U.S. Election

Markets lose virus immunity with Trump diagnosis

2 Oct 2020

The U.S. president said he tested positive for Covid-19. How this will affect the outcome of the election is unknown. Ditto whether it spreads further through Trump’s cabinet. The Fed has helped prop up markets so far. Investors are on their own in this uncharted territory.

Cash is king again in race to the White House

1 Oct 2020

Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 even though her war chest was bigger. But the impact of live rallies and the free airtime he gets as president have been tainted by Covid-19. Campaign finance matters more now, and Trump is lagging – even more so after Tuesday’s debate.

Viewsroom: Disastrous debate, Italian soccer deal

1 Oct 2020

The first of the U.S. presidential debates was shambolic, with almost no substance on economic policy for investors or markets to sink their teeth into. On a lighter front, though, Italy’s Serie A soccer league has a chance to regain its glory. Breakingviews columnists discuss.

Fit M&A market sets up sprint to U.S. election

30 Sep 2020

Dealmaking hit $1 trln this summer, dismissing fears Covid-19 might hobble the market for a year or more. Rebounding stocks and CEO spirits helped. Chances are many will rush to find targets before November’s presidential vote. That’ll secure a surprisingly good year for bankers.

Debate chaos is a gift for a conflicted Biden

30 Sep 2020

President Trump turned his face-off against his Democratic rival into a messy brawl, repeatedly interrupting from the get-go. That saved Joe Biden from being put on the spot over his greatest weakness: the need to appeal to moderates while not upsetting progressives.

Obamacare still has some of its nine lives left

28 Sep 2020

A more conservative Supreme Court may pose a challenge to the law that expanded healthcare coverage to over 16 mln uninsured Americans. Yet for all its enemies, the act has benefited insurers, won over voters, and stopped short of capping prices. That may make it harder to kill.

Trump’s tax avoidance is a real election issue

28 Sep 2020

The U.S. president paid just $750 in federal taxes the year he was elected thanks to losses and deductions, according to the New York Times. Assume it's all legitimate and it shows how America's tax code favors corporations and the very rich. If voters want, they can change that.

U.S. election dispute may demand months of hedging

25 Sep 2020

Investors are braced for an uncertain result in November's presidential vote. Bush v. Gore 20 years ago is a tame example. A confused, knife-edge battle in 1876 may be more relevant: The winner emerged only in March. Modern technology could even make things worse.

Viewsroom: The dream team to fix America’s economy

24 Sep 2020

As voters head into the final stretch of the U.S. presidential election, Breakingviews has released a new interactive tool to help Joe Biden or Donald Trump pick a cabinet of economic all-stars. Listen to our picks for the battling candidates and learn how the graphic works.

Angst-ridden end to 2020 is written into options

23 Sep 2020

As if Covid-19 hadn’t sparked enough market gyrations, the next three months bring U.S. elections, tense UK-EU trade talks, and more. Central bankers are keeping bonds on a tight leash so jitters will be channelled into currencies. That is already showing up in FX option prices.

Joe Biden has edge in assembling economic talent

22 Sep 2020

If the former vice president wins in November, he’ll have a bevy of business execs and ex-bureaucrats to help him. Rival President Donald Trump has cycled through dozens of aides, leaving him a hollow bench. Breakingviews imagines their economic roster in an interactive graphic.

Elizabeth Warren may be least of Wall St worries

9 Sep 2020

The liberal U.S. senator could head the Treasury if Joe Biden wins the presidential election. Bank bosses love to hate her perceived heavy regulatory hand. But acolytes placed at agencies more directly involved in oversight would be better suited to rattle the finance world.

Corona Capital: U.S. debt, Junk bonds, Vaccines

3 Sep 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. debt rises to levels not seen since World War Two; this year’s returns on high-yield debt turn positive despite the coronavirus; and Donald Trump’s hope of a vaccine by Nov. 1 is dangerously political.

Viewsroom: Republicans hammer it home

28 Aug 2020

At their quadrennial convention, the GOP didn’t give much insight into what four more years of Trump would look like. But they were consistent in battering the Democrats and Joe Biden as a Trojan horse for socialism and other ills. Rob Cox, John Foley and Anna Szymanski recap.

Cox: Republicans mostly rant about fake socialism

28 Aug 2020

The GOP wrapped up a four-day confab-cum-reality TV show combining glowing testimonials about Trump’s achievements with venom against his opponents. Yet the greatest enemy was a phantom economic threat. America’s rich-world allies see socialism as normal, not a disaster.

Viewsroom: Democrats pitch normalcy first

21 Aug 2020

The Democratic National Convention wound up four days of speeches and spectacle with no unforced errors, a broadly appealing economic message and, above all, a call for a restoration of broken norms. Next up, the Republicans. Rob Cox, John Foley and Anna Szymanski recap.

Cox: Reverting to mean is weak economic message

21 Aug 2020

Joe Biden and the Democrats pitched a return to the good old ways at their quadrennial convention. Even Obama’s unconventional attack on his successor looked back as much as forward. For a party that usually favours change, it’s a risky bet on the depths of Trump fatigue.

Election is bad reason for U.S. postal service fix

18 Aug 2020

The government-backed snail-mail courier is in a political firestorm that questions its viability. Sure it’s in secular decline. But relatively speaking, it isn’t doing horribly and its business is constitutionally protected. Cost adjustments are needed – but not in this context.

Viewsroom: Biden takes corporate succession cue

14 Aug 2020

The presumptive Democratic candidate to challenge Donald Trump for the presidency chose California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Gina Chon and Rob Cox discuss the parallels with corporate succession planning and what the choice says about economic policy.

Biden VP will be just one possible 2024 candidate

11 Aug 2020

The Democratic presidential pick chose Kamala Harris as his running mate. His age gives the role more standing. But other White House wannabes may also land senior government jobs if Biden wins in November. Call it "Team of Rivals" melded with a deep bench like JPMorgan's.