U.S. Election

Billionaire donors outrank companies in Washington

14 Jan 2021

Firms from JPMorgan to AT&T are rethinking political donations after last week's Capitol violence. That will dent lawmakers' coffers. But it’s people like the late Sheldon Adelson and Mike Bloomberg who have far deeper pockets, and the power to make politicians sit up and listen.

Biden’s SEC pick is ominous sign for Wall St

13 Jan 2021

Former banker-turned-industry critic Gary Gensler will be a thorn in the finance industry’s side if he takes the helm at the U.S. watchdog. He rammed through Dodd-Frank reforms when he was CFTC chair. In his new post, tougher enforcement is likely, which will cheer progressives.

Yellen can kick off Biden’s more open government

7 Jan 2021

The $7 mln the former Fed chief earned giving speeches to Wall Street and other firms could haunt Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary. For one, she’ll need progressives to back her policies. Transparency, like releasing transcripts of those talks, could help set the right tone.

America’s safe-haven status gets violent test

6 Jan 2021

An invasion of the seat of government by supporters of a president who defies democratic principles ought to worry those who treat dollar assets as a sanctuary. What matters for investors is whether the U.S. system prevails. Even if it does, they should not assume it always will.

Georgia vote may give companies half-full glass

6 Jan 2021

Democrats could eke out a Senate majority in a runoff race that’s too close to call. The slim margin would hand more power to moderates on issues like green energy and taxes, in turn helping offset greater scrutiny of firms. Either way, Corporate America can avoid the worst.

Currency manipulator label is Trump gift to Biden

16 Dec 2020

The U.S. Treasury says Switzerland and Vietnam are skewing their currencies’ value against the dollar. Technically, it’s right. The president-elect can ignore this mostly symbolic move when he takes power in a month. Then again, some modest trade friction may be useful at home.

Janet Yellen’s Treasury would be tough M&A arbiter

3 Dec 2020

The former Fed chair would oversee U.S. national security deal reviews if she becomes Treasury chief. She will likely rely on deputies with deep experience in cracking down in that area. Chinese-owned TikTok may be the first test and could show a more orderly but harder process.

Biden’s diverse cabinet is only a first step

1 Dec 2020

Janet Yellen may be the first woman to lead Treasury in a cabinet that better reflects America. The government has a sad record on that front. The next task is to tackle related challenges like women leaving the workforce, financial inclusion and income inequality.

Janet Yellen will bring back benign dollar neglect

30 Nov 2020

President-elect Joe Biden’s Treasury secretary pick is going to have less sway over the currency than she did as Fed boss. Yellen is likely to stick to bland mantras and focus on getting fiscal policy right. That will be a welcome change from the tack taken under Donald Trump.

The Exchange: Post-Covid, post-Trump mega-trends

24 Nov 2020

Supply chains may become more diverse or shorter, tech companies with few hard assets will continue to thrive, and the transition away from fossil fuels will present opportunities. Taimur Hyat, COO of $1.4 trln asset manager PGIM, looks to the future with Richard Beales.

Cox: Donald Trump is the new Benjamin Harrison

19 Nov 2020

The president’s refusal to concede electoral defeat raises the ghost of Grover Cleveland, who served two non-consecutive terms in the 19th Century. Trump’s punishing tariffs and profligate budgets make him more like Harrison, the mostly forgotten man that Cleveland bookended.

The Exchange: Investing in a new macroeconomic era

17 Nov 2020

The U.S. faces a paradigm shift, as the era of monetary policy dominance ends and fiscal action becomes the major driver of growth. So argues Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates. He says this means rethinking one’s approach to asset classes.

Stricken polls can work to investors’ advantage

13 Nov 2020

Opinion surveys once again underestimated Republican support in the U.S. presidential election. Yet backup options, like economy-based models and prediction markets, have their own problems. Investors’ safest bet is to watch the polls – then apply their own analytical scepticism.

Biden’s finance squad is a progressive fig leaf

12 Nov 2020

Wall Street alumni are notably lacking in the transition teams sizing up bodies like the Treasury. But bankers should still have the president-elect’s ear. Amplifying left-leaning voices may signal new priorities, like racial inequities, but not a finance-unfriendly agenda.

TikTok mess is a trap for America’s next president

11 Nov 2020

A deadline for Chinese owner ByteDance to sell the app’s U.S. business by Nov. 12 may not be binding after Donald Trump lost the election. But the big question remains: what to do with an internet firm that’s deemed a security risk? Joe Biden may not find it any easier to answer.

Billionaires hang on Georgia as U.S. tax firewall

10 Nov 2020

Donors like Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman have already given millions to keep the Senate in Republican hands. Now that effort will focus on the Peach State with two runoff races in January. Much is at stake, both for Wall Street’s highest paid and for the companies themselves.

U.S. Latino vote shows economic progress relative

10 Nov 2020

Support for Donald Trump among Hispanics jumped in Florida and Texas where many have flourished economically since 2016. But Arizona, where income inequality is more apparent, tilted leftward. Joe Biden wants to close the wealth gap, which helps the Democrats, at least for now.

Cox: American progress hangs on geriatric trinity

9 Nov 2020

Usually presidents wait until clinching a second term to focus on how they’ll be remembered in history. At almost 78 Biden must govern as if he has one chance to make his mark. Ditto his aging foil in the Senate and ally in the House. There may be less gridlock than expected.

The Donald Trump show will continue broadcasting

9 Nov 2020

The president may have lost the White House. But an army of Twitter followers and right-wing media will ensure him a platform. That will serve his many interests, from boosting his businesses and staving off looming debt payments to acting as a thorn in the side of his successor.

WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism

9 Nov 2020

The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.