Trade

It will take more than Draghi to boost EU growth

22 Jan 2024

Europe can’t decide if it will be more competitive with open markets or heavily protected national champions, and it wants Mario Draghi to pick. Italy’s former PM is more likely to reflect than resolve tensions among members. But the bloc can’t up its game behind closed doors.

Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble

18 Jan 2024

Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.

Carbon markets have a long shot at redemption

18 Jan 2024

The US hopes to raise over $200 bln using carbon credits to help emerging markets cut emissions. The idea of enabling firms to offset pollution with cuts elsewhere has long been flawed. Washington’s wager is that a lack of green cash for developing states is a bigger evil.

Iron ore investors mine irrational exuberance

16 Jan 2024

The mineral's recent 40% jump has sent BHP, Fortescue and Rio's Aussie-listed shares towards record highs. Yet the trio's earnings are below their peak, as is the commodity, whose price is expected to fall. Absent a sudden upswing in China's economy, the rally looks overdone.

The spectre of Donald Trump hangs over Davos

12 Jan 2024

The former US president is not among the 2,800 business and political leaders converging on the Swiss resort. But his possible return to power will pervade debates about Ukraine, China, and climate change. In 2016, Davos laughed off the idea of a Trump presidency. Not this time.

Prolonged Red Sea attacks can hurt global economy

11 Jan 2024

Freight costs are soaring as militants target ships on a crucial trade route. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how inflation could rise and which companies could suffer if the tensions aren’t resolved soon.

EU’s energy security drive may have gone too far

11 Jan 2024

The bloc’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas has worked. But Europe’s fast-rising capacity to import the fossil fuel in liquid form will surpass its total gas needs by 2030. LNG infrastructure’s public and private backers have a stark choice: scale back, or risk writedowns.

China’s auto exports can hold the fast lane

10 Jan 2024

The country has displaced Japan as the world's largest shipper of cars abroad, sending more than 5 mln overseas last year, per an industry group. Companies best known for gas guzzlers are among the winners. But EV makers like BYD are gaining share and will drive the trend on.

Capital Calls: Cognac, Euro zone inflation

5 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: China’s new brandy probe may not be French drinks giants’ main headache; new euro area inflation figures sit all the more awkwardly with the ECB’s refusal to consider rate cuts.

Red Sea windfall will only delay shippers’ pain

4 Jan 2024

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have gained some $18 bln in market value, as militant attacks shut the Suez Canal and caused freight rates to soar. Yet investor hopes for a lasting boost may be disappointed. And carriers will still face a reckoning from a weak economy and idle fleets.

Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis

20 Dec 2023

Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.

New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder

19 Dec 2023

Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.

Biden and Xi’s warmer ties look flimsy

16 Nov 2023

The leaders of the largest economies resumed high-level communication following years of tension. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how Taiwan as well as anti-China rhetoric in the lead-up to next year’s US election could undo any goodwill.

Weak Biden-Xi handshake would send strong message

10 Nov 2023

The US and Chinese presidents may meet next week in San Francisco as tit-for-tat retaliations pressure trade. Beijing remains combative towards Taiwan while Americans coalesce on anti-China issues. De-escalating tensions can benefit both sides but is not politically expedient.

Capital Calls: Paramount’s stricter streaming

3 Nov 2023

Concise views on global finance: The media stalwart’s shares popped 10% as boss Bob Bakish predicted that losses from its costly streaming push have topped out. But the company still faces a cutthroat market full of better-resourced rivals.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

West’s latest China corporate risk: medical graft

23 Oct 2023

Beijing is cracking down on corruption in the supply of healthcare products. Western groups like Siemens Healthineers and Philips source over 10% of sales from the People’s Republic. The risk is that domestic rivals use the situation to grab market share.

China’s graphite curbs send green warning shot

20 Oct 2023

Beijing is introducing export controls for a key EV battery material, following fresh US tech restrictions. With 90% of global processing capacity in the People’s Republic, the West will struggle to go it alone. Carmakers’ dependence on the People’s Republic is here to stay.

US tech controls help and hinder China chipmakers

20 Oct 2023

Washington’s latest restrictions aim to curb Chinese access to semiconductors for AI and warfare. Beijing is years away from replicating sophisticated components and tools like those made by ASML. But the rules create opportunities for local champions such as $30 bln SMIC.

The financial ramifications of US-China tensions

17 Oct 2023

The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.