Ukraine/Russia

LNG angst seeps from consumers to producers

27 Mar 2024

A few years ago, supplies of liquefied natural gas were scarce and prices sky-high. Extra capacity arriving this decade means there could soon be a price-sapping glut. Big suppliers like Qatar and Shell have long-term contracts that can ease the pain, but only up to a point.

Capital Calls: Shell and Russia

26 Mar 2024

Concise views on global finance: Russian state giant Gazprom will buy the British energy major’s 27.5% stake in a major Siberian liquefied gas field for the equivalent of $1 bln. Shell is however unlikely to be able to get hold of the cash any time soon.

Ukraine loan is matter of politics and accounting

25 Mar 2024

Lending the country $300 bln backed by its claim for war damages against Russia has several benefits compared to rival ideas for unlocking support. Kyiv’s allies would still need to find the cash, though. Here is how they could navigate the political and financial obstacles.

US nudges EU banks toward clean break with Russia

20 Mar 2024

Austrian lender Raiffeisen dreamt up a $1.6 bln plan to salvage value from its Moscow-based unit. But Washington dislikes it, Reuters has reported. For European banks, upsetting the US could ultimately be more damaging than the write-offs from a speedy Russian exit.

Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin

18 Mar 2024

To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.

Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers

27 Feb 2024

The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.

Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost

16 Feb 2024

Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.

Western support for Ukraine will wobble – but hold

22 Dec 2023

Foreign donors have given $66 bln in fiscal aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. A prolonged conflict will test the US and Europe’s solidarity with Kyiv. But allies will keep backing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once they consider what will happen if they don’t.

Capital Calls: Back from the USSR

20 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: Austrian bank Raiffeisen’s 1.5 bln euro plan to swap assets with sanctioned billionaire Oleg Deripaska is smarter than it looks.

EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive

15 Dec 2023

Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.

EU’s Russian asset grab would backfire

14 Dec 2023

Brussels is asking EU governments to funnel to Ukraine the returns on some 180 bln euros of frozen Russian assets. That would only marginally help Kyiv, even if Western support seems to be wavering. And it would open a legal and political can of worms.

The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict

13 Nov 2023

For Kyiv and its allies a stalemate is not as good as a victory. Ukraine would need help shoring up its defences, and there’s a cost to maintaining sanctions against Russia. But triumph is unlikely and a deadlock would still mostly achieve the main goal: denying Moscow victory.

Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work

29 Aug 2023

A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.

Prigozhin exit leaves Putin’s weakness alive

24 Aug 2023

The apparent death of the former convict-turned-chief mercenary comes two months after his mutiny against the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s actions had raised doubts about the stability of the Putin regime and its capacity to get out of the Ukrainian morass. His exit leaves those intact.

Russia’s jumbo rate hike leaves Putin in hot water

15 Aug 2023

A plunge in the rouble and the Kremlin’s prodding forced the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 3.5 percentage points. The currency’s muted reaction leaves the president with more bad choices: restrict welfare spending or hope that even tighter policy can curb inflation.

Black Sea wheat war is sideshow for grain deal

9 Aug 2023

Russia is bombing Ukraine’s Danube ports while Kyiv hits its enemy’s ships in the Black Sea. Bumper harvests can cushion the shock on global wheat prices. But it would be in the two warring countries’ interest to strike a new food transport pact to allow their lucrative exports.

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status

27 Jul 2023

The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.

Egypt’s food tightrope has petrodollar safety net

24 Jul 2023

The collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is a big problem for the world’s top importer of wheat. Egypt’s battered economy will struggle as food prices spike. A $400 mln lifeline from the UAE, flush with oil cash, is one of leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s few crumbs of comfort.

Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab

30 Jun 2023

Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.