regime may have some experience helping Venezuela turn bullion into euros. Though U.S. prosecutors will give chase, the gold trail is hard to follow.

Russian gas gets harder to buy, but easier to snub

25 Mar 2022

Vladimir Putin’s call for Moscow’s hydrocarbon customers to pay in roubles puts Europe in a quandary. Still, Washington and Brussels are fleshing out a valid Plan B to Kremlin gas. That implies the Russian leader’s power to make market prices go haywire may start to wane.

Capital Calls: Renault out of Russia

24 Mar 2022

Concise views on global finance: Dire prospects for the sanctioned economy make the French carmaker’s decision to leave rational, but costly.