U.S. Election

Green energy will be a smart contrarian trade

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s dislike of offshore wind and threats to axe subsidies imply the renewable sector is one to swerve in 2025. Yet the US president-elect is primarily focused on keeping energy costs low. If permitting gets sped up, Big Tech-driven demand could help green power too.

Trump’s tariff gambit doesn’t have to make sense

26 Nov 2024

Economists pencilled in maximum levies of 20% but the president-elect is now promising 25% for Mexico and Canada and a fresh 10% for China. His linking of those to fentanyl flows to the US shows taxes are a cudgel to use at will, not just a tool for rebalancing global trade.

Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes

20 Nov 2024

US consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, helping President-elect Donald Trump win the White House. His policies, though, may stoke inflation. Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar like a hot economy. But a rising deficit could upset debt investors and hit the current market stars.

Trump trades will run into Trump reality

14 Nov 2024

The president-elect’s victory sparked wild euphoria in markets. Now comes the realization that tariffs and immigration crackdowns threaten major costs, including the return of inflation. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the globe-spanning concerns.

Chinese markets hope and prepare for the best

12 Nov 2024

Stocks shrugged off both Trump’s win and an underwhelming stimulus package for growth in the People's Republic. The buoyancy reflects a risky bet the US won't apply a full 60% trade tariff and optimism that China is better equipped than most countries to deal with higher duties.

The power and peril of American economic warfare

12 Nov 2024

Successive US presidents have wielded sanctions and export controls against rival nations. Donald Trump promises further escalation. In this episode of the Big View podcast, political scientist Henry Farrell explains how weaponizing finance and technology can be self-defeating.

COP29 will highlight bifurcated energy transitions

12 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s election victory casts a pall over the UN climate confab in Baku. It will also make raising $1 trln a year from rich states to decarbonise the developing world even harder. But his return will also hasten a shift East and South in the fight against global warming.

Control of Congress will bolster second Trump term

11 Nov 2024

Winning the House of Representatives as well as the Senate would let the new US president build on his $4 trln 2017 tax cut and pass laws on immigration and healthcare. Republican infighting thwarted bigger changes last time. But the party is now more aligned with Trump’s agenda.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

Trump will speed China’s journey to self-reliance

8 Nov 2024

Consumption's 59% share of GDP is rising on weak investment. Tariffs threatened by the US president-elect will accelerate the shift to domestic demand. Premier Xi Jinping desires a China less dependent on foreign markets. He may get one, though more abruptly than he envisioned.

Fed’s victory lap runs into Trump-shaped detour

7 Nov 2024

The FOMC cut rates again, two days after the ex-president was voted back into office. His avowed higher tariffs and renewed tax cuts jeopardize the work that lowered inflation to 2%, alongside 4% unemployment. Threats to central bank independence also add to risks of stagflation.

Trump 2.0: taxes, tensions, tariffs, turbulence

7 Nov 2024

In a decisive comeback victory for his third White House run, Donald Trump notched gains across a wide set of voters and issues. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the chaotic consequences now looming worldwide.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

China wields weak hand in Trump’s Trade War II

7 Nov 2024

The country would suffer a severe blow if the self-styled ‘Tariff Man’ imposes a 60% US levy on Chinese goods. Trade tensions will be harder to de-escalate this time, and Beijing’s reliance on exports to offset slowing GDP growth leaves the $18 trln economy highly vulnerable.

Elon Musk’s biggest conflict is with Donald Trump

6 Nov 2024

The CEO was enriched Wednesday after shares of Tesla rose by $100 bln following Trump’s victory. From contracts to regulations, Musk’s political and business interests worryingly overlap. Eventually he could become the nexus of Chinese and US leaders’ fractious whims.

Europe is unprepared for the Trump storm

6 Nov 2024

The continent faces tariffs and wavering US defence commitments after the Republican candidate clinched the White House. The bloc’s already sluggish economies will suffer. Meanwhile, divided politics will hinder Europe’s capacity to deal with the shock.

Trump re-election entrenches global instability

6 Nov 2024

The former president beat Kamala Harris to return to the White House. Hopes for tax cuts and deregulation will juice short-term asset values. But his love of tariffs and authoritarian instincts set the US – and world – on a perilous path. Unlike last time, it may not be reversed.

Chinese planners face an anxious wait

5 Nov 2024

The outlook for trade will worsen regardless of who wins the US election. It may take months for the new president’s policies to take shape. Beijing also needs time to assess how well its plan to stimulate its $18 trln economy is working. No point wielding any bazookas yet.

Power brokers lose their grip on US politics

4 Nov 2024

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos or Larry Fink are tiptoeing around Tuesday’s vote for good reason. A Kamala Harris victory offers thin hope of easing tough policy. Donald Trump promises tax cuts but threatens unpredictable backlash. Fear is trumping hope, even in the boardroom.

Robust banks impair pleas for lighter regulation

31 Oct 2024

Lenders on both sides of the Atlantic are doing relatively well, despite concerns over the effect of shifting rates. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what is driving growth, and why CEOs are simultaneously bemoaning increased scrutiny from watchdogs.