Ukraine/Russia

Western banks face Russian triple whammy

25 Feb 2022

EU and U.S. bank stocks tumbled after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. The conflict may blunt the benefits of higher interest rates and inflict losses on cross-border loans. In a worst-case scenario, Raiffeisen, UniCredit and SocGen could have to write off their Russian units.

Russia’s wheat clout can hit world where it hurts

25 Feb 2022

The grain’s price hit a record high after the invasion of Ukraine, source of 8% of world exports. A long conflict in a country called the “breadbasket of Europe” would mean global shortfalls. President Vladimir Putin would cause even more disruptions if he curbed Russian exports.

China’s yuan plausibly mimics a safe-haven asset

25 Feb 2022

The currency, once subject to speculative swings, has stayed stable as Russia attacks Ukraine. It’s buttressed by a big trade surplus and central bank conservatism, both of which might change, but it has clearly gained traction with serious investors.

Russia gets the Huawei treatment, on steroids

24 Feb 2022

The U.S. government plans to cut the country off from American microchips, telecoms gear and other items. It’s a grander version of the trade curbs that hobbled China’s telecom giant Huawei, and could sting the Russian economy more than financial sanctions.

American LNG burns even brighter

24 Feb 2022

Nearly 40% of European gas comes from Russia, and LNG facilities elsewhere are already largely booked. Still, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will boost booming liquefied gas exports. Replacing even part would mean long-term surety for firms like Cheniere itching to grow.

Viewsroom: Russia and Ukraine, Credit Suisse woes

24 Feb 2022

As President Vladimir Putin launches the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two and the West prepares its response, Dasha Afanasieva and Gina Chon discuss what comes next. And Liam Proud explains how an embarrassing data leak is the Swiss bank’s latest headache.

Ukraine war gives impetus to climate backsliders

24 Feb 2022

Politicians are supposed to be fast-tracking decarbonisation. Russia’s invasion may speed the long-term shift to renewable energy. But it could also empower fossil fuel fans to ease energy security fears via new supply. Investors, lured by high crude prices, may go along with it.

Bond market sends flawed signals on U.S. economy

24 Feb 2022

A dash to safe havens means Treasuries are in big demand. But the yield curve is sending the same messages it was before Russia invaded Ukraine: that Fed rate hikes may trigger recession and that policy rates won’t rise much above 2%. Both presumptions could be wrong.

West has some cover to ramp up Russian sanctions

24 Feb 2022

Sberbank and VTB halved after troops invaded Ukraine, suggesting Moscow’s banks and oligarchs may end up pariahs, like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Russian tit-for-tat might hit European gas supplies. The one comfort is that end of winter makes it less of an immediate problem.

Putin prods planet into riskier post-pandemic funk

24 Feb 2022

The Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine exposes the limit of sanctions in deterring conflict. The soaring oil price will punch still-fragile economies as they recover from Covid-19, testing Western unity. Global markets for energy and technology face further fragmentation.

China has already won, and lost, in Ukraine

24 Feb 2022

Russia's assault embarrasses Beijing, which has perhaps inadvertently backed a foreign invasion despite its mantra of sovereign non-interference. But the war will distract the West and boost China’s leverage over a key energy supplier.

Bitcoin’s true colours shine in stampede to safety

23 Feb 2022

The cryptocurrency fell 5% as conflict in Ukraine flared, undermining the case for it to be a gold-like refuge. Even earlier, it moved too closely in synch with equities to be much use as a hedge. It comes into its own, however, as an amplifier of ups and downs in riskier assets.

Hot war may get hotter through cyber battles

22 Feb 2022

Harsh Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine could cause collateral damage. As payback, Moscow may hack American energy firms and banks. U.S. agencies are shoring up cyber capabilities. But hackers only need to be lucky once, and retaliation leaves companies in the crossfire.

Risk of war implies lasting Russia discount

22 Feb 2022

Groups like Sberbank plunged after President Vladimir Putin sent tanks into two Ukrainian regions, although lame European sanctions helped them recover. Even if the Kremlin leader halts his military advance, the threat of tougher penalties will linger over Russian assets.

Vladimir Putin muscles onto central banker agendas

22 Feb 2022

Russia’s president formally ordered troops into two separatist regions of Ukraine, raising the spectre of war. As oil surges toward $100 a barrel, riskier assets are falling out of favour. Any retaliation, including sanctions, could further fuel inflationary fires.

Oligarch sanctions with teeth may yet lack bite

17 Feb 2022

Britain has widened the ways rich Russians can effectively be banned from its shores via sanctions. While less bad than the worst U.S. strictures, they would make life much harder for Russia’s top companies and their overlords. But only if the UK actually uses its new powers.

Viewsroom: Ukraine, ECB and India’s giant insurer

17 Feb 2022

Worries about an invasion of Ukraine have rattled markets, but Dasha Afanasieva says Russian investors are more sanguine. The European Central Bank faces a tougher inflation juggling act, argues Swaha Pattanaik. And Una Galani discusses the listing of India’s Life Insurance Corp.

Russian investors display war chat scepticism

14 Feb 2022

Global stocks dropped and government bonds rose after the U.S. said Moscow could invade Ukraine at any time. Though the rouble and shares in lender Sberbank declined, Russian assets aren’t pricing in the toughest economic sanctions. If war is imminent, there’s more pain to come.

Oil dims hope central bankers will walk fine line

28 Jan 2022

Brent crude topped $91 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Rate-setters can usually ignore temporary jumps, but not when inflation is already high. Fed boss Jay Powell and global peers will struggle to hike rates enough to curb price pressures without stifling growth.