Trade

Capital Calls: Blacklisting China

3 Mar 2023

Concise views on global finance: Another 28 Chinese firms were blacklisted by the United States, making it harder for them to buy US goods. As security officials warn of TikTok’s massive reach, personal data should count as an American export, too.

UK’s Brexit fix has perks for all sides

2 Mar 2023

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed a trade deal with the European Union this week. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what the accord will mean for future relations between Britain and the 27-nation bloc and how Northern Ireland may get an economic boost.

Why the dollar keeps winning in the global economy

28 Feb 2023

The greenback’s share of foreign exchange reserves is at 59%, a two-decade low. Challengers to its role as the world’s means of exchange abound. Yet the globalised financial system bolsters its lynchpin status. Absent major shifts in capital flows, the U.S. currency will thrive.

UK begins long and uncertain road back from Brexit

27 Feb 2023

Rishi Sunak agreed a deal over Northern Ireland trade with the European Union. If the UK leader can get it past his own party, it should improve relations and collaboration. Closer links will need bigger compromises than Sunak can stomach, but his deal is symbolically important.

A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold

27 Feb 2023

Investors shunned the country as the president let inflation rip. He strained relations with the West by cosying up to Putin and did too little on climate change. An opposition win in coming elections, more likely after the recent earthquake, may change all that, says Hugo Dixon.

Economic war with China would be MAD

14 Feb 2023

The prospect of mutually assured destruction averted nuclear conflict during the Cold War. Hopefully, fear of the economic equivalent will stop a showdown with China. But after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon, tensions are rising and errors are possible, says Hugo Dixon.

Europe is playing catch-up in green subsidy race

9 Feb 2023

The U.S. unveiled $369 bln of climate subsidies for consumers and manufacturers. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why Brussels may need to launch a similarly ambitious plan or risk losing its share of jobs of the future.

China ban would slow, not halt, Western solar push

3 Feb 2023

Reacting to the chip war, Beijing may ban the export of technology for making solar panels, a $235 bln sector it currently dominates. Yet the West already has green energy know-how. Creating a rival industry without Chinese expertise may be slower and costlier but not impossible.

U.S.-China rewarming trade is half-full of hot air

3 Feb 2023

The United States is tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon. That will sour any meeting between the global giants next week and rattle investors who thought the relationship had found a bottom. Beijing’s aggression is here to stay; financial risks are mostly in the White House.

Europe’s autos have weak defences against China

1 Feb 2023

Carmakers like Stellantis and Volkswagen are facing greater competition on their home turf from Chinese rivals. Higher tariffs or government subsidies might soothe the pain, but could also prompt a backlash in the Middle Kingdom. And Europe may even welcome the competition.

Capital Calls: TikTok’s Beltway visit

30 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: The social media app’s CEO Shou Zi Chew is going in front of a U.S. Congressional committee. But it’s leaders outside of Washington that Chew needs to convince.

Rough chip waters give ASML little room for error

25 Jan 2023

The Dutch giant expects sales to grow by a chunky 25% in 2023. Clients’ fear of missing out on an economic rebound is propping up demand for its equipment. Yet rising costs and the risk of a widening export ban to China may take the shine off the $264 bln group’s rich valuation.

German economic engine is due an overhaul

23 Jan 2023

Slowing global trade hit the country’s exports while higher energy prices boosted imports. The current account surplus shrank last year to 4% of GDP, its lowest level since 2003. As globalisation recedes, Berlin has to reassess the old export-led economic model.

Creative green finance can go a long way in 2023

23 Jan 2023

Rich democracies are keen to help the Global South fight climate change, in part for geopolitical reasons. Though they will struggle to write big cheques, there are ways to make a little cash go a long way, says Hugo Dixon. 2023 is a key year to drive these ideas over the line.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.

The fog in the English Channel is clearing a bit

16 Jan 2023

Britain won’t rejoin the EU soon, despite voters’ regrets over Brexit. But if the two sides resolve a Northern Ireland dispute there could be progress on topics such as climate, foreign policy and financial services. Much may have to wait for a new UK government, says Hugo Dixon.

How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023

10 Jan 2023

Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.

China’s wolf warriors start 2023 in retreat

10 Jan 2023

Beijing has taken the mic away from combative foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. His transfer follows other de-escalatory moves like a thaw in trade with Australia and calls for healthier U.S. relations. But it will take years to undo the damage from nationalist trolls.

Democracy remains vulnerable despite a good year

12 Dec 2022

Autocrats like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have suffered setbacks. So have demagogues like Donald Trump. But the tough economic outlook presents further challenges for democratic systems. So does the fact that many people feel their lives have little meaning, says Hugo Dixon.

Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way

5 Dec 2022

The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.