Transportation

The end of gasoline-powered cars is nigh. Soonish.

28 Jan 2019

Sales of electric vehicles doubled last year while the overall market stagnated. China and California led the charge. The internal combustion engine still dominates, but demographics, governance and economics suggest that dynamic is not far from breaking hard.

EU can afford to shunt Siemens-Alstom to a siding

18 Jan 2019

Margrethe Vestager may well block the rail groups’ merger. That would rile German and French politicians yearning for a European champion to face down distant fears of Chinese dominance. But if the antitrust tsar pulls the plug, neither Siemens nor Alstom would suffer too much.

Shutdown tests U.S. companies’ stress filters

16 Jan 2019

Delta Air Lines says it loses $25 mln of revenue every month the government stays closed. Big deal. Like the market plunge that hit bank earnings, the shutdown has high visibility but little lasting impact. There are bigger risks to valuations that are harder to visualize.

Swiss $4 bln freight battle has questionable cargo

16 Jan 2019

Activist investor Cevian has helped solicit a bid for subscale freight group Panalpina. Would-be owner DSV could face competition from Switzerland’s Kuehne + Nagel, handing shareholders a sweeter price. It’s less clear that either will make a return from a much higher offer.

Lyft, Uber IPOs will drain Tesla’s scarcity value

3 Jan 2019

Electric vehicles check boxes for sustainability-minded investors. But the ride-hailing firms’ ubiquity and self-driving ambitions will give U.S. public shareholders new options beyond Elon Musk’s carmaker. Lyft’s growth and ESG credentials could make it the most desirable ride.

German takeaway truce delivers tasty value treat

21 Dec 2018

Delivery Hero is selling its German business to rival Takeaway.com for 930 mln euros. As with Uber's capitulation to Didi in China's car-share wars, it means an end to cutthroat competition in another gig-economy market - and relief for both companies' investors.

Shared bike wipeout indicts China’s startup model

20 Dec 2018

Ofo is struggling to refund millions of rider deposits, media report. The $2 bln firm, led by a young, stubborn founder, rushed for market share regardless of cost, enabled by indulgent backers like Alibaba. China's wasteful tech spending may be overdue a big bankruptcy.

East Africa will buck global great rift trend

20 Dec 2018

Twenty-five years after genocide, Rwanda’s economy is motoring sufficiently to need new markets. The potential inclusion of Ethiopia would make East Africa a single market of 250 million people. If it prospers, it would provide a useful counterpoint to global balkanisation.

Uber and Lyft race to get through open IPO window

10 Dec 2018

The ride-hailing apps are jockeying for pole position with public offering filings. Economic worries have put the broad market in a correction and Moderna’s plunge after a $7.6 bln IPO shows demand for cash-burning firms is limited. This duel risks a nasty collision with reality.

Royal Mail’s last valuation crutch looks shaky

15 Nov 2018

The UK postal firm’s shares fell after it reported a 25 pct drop in operating profit. Rising costs, falling letter volumes and the need to invest will make it hard for the group to cover its generous dividend. A lower payout would give investors little reason to own the stock.

Exclusive: FedEx drops NRA deal by snail-mail

30 Oct 2018

The shipping giant is ending discounts for the U.S. gun-lobby group’s members, eight months after other firms ditched similar schemes. FedEx says it’s an economic decision, not a response to mass shootings. Even so, it suggests offending the NRA is no longer bad for business.

Car parts M&A starts looking more compelling

26 Oct 2018

France’s Valeo is the latest in the auto sector to issue a profit warning, sending its shares down by a fifth. Crashing valuations might help deals make more financial sense. Rival Faurecia’s purchase of Japanese peer Clarion shows how the fleetest can exploit the opportunity.

Hadas: Six economic reasons to hate Uber

25 Oct 2018

Economists are wrong to drool over the car service provider as an exemplar of free markets. This financial zombie has destructive effects on transit, a dysfunctional strategy and an antisocial approach to regulation. Also, it hurts its workers and makes investors look foolish.

Daimler and Ford dividends have whiff of roadkill

24 Oct 2018

The duo are the car sector's worst stock market performers this year and on track to pay out a higher share of earnings than peers. They will have to dip into cash reserves to do so. Weak sales and investments in electric and autonomous vehicles make such largesse unsustainable.

China’s tech hub warrants an upgrade from Beijing

22 Oct 2018

Shenzhen has morphed from tiny market town to a $320 bln economy. Conferring a province-like status on it would boost Xi Jinping’s plans to integrate the surrounding region. Having more power in the capital amid a trade war also could help champion the likes of Tencent and DJI.

Activists may soon arrive by truckloads to Germany

9 Oct 2018

Whether uppity investors will rattle the cages of VW and Daimler depends on how they separate their commercial-vehicles arms. Resorting to standard, crummy German governance through partial listings, rather than clean-break spinoffs, will earn them the enmity of investors.

Royal Mail’s strategy gets lost in the post

2 Oct 2018

The delivery service partly blames its profit warning on poor worker productivity. While keeping a progressive dividend pledge will please investors irked by its new CEO’s pay, Royal Mail needs more investment to solve its operating issues. It could wind up doing the opposite.

Uber’s profitability recipe starts with Deliveroo

21 Sep 2018

The taxi app may buy the $2 bln European food-delivery group, says Bloomberg. It’s a hefty mouthful for a company that’s steered clear of large dealmaking. As long as Uber Eats and Deliveroo are tearing chunks off each other, though, investors have little chance of a full belly.

New York’s trouble: a total lack of tunnel vision

12 Sep 2018

The city’s commuters already know that its transport system is hanging by a thread. A halted project to build new tunnels underneath the Hudson river shows there are ways to make things better, but maybe not the will. Political squabbling is an obstacle, but not the only one.

BMW has good reason to take driver seat in China

20 Aug 2018

The German auto group may raise its stake in its Chinese JV, after the state moved to scrap foreign ownership rules. Spending $3.6 bln now would boost margins and give it a greater share of profit from China-made cars. That’s particularly valuable given U.S. trade tensions.