Trade

Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis

20 Dec 2023

Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.

New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder

19 Dec 2023

Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.

Biden and Xi’s warmer ties look flimsy

16 Nov 2023

The leaders of the largest economies resumed high-level communication following years of tension. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how Taiwan as well as anti-China rhetoric in the lead-up to next year’s US election could undo any goodwill.

Weak Biden-Xi handshake would send strong message

10 Nov 2023

The US and Chinese presidents may meet next week in San Francisco as tit-for-tat retaliations pressure trade. Beijing remains combative towards Taiwan while Americans coalesce on anti-China issues. De-escalating tensions can benefit both sides but is not politically expedient.

Capital Calls: Paramount’s stricter streaming

3 Nov 2023

Concise views on global finance: The media stalwart’s shares popped 10% as boss Bob Bakish predicted that losses from its costly streaming push have topped out. But the company still faces a cutthroat market full of better-resourced rivals.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

West’s latest China corporate risk: medical graft

23 Oct 2023

Beijing is cracking down on corruption in the supply of healthcare products. Western groups like Siemens Healthineers and Philips source over 10% of sales from the People’s Republic. The risk is that domestic rivals use the situation to grab market share.

China’s graphite curbs send green warning shot

20 Oct 2023

Beijing is introducing export controls for a key EV battery material, following fresh US tech restrictions. With 90% of global processing capacity in the People’s Republic, the West will struggle to go it alone. Carmakers’ dependence on the People’s Republic is here to stay.

US tech controls help and hinder China chipmakers

20 Oct 2023

Washington’s latest restrictions aim to curb Chinese access to semiconductors for AI and warfare. Beijing is years away from replicating sophisticated components and tools like those made by ASML. But the rules create opportunities for local champions such as $30 bln SMIC.

The financial ramifications of US-China tensions

17 Oct 2023

The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.

Globalisation woes create new winners and losers

17 Oct 2023

After peaking at 61% of world GDP in 2008, trade is falling due to tariffs, industrial policies and geopolitical strife. That means higher wages and production costs for companies, and more inflation for consumers. Yet some countries, commodities and workers stand to gain.

Australia’s China détente is a tough one to copy

12 Oct 2023

Beijing freed an Aussie journalist and has lifted import bans on goods like coal and hay. High commodity prices propped up Canberra’s coffers, while a less bellicose administration and a scant manufacturing base helped reconciliation. The US and the EU can’t use such a blueprint.

Next EU chief will need cash more than trade wars

10 Oct 2023

Ursula von der Leyen kicked off her campaign to stay European Commission president by attacking China’s car subsidies. But what the bloc craves is a plan to grow its economy and enlarge eastwards, including finding $411 bln for Ukraine. A bigger, better Europe won’t come cheap.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.

China is swing factor in diesel’s global squeeze

5 Oct 2023

Russia’s export ban on the fuel may prove a temporary scare. But low inventories in the US and Europe, spiking crude prices and a colder winter could keep it in short supply. The key variable, though, is whether China helps ease the pressure by raising export quotas.

Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste

3 Oct 2023

Europe’s largest economy is on track to shrink this year. The immediate causes are lower exports to China and higher energy prices. But decades of under-investment will continue to crimp growth unless Berlin ditches its hostility to fiscal stimulus and comprehensive reforms.

India entry into geopolitical storm will be costly

19 Sep 2023

New Delhi dismissed as ‘absurd’ Canada’s allegation of its involvement in a Sikh leader’s murder. Either way, the fallout will ripple through cabinets and boardrooms in the West. For global companies and money managers, it’s a reminder that de-risking from China is complicated.

China’s next chip battle is for the bottom line

19 Sep 2023

Huawei’s new smartphone proves the country can make cutting-edge hardware despite US restrictions. But it’s unclear if semiconductor provider SMIC can scale supply. Huawei’s flashy phones have hogged the limelight: SMIC’s shrinking margins deserve the same scrutiny.

China’s EV makers would steer around EU roadblock

14 Sep 2023

A Brussels probe may mean hefty tariffs on battery-powered cars imported from the People’s Republic. BYD, Nio and peers could start making them in the bloc, which accounts for a quarter of global EV sales. Focusing on Asia and Latin America, though, would make more sense.

China is bitter medicine for Europe’s EV pivot

12 Sep 2023

Ditching EU combustion engines by 2035 requires carmakers like VW to rapidly boost sales of battery rides. That’s a challenge when electric cars are pricier than gasoline ones. Competition from China will lift take-up and force Western players to become more efficient.