Ukraine/Russia

Macron lacks the money to put where his mouth is

20 Mar 2025

The French leader wants Europe to boost defence spending. But with debt at 115% of GDP, France can’t easily find the 40 bln euros it needs to cover its share of the burden. The bloc’s strategic plans may be delayed by the fiscal woes of its main military power.

EU’s defence fund is more toy gun than bazooka

18 Mar 2025

The European Commission plans to extend 150 bln euros’ worth of subsidised loans to member states to beef up their military. Only a few countries may tap the facility. Adding conditionality would shrink its attractiveness further. As it is, it is more symbolic than effective.

Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace

17 Mar 2025

After years of overheating, the $2 trln economy risks a hard landing if President Vladimir Putin ends his Ukraine war. A credit boom presages a default wave, while long-term demographic problems have worsened. All the more reason for Putin to avoid switching off the war machine.

EU’s big Starlink headache is time, not money

14 Mar 2025

Investors seem confident $3 bln Anglo-French satellite group Eutelsat can replace Elon Musk’s company on Ukraine’s front lines. The swap could be costly, but this won’t deter a newly defence-focused EU. Whether the company can deploy what’s needed quick enough is another matter.

Germany’s fiscal pivot gives Europe rare hope

13 Mar 2025

The nation known for anti-deficit orthodoxy faces an economic slowdown and US antagonism. Likely Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s response: boost spending by more than 500 bln euros. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast Breakingviews columnists discuss the jolt to the whole continent.

EU firms’ barriers to Russia re-entry are sky-high

10 Mar 2025

Groups like Renault and Inditex quit the country after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Contracts make it theoretically feasible for them to return. But even if a peace deal proves possible, the risks are too great for European groups to go back.

Europe has money but few weapons for Ukraine

4 Mar 2025

US President Donald Trump has paused his country’s military support for Ukraine. Europe has the means to make up for it and plans to spend an extra $340 bln a year on its defence. But Kyiv still needs American weapons, which may force Europe to buy directly from the US.

Europe’s defence push provides cover for tax raid

3 Mar 2025

US hostility to its erstwhile European allies heightens the need for the continent to rearm. Extra spending increases pressure on already stretched finances. But leaders who gathered in London over the weekend have a consolation of sorts: the crisis is an excuse to raise taxes.

How to raise $420 bln a year for Europe’s defence

24 Feb 2025

The partial breakdown in the transatlantic alliance means the continent may need to double its defence spending. The money will have to come from a mixture of national budgets, European Union funds and perhaps a new vehicle. Many sacred cows will be slaughtered on the way.

Tank maker’s surge depends on political air cover

18 Feb 2025

Shares in $43 bln Rheinmetall have outperformed chip darling Nvidia since 2021 and doubled since the US election. Investors are implicitly assuming Europe will lift defence spending to at least 3% of GDP while hugely favouring the German firm. They could be wrong on either front.

EU joint defence debt has many hoops to go through

18 Feb 2025

European powers are contemplating the idea of a common borrowing vehicle to finance a big hike in military spending. But they need to agree on which EU countries are involved, and how to include the UK. In any case, it would only delay the fiscal cost of a major defence push.

Europe and Trump risk Russian sanctions showdown

17 Feb 2025

The US president’s wish for a quick truce in Ukraine could prompt him to lift the measures slapped on Russia by Washington since 2014. The EU and UK would be loath to follow suit, but that would leave them in a tight spot, notably if it helps Putin rebuild his military.

Ukraine peace talks are Europe’s moment of truth

17 Feb 2025

Since World War Two ended, the continent has resisted Russia by relying on its big brother in the United States. But now it faces pressure from Washington as well as from Moscow. Standing up to both while standing by Kyiv will depend on money, determination, and political unity.

Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

13 Feb 2025

President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may end Moscow’s war. For the EU this won’t mean lower defence spending. The likely end of the US security blanket, and an emboldened Russia, will force Europeans to accelerate their military overhaul.

The economics of war and peace in Ukraine

28 Jan 2025

It’s almost three years since Russia invaded, unleashing death and devastation. In this live edition of The Big View podcast, economist and former minister Tymofiy Mylovanov talks about the damage to both sides, the effect of sanctions, and what a peace deal might look like.

Europe’s US gas pivot is a work in progress

15 Jan 2025

The continent has been shifting its fossil fuel imports from Russia to those across the Atlantic. In theory, the European Union could offset President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats by ramping these up. But with limited scope to do so, the hike may instead come from Moscow.

Austria’s right turn adds sand to EU-Ukraine gears

14 Jan 2025

The appointment of right-wing leader Herbert Kickl as chancellor would strengthen Europe’s pro-Putin, eurosceptic club. The group including Hungary and Slovakia is too small to block most EU policies. But Brussels may move more slowly on aid to Ukraine or Russia sanctions.

Russia oil sanctions cut Trump wiggle room on Iran

13 Jan 2025

The US has targeted tankers selling Russian oil to Asia, prompting a crude price spike. The actual impact is uncertain, and sanctions offer leverage against Moscow in a Ukraine peace deal. But a tighter oil market cuts across President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to squeeze Iran.

Risk and resilience are the watchwords for 2025

6 Jan 2025

In the past five years, the world economy has weathered disease and war. As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, the range of possible outcomes is wider than ever. Hefty sovereign debts and pumped-up stocks depend on the planet once again coping with fresh shocks.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.