Ukraine/Russia

Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023

12 Jan 2023

The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility.

EU’s frozen Russian assets plan is best put on ice

12 Jan 2023

The European Commission wants to use nearly $200 bln of Russian assets to help finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. Germany seems to like the idea. But it is legally shaky, financially marginal, and politically fraught. For now Europe and its allies must shoulder the task.

Guest view: Debt fixes can help rebuild Ukraine

11 Jan 2023

Even as Russia’s invasion ravages the country, policymakers need to start planning for reconstruction, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. States and private creditors will chip in. U.S.-backed Brady bonds, which helped ease past crises, can provide further relief.

How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023

10 Jan 2023

Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.

Cheaper gas is temporary salve for Europe Inc

9 Jan 2023

Warm winter days and enough reserves to offset Russian imports have halved the fuel’s cost. Yet Europe’s energy security also hinges on abundant liquefied natural gas purchases. As China’s fuel-guzzling economy reopens post-Covid, industrial giants like BASF may still suffer.

Capital Calls: Danske’s money-laundering slap

14 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The Danish bank’s $2 bln penalty for processing potentially illicit payments pales in comparison with BNP Paribas’ $9 bln hit in 2014, even though the suspicious money flows may have been larger.

Capital Calls: Nuclear fusion, U.S. inflation

13 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The scientific breakthrough in potentially limitless power is exciting, but to make it commercially viable will be equally challenging; Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November, and there could be more good news to come once shelter data catches up.

Capital Calls: Rio Tinto, Grocery delivery M&A

9 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: After a shambolic process, the $118 bln miner has succeeded in buying out the 49% of Turquoise Hill Resources it doesn’t own; Turkish grocery delivery player Getir gobbles up German rival Gorillas for $1.2 bln.

Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way

5 Dec 2022

The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.

Yandex split marks end of Russian tech hopes

1 Dec 2022

The group once known as the “Russian Google” may split its international and Russian businesses. Ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin will head the shrunken local arm. The company’s founders can start anew, but investors in the former Nasdaq darling will likely remain bereft.

EU gas cap is indirect signal to cut power demand

23 Nov 2022

The bloc’s proposed brake on natural gas prices at 275 euros per megawatt hour is a fig leaf. The ceiling is so high and with such stringent conditions that it may never be activated. Its main use may be to remind EU states their best option is to use energy more efficiently.

Energy crises speed up the green transition

22 Nov 2022

In 2022, war and power shortages have led to more fossil fuel use. But they also act as a catalyst for the rollout of renewable energy. In this edition of The Exchange podcast, ex-Snam boss Marco Alverà tells George Hay how Europe’s leaders can capitalise on this dynamic.

Capital Calls: Uniper

3 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: The German utility’s 40 bln euro loss for the first nine months of 2022 has turned its equity negative and implies a much larger bailout.

Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it

31 Oct 2022

The European Union faces a tough period as the energy crisis bites and debt troubles return. But the bloc could have the world’s cheapest and cleanest energy by the mid-2030s and it will probably emerge stronger geopolitically, says Hugo Dixon.

Europe’s industrial mess has protectionist endgame

26 Oct 2022

Manufacturers like Germany’s $42 bln BASF face a toxic brew of high energy prices at home and rising risks in China. That implies a freeze on new investment, and a loss of market share to foreign players. To stop that, European states may ultimately intervene with tariffs.

Time for Europe to tame its energy cravings

19 Oct 2022

After paying through the nose to fill its gas storage reserves to 92%, the bloc is seeking to secure more affordable fuel. Measures like curbing price volatility, club purchases or flexible caps will be no panacea. While supply is tight, curbing demand is the key.

Europe’s energy crisis nears winter of discontent

18 Oct 2022

Germany, Italy and others have scrambled to replace Russian gas and pipeline attacks have become a concern. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Jack Sharples tells The Exchange podcast Europe must learn to live with less power. Next year may be even more challenging.

Total’s Russia foot-dragging is investor problem

18 Oct 2022

The French energy giant owns a stake in gas group Novatek, and is in theory entitled to a $430 mln dividend. CEO Patrick Pouyanné won’t say whether he’s selling. He may hope that long-held Kremlin ties can secure a clean exit, but the uncertainty is a shareholder concern.

German energy bailout belatedly outclasses Europe

30 Sep 2022

Berlin will borrow 200 bln euros to help consumers cope with rocketing energy prices. It’s not the first state to go for a shock and awe approach, but Germany’s ample fiscal space gives it way more scope to go big. Unlike the UK, it can also do so without spooking investors.

Guest view: Russia sanctions lack decisive punch

27 Sep 2022

Restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have done economic damage, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. But Cuba and Iran show American sanctions are not decisive in changing geopolitical outcomes.