Ukraine/Russia

IMF’s outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true

10 Feb 2023

The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to avoid a recession this year after contracting by 2.2% in 2022. That is much more optimistic than Moscow’s own forecasts. Unless oil prices stage an improbable rally, investors should trust the locals’ gloomier view.

Capital Calls: Adidas kitchen sink

10 Feb 2023

Concise views on global finance: Shares in the sportswear maker fell 11% amid forecasts of a high-single-digit decline in sales in 2023.

Capital Calls: AI lessons, Robots, Streaming wars

8 Feb 2023

Concise views on global finance: Textbook rental company Chegg becomes an early victim of ChatGPT fears; a short supply of U.S. workers makes automation look even more appealing; Warner Bros Discovery flips the script on its deal logic and will keep HBO Max as a separate service.

Trying to bankrupt Russia could backfire

30 Jan 2023

Now that Western allies are supplying tanks to Ukraine, why not also ramp up sanctions on Russian oil and gas? Because doing so would carry big economic risks – and that could undermine Western willingness to continue its vital military support for Kyiv, says Hugo Dixon.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.

Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023

12 Jan 2023

The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility.

EU’s frozen Russian assets plan is best put on ice

12 Jan 2023

The European Commission wants to use nearly $200 bln of Russian assets to help finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. Germany seems to like the idea. But it is legally shaky, financially marginal, and politically fraught. For now Europe and its allies must shoulder the task.

Guest view: Debt fixes can help rebuild Ukraine

11 Jan 2023

Even as Russia’s invasion ravages the country, policymakers need to start planning for reconstruction, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. States and private creditors will chip in. U.S.-backed Brady bonds, which helped ease past crises, can provide further relief.

How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023

10 Jan 2023

Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.

Cheaper gas is temporary salve for Europe Inc

9 Jan 2023

Warm winter days and enough reserves to offset Russian imports have halved the fuel’s cost. Yet Europe’s energy security also hinges on abundant liquefied natural gas purchases. As China’s fuel-guzzling economy reopens post-Covid, industrial giants like BASF may still suffer.

Capital Calls: Danske’s money-laundering slap

14 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The Danish bank’s $2 bln penalty for processing potentially illicit payments pales in comparison with BNP Paribas’ $9 bln hit in 2014, even though the suspicious money flows may have been larger.

Capital Calls: Nuclear fusion, U.S. inflation

13 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The scientific breakthrough in potentially limitless power is exciting, but to make it commercially viable will be equally challenging; Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November, and there could be more good news to come once shelter data catches up.

Capital Calls: Rio Tinto, Grocery delivery M&A

9 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: After a shambolic process, the $118 bln miner has succeeded in buying out the 49% of Turquoise Hill Resources it doesn’t own; Turkish grocery delivery player Getir gobbles up German rival Gorillas for $1.2 bln.

Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way

5 Dec 2022

The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.

Yandex split marks end of Russian tech hopes

1 Dec 2022

The group once known as the “Russian Google” may split its international and Russian businesses. Ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin will head the shrunken local arm. The company’s founders can start anew, but investors in the former Nasdaq darling will likely remain bereft.

EU gas cap is indirect signal to cut power demand

23 Nov 2022

The bloc’s proposed brake on natural gas prices at 275 euros per megawatt hour is a fig leaf. The ceiling is so high and with such stringent conditions that it may never be activated. Its main use may be to remind EU states their best option is to use energy more efficiently.

Energy crises speed up the green transition

22 Nov 2022

In 2022, war and power shortages have led to more fossil fuel use. But they also act as a catalyst for the rollout of renewable energy. In this edition of The Exchange podcast, ex-Snam boss Marco Alverà tells George Hay how Europe’s leaders can capitalise on this dynamic.

Capital Calls: Uniper

3 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: The German utility’s 40 bln euro loss for the first nine months of 2022 has turned its equity negative and implies a much larger bailout.

Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it

31 Oct 2022

The European Union faces a tough period as the energy crisis bites and debt troubles return. But the bloc could have the world’s cheapest and cleanest energy by the mid-2030s and it will probably emerge stronger geopolitically, says Hugo Dixon.

Europe’s industrial mess has protectionist endgame

26 Oct 2022

Manufacturers like Germany’s $42 bln BASF face a toxic brew of high energy prices at home and rising risks in China. That implies a freeze on new investment, and a loss of market share to foreign players. To stop that, European states may ultimately intervene with tariffs.