Ukraine/Russia

Donors can digest Ukraine dam attack damage

21 Jun 2023

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a big blow to Kyiv and adds billions of dollars to its recovery bill. Yet international donors meeting this week in London can absorb the long-term shock. Especially if they take the assault as a sign of Russia’s rising military desperation.

Kyiv courts risk with oligarch bank takeover plan

12 Jun 2023

Ukraine wants to nationalise Sense Bank, owned by sanctioned tycoons Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven. The political move lacks a strong economic logic. The state already owns four of the country’s top lenders. Finding a new private owner for the bank would be more sensible.

Russia writedown is Raiffeisen’s best option

30 May 2023

The Austrian bank may spin off its profitable Moscow-based unit. The new Vienna-listed lender could struggle to operate given sanctions, shrinking its depressed value further. Stomaching a 4.1 bln euro loss would force Raiffeisen to atone for years of mindless Russian expansion.

Capital Calls: Russian cash, Chinese car feud

25 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: European plans to divert Russian money to Ukraine are ill-thought-out; a feud between China’s BYD and Great Wall Motor is spooking investors.

Russia sanctions become a high return investment

19 May 2023

As older penalties lose their bite, Western powers are preparing a new round of measures to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin. That will hurt the Kremlin and be a marginal sacrifice for Europe, which no longer depends on Moscow for its energy – a good cost-benefit balance.

Ukraine rebuilding would be small wager for Europe

16 May 2023

The Ukrainian economy shrank by 30% last year but the war didn’t break it. Reconstruction will cost $410 bln over a decade, according to the World Bank. The European Union could fund the bulk of those efforts by spending just 0.1% of annual GDP. That would be a shrewd investment.

Ukraine banks’ robust health masks big challenges

11 May 2023

After previous central bank reforms and an influx of deposits, the Ukrainian financial sector remains strong. But bad loans are at 38% and the three largest banks are state-owned. To support Ukraine’s reconstruction they will need more balance sheet cleanups, and privatisations.

Rebuilding Ukraine depends on luring private money

10 May 2023

International agencies and allied governments are taking care of the war-torn country’s immediate needs. An estimated $400 bln reconstruction bill, however, requires additional investors. Economic incentives and new laws would help attract them even before Russia’s invasion ends.

Sinking Russian military crafts new arms winners

12 Apr 2023

Moscow’s share of global arms exports shrank by 27% over the last five years, to the benefit of the US and France. Deprived of Western technology, Russia’s defence industry has struggled to adapt. Its traditional customers also aren’t impressed by its poor performance in Ukraine.

China sanctions red line has shifted westward

21 Mar 2023

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.

Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit

20 Mar 2023

Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.

Capital Calls: Gas station M&A

16 Mar 2023

Concise views on global finance: Canada’s $44 bln Alimentation Couche-Tard pays 3.1 bln euros for TotalEnergies’ European gas station cast-offs.

Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics

23 Feb 2023

It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.

War puts defence firms on investors’ radar

21 Feb 2023

The Ukraine conflict is prompting once-wary capital to engage with defence and aerospace companies. In this Exchange podcast Lorenz Meier, CEO of drone software firm Auterion, accepts ethical issues remain. But defence tech startups should brace for new venture capital cash.

Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven

20 Feb 2023

Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.

IMF’s outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true

10 Feb 2023

The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to avoid a recession this year after contracting by 2.2% in 2022. That is much more optimistic than Moscow’s own forecasts. Unless oil prices stage an improbable rally, investors should trust the locals’ gloomier view.

Capital Calls: Adidas kitchen sink

10 Feb 2023

Concise views on global finance: Shares in the sportswear maker fell 11% amid forecasts of a high-single-digit decline in sales in 2023.

Capital Calls: AI lessons, Robots, Streaming wars

8 Feb 2023

Concise views on global finance: Textbook rental company Chegg becomes an early victim of ChatGPT fears; a short supply of U.S. workers makes automation look even more appealing; Warner Bros Discovery flips the script on its deal logic and will keep HBO Max as a separate service.

Trying to bankrupt Russia could backfire

30 Jan 2023

Now that Western allies are supplying tanks to Ukraine, why not also ramp up sanctions on Russian oil and gas? Because doing so would carry big economic risks – and that could undermine Western willingness to continue its vital military support for Kyiv, says Hugo Dixon.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.