Ukraine/Russia

Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers

27 Feb 2024

The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.

Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost

16 Feb 2024

Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.

Western support for Ukraine will wobble – but hold

22 Dec 2023

Foreign donors have given $66 bln in fiscal aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. A prolonged conflict will test the US and Europe’s solidarity with Kyiv. But allies will keep backing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once they consider what will happen if they don’t.

Capital Calls: Back from the USSR

20 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: Austrian bank Raiffeisen’s 1.5 bln euro plan to swap assets with sanctioned billionaire Oleg Deripaska is smarter than it looks.

EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive

15 Dec 2023

Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.

EU’s Russian asset grab would backfire

14 Dec 2023

Brussels is asking EU governments to funnel to Ukraine the returns on some 180 bln euros of frozen Russian assets. That would only marginally help Kyiv, even if Western support seems to be wavering. And it would open a legal and political can of worms.

The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict

13 Nov 2023

For Kyiv and its allies a stalemate is not as good as a victory. Ukraine would need help shoring up its defences, and there’s a cost to maintaining sanctions against Russia. But triumph is unlikely and a deadlock would still mostly achieve the main goal: denying Moscow victory.

Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work

29 Aug 2023

A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.

Prigozhin exit leaves Putin’s weakness alive

24 Aug 2023

The apparent death of the former convict-turned-chief mercenary comes two months after his mutiny against the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s actions had raised doubts about the stability of the Putin regime and its capacity to get out of the Ukrainian morass. His exit leaves those intact.

Russia’s jumbo rate hike leaves Putin in hot water

15 Aug 2023

A plunge in the rouble and the Kremlin’s prodding forced the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 3.5 percentage points. The currency’s muted reaction leaves the president with more bad choices: restrict welfare spending or hope that even tighter policy can curb inflation.

Black Sea wheat war is sideshow for grain deal

9 Aug 2023

Russia is bombing Ukraine’s Danube ports while Kyiv hits its enemy’s ships in the Black Sea. Bumper harvests can cushion the shock on global wheat prices. But it would be in the two warring countries’ interest to strike a new food transport pact to allow their lucrative exports.

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status

27 Jul 2023

The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.

Egypt’s food tightrope has petrodollar safety net

24 Jul 2023

The collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is a big problem for the world’s top importer of wheat. Egypt’s battered economy will struggle as food prices spike. A $400 mln lifeline from the UAE, flush with oil cash, is one of leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s few crumbs of comfort.

Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab

30 Jun 2023

Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.

Putin’s problems are only minor boost for Ukraine

29 Jun 2023

The Russian president restored a semblance of calm in Moscow after an aborted mutiny. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for the country’s invasion of its neighbour. It’s helpful, but not necessarily transformative, for Kyiv’s resistance.

Markets are far from pricing in peace

26 Jun 2023

Germany’s Rheinmetall and other defence shares fell after an aborted Russian mutiny. Domestic instability may shorten the Ukraine war, curtailing lucrative contracts. Yet chaos in Moscow, Western tensions with China and rising cyberthreats will keep the world amply unsafe.

Europe has more Russian lessons to learn

26 Jun 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny rams home the EU’s need to protect itself from trouble abroad. Leaders meeting this week in Brussels are thinking in more geostrategic terms and may now agree a China policy. But until they act as a bloc they will lack clout, says Hugo Dixon.

Ukraine’s push for speedy rebuild faces obstacles

23 Jun 2023

Kyiv is keen to put aid money to work on an early start of the reconstruction effort. Foreign donors and investors remain wary of the war dangers. A scheme to insure those risks could speed up things, but going too fast could also compromise Ukraine’s long-term recovery effort.

Rebuilding Ukraine: how much and who pays?

22 Jun 2023

Talk of reconstruction may seem premature with Russia still firing missiles at Kyiv. Yet that’s what policymakers and financiers gathered in London this week to debate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the cost, the timetable, and who picks up the tab.