Trade

Western firms’ Chinese red lines are not their own

2 Dec 2022

Anti-lockdown protests have got boards pondering what to do in case of an escalation. For companies like Tesla and LVMH the Chinese market is probably too crucial to consider an exit. Most firms will rethink their China presence only if their governments tell them to.

The bubble in predicting the end of the world

1 Dec 2022

The globe faces multiple threats to peace and prosperity. Several new books address the challenges of enormous debt, geopolitical rivalries and climate change, predicting disastrous consequences. The best thing investors can do is keep a level head, writes Edward Chancellor.

UK and EU’s new goodwill could be significant

23 Nov 2022

British PM Rishi Sunak wants to improve trade relations with the EU. Progress will only be piecemeal and slow, even if the two sides agree on how to implement their 2019 deal on Ireland. In the meantime small deals are possible, and they could normalise the path to closer ties.

The world can harness trade to save the planet

21 Nov 2022

Trade is a major cause of global warming. The solution is to tax commerce in carbon-intensive goods and remove tariffs on clean ones, to support low-carbon technologies, and to do all this fairly. It’s a priority for next year’s COP28 conference in Dubai, says Hugo Dixon.

China’s foreign customers leave at worst time

8 Nov 2022

Overseas demand finally collapsed in October, with exports shrinking 0.3% after a surprisingly long run. Trade strength had offset weak domestic consumption and real estate, so the contraction bolsters the case for easing harsh pandemic controls. It might be too late already.

Capital Calls: Japan baulks at U.S. car credits

7 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: Tokyo warns America’s Inflation Reduction Act could discourage Japanese investment into the world’s biggest economy.

Capital Calls: DuPont, Dollar stores, Twitter

2 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: The chemicals company takes an unexpected but welcome M&A break; Dollar General is being sued for practices that raise questions about pricing power; and Elon Musk plans to charge micro-bloggers for blue checks to help cover his huge deal costs.

America throws South Korean chipmakers for a loop

28 Oct 2022

Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the memory market and can adjust output to protect profits as demand falls. But that flexibility will be eroded under Washington's export curbs against China, where the pair have factories. It's an example of the unforeseen effects from the tech war.

Europe’s energy crisis nears winter of discontent

18 Oct 2022

Germany, Italy and others have scrambled to replace Russian gas and pipeline attacks have become a concern. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Jack Sharples tells The Exchange podcast Europe must learn to live with less power. Next year may be even more challenging.

U.S. high-tech chip curb risks lower-tech blowback

11 Oct 2022

Washington’s export controls hinder China from developing advanced semiconductors needed for supercomputers and the like. But the ban may prompt Chinese chipmakers to hasten their progress in the commoditised parts of the market, embedding firms like SMIC in global supply chains.

Guest view: Russia sanctions lack decisive punch

27 Sep 2022

Restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have done economic damage, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. But Cuba and Iran show American sanctions are not decisive in changing geopolitical outcomes.

Petrodollar rush may disappoint Western financiers

20 Sep 2022

In prior energy booms, like in the 1970s, the proceeds wound up in U.S. banks and bonds. OPEC’s $907 bln haul in 2022 is smaller, and winners like Saudi Arabia need cash to pivot away from oil. Bankers may not see a developed world equities and debt bonanza on the same scale.

Europe energy fallout will cascade down the years

12 Sep 2022

The gas crisis is a long-term problem which will make the region poorer and less competitive while saddling it with higher public debt. Dealing with this as well as high inflation will cause further political ructions which will cascade down the years, says Hugo Dixon.

U.S.-China relationship bleeds by a thousand cuts

8 Aug 2022

Beijing has suspended bilateral cooperation on drugs, climate, military and crime over Washington’s support for Taiwan. In the near term little changes; actual collaboration was minimal. The diplomatic freeze will nevertheless further poison a $600 bln trade relationship.

Maersk’s cash machine is economic storm warning

2 Aug 2022

The Danish shipping giant reckons sky-high freight rates will help it land $37 bln of EBITDA this year. The trouble is its $50 bln enterprise value gives little credit to what lies over the horizon. The likely explanation is a sharp collapse in container demand due to recession.

Global food crisis demands urgent Western response

25 Jul 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed up food and energy costs around the globe. The most urgent problems are in poorer countries, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. Rich nations offered insufficient help for Covid-19. International bodies can do better this time.

Russian grain deal gives food crisis a partial fix

22 Jul 2022

Moscow has agreed to lift a blockade on 20 mln tonnes of Ukrainian grain. That should reduce the scale of a Middle East food crisis, and ease prices which remain high versus 2021. Still, Russia could always renege on the new deal.

What an honest British prime minister would say

11 Jul 2022

Conservative politicians who helped precipitate Boris Johnson’s downfall are now vying to replace him. Several have spoken about the need for honesty, integrity and realism. If they mean what they say, they should start with these five points, says Hugo Dixon.

Raging crisis puts Sri Lanka’s creditors on spot

11 Jul 2022

Protesters are forcing out the president after petrol pumps ran dry. It removes one obstacle to an IMF rescue. Now bondholders need to swallow big losses on Colombo’s $50 bln of foreign debt. An ugly global economy means citizens and lenders face a long, hard road to recovery.

Capital Calls: Amazon/Just Eat Takeaway

6 Jul 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $1.2 trillion e-commerce giant is reprising its deal offering Prime subscribers membership of UK food delivery outfit Deliveroo with the U.S. arm of its $3 billion Dutch rival.