U.S. Election

How the US election affects the rest of the world

29 Oct 2024

Next week, voters will choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Their decision will impact governments, companies and investors outside the US. In this episode of The Big View podcast, geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham explains why markets misjudge the possible turmoil.

Crypto election gusher has bipartisan payoff

28 Oct 2024

Digital currency businesses spent $200 mln in political donations, an absurd amount even compared to unions and Big Oil. Harris and Trump have different approaches, but both are friendlier than Biden. The spending will give crypto regulation legitimacy after the election.

Elon Musk creates a must-win election

25 Oct 2024

The Tesla chief’s $840 bln EV maker would fare well or better under a Democratic president. But the temptation to become a global mastermind outside of autos is too strong — enough for Musk to back Donald Trump and gamble on the future of his federal contracts.

Trump stumbles onto a useful globalist policy

22 Oct 2024

The protectionist presidential candidate floated an exemption for 4.4 mln US citizens living abroad from paying some $12 bln of income tax at home. It would streamline an unwieldy patchwork system for expatriates. And if structured properly, it might even help prevent evasion.

US economy is partying, but voters are hungover

16 Oct 2024

Full employment and subdued inflation have the economy in its best shape in years. Despite a rocky Biden tenure, Kamala Harris enters the election with a chance to blunt Trump’s advantages. But bruised consumer feelings – and the overall wealth picture – are getting in the way.

Kamala Harris’ economic plan bows to realities

27 Sep 2024

Unlike Biden's crisis-sized agenda, Harris faces fiscal headwinds and divided government - if she manages to win. Promises of tax credits for small businesses and families, along with a deal on taxes with Republicans, are the most she's promising, and most she can deliver.

Trump lays out gluttonous tax-break smorgasbord

25 Sep 2024

The US presidential candidate has floated an array of handouts for all. His latest giveaway: unwinding the same cap on state and local deductions that he himself enacted. Add exemptions on worker tips, overtime and Social Security, and the sum exceeds $7 trln of fiscal ruin.

There’s no debate: big US spending is a tough sell

11 Sep 2024

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris squared off on immigration, abortion and, strangely, pets. Missing, however, were any grand fiscal plans. Promises of tax cuts and tariffs would cost the government less, after infrastructure, Covid-19 and other initiatives chewed up some $13 trln.

Trump’s SWF size envy not grounded in reality

6 Sep 2024

Sovereign wealth funds are created when countries run consistent budget surpluses and cash can be redirected towards creating long-term income. That’s not even close to a luxury the US has. Done poorly, they become a honey pot for politicians to reward the connected.

Why Kamala Harris could be good for the planet

3 Sep 2024

The American vice president is being coy about how she will fight climate change if she beats Donald Trump to the White House. But Harris would have scope to step up action both at home and abroad – especially if the Democrats also do well in November’s congressional elections.

Kamalanomics contains too much of some good things

16 Aug 2024

Ahead of the Democratic convention next week, Kamala Harris is unveiling plans to unstick the housing market, curb food prices and lower taxes. Cutting red tape and other steps to encourage more homebuilding is sensible, but excessive goodies for buyers risks stoking inflation.

Donald Trump may dent but not dethrone King Dollar

26 Jul 2024

The US currency’s long-predicted demise has so far failed to materialise. The former president’s possible return to the White House is a reason to reconsider. While the greenback remains unassailable as the de facto global standard, its days of cyclical strength may be numbered.

Dollar-cost averaging is Democrat donor watchword

22 Jul 2024

US President Joe Biden’s backers were like owners of a sinking stock, stuck in a flailing investment aided little by more cash. His exit and nod to Vice President Kamala Harris drew $50 mln of new money. Spending now offers a reset and the lure of influence in a renewed campaign.

Joe Biden displays power and risks of incumbency

21 Jul 2024

The US president will not run for re-election, a momentous decision that may have come too late to mitigate damage to his party. Unlike corporate leaders, a sitting commander-in-chief is almost impossible to dislodge. Biden’s replacement will face Donald Trump without that grip.

Trump 2.0 might be the same, but much more

18 Jul 2024

After an earth-shaking few weeks in US politics, the Republican presidential candidate’s odds of returning to the White House look higher. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what a second term might look like, and why Trump might be empowered this time.

Silicon Valley daredevils ride or die with Trump

17 Jul 2024

Marc Andreessen, Elon Musk and other tech entrepreneurs are lining up behind the former US president. Maybe there’s ideological alignment, but naked self-interest and contrarian biases probably play a part, too. The downside in politics, however, is far bigger than in business.

World polycrisis hangs on US politics

15 Jul 2024

The shocking attempted assassination of Donald Trump doesn’t just unveil the fragility of the US political environment. The globe also has much at stake in the outcome of November’s election. A victory for the former president would carry risks for Ukraine, trade and the planet.

Life-or-death moments embolden ‘America First’

14 Jul 2024

After a failed attempt on the life of presidential hopeful Donald Trump, his oft-fractious party is rallying. The effect on a race until now defined by broad public disdain is unclear. But as Trump’s support hardens, so too will polarization, both within the country and overseas.

Wall Street places reluctant bet on Trump

11 Jul 2024

Financial folk prefer Republicans over Democrats when it comes to political donations. They dislike President Joe Biden’s regulatory drive. But Donald Trump’s return could roil markets, widen divisions and expand deficits. No wonder some would prefer one of their own in the race.

Trump’s gains supercharge higher-for-longer trade

3 Jul 2024

The former president’s improved odds of re-election are pushing up yields on longer-term Treasury bonds. His tax and trade agenda would add to inflationary pressure, keeping rates high. But an unpredictable race and uncertainty about Trump’s policies will leave investors on edge.