Trade

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

BHP and Rio take competition out of going green

9 Feb 2024

The giant miners are teaming up to try and decarbonise steel production. Cutting the 8% of global emissions the current process belches out is key to saving the planet. The collaboration can help Australia keep up too. It makes this unusual setting aside of rivalry doubly smart.

Capital Calls: Maersk, SoftBank, Adyen

8 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The Danish shipping giant’s shares fell 14% after it missed expectations and warned of years of earnings pain; the Japanese investment firm posted its first net profit in five quarters; the Dutch payment company is slowly recovering.

A pinch of salt could unsettle electric-car order

7 Feb 2024

Carmakers Stellantis and BYD are betting on sodium-based batteries. The cells’ bulk and need for more frequent charging mean they may struggle to drive lithium tech off the road. But affordability and the prospect of loosening China’s grip on the industry will spur adoption.

Red Sea delays are no panacea for European EVs

5 Feb 2024

Suez Canal blockages mean Chinese electric vehicles take longer to get to Europe. But these don’t look bad enough to close the price gap with EU rivals. The most likely upshot is a slower rate of domestic EV adoption, rather than a change in the competitive pecking order.

Shipping giants can withstand Red Sea crisis

30 Jan 2024

Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal are slowing global trade. In this Exchange podcast, Zvi Schreiber, CEO of shipping platform Freightos, discusses how the sector was caught by surprise, but excess container ships and more air cargo capacity are helping limit the immediate pain.

Big Tech and AI get too close for comfort

29 Jan 2024

Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet alone contributed about a third of the $70 bln raised by data and artificial intelligence startups last year. Some of the investments could turn into revenue generators. Mounting regulatory and financial risks also might offset the benefits.

ASML is underplaying its strengths

24 Jan 2024

The semiconductor giant kept its 2024 outlook reined in despite hefty quarterly earnings. US and Dutch export controls that affect chipmaking tools have begun to dip into China sales. But a hefty orders backlog and rising chip demand should help the $330 bln group fly higher.

Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat

22 Jan 2024

Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.

It will take more than Draghi to boost EU growth

22 Jan 2024

Europe can’t decide if it will be more competitive with open markets or heavily protected national champions, and it wants Mario Draghi to pick. Italy’s former PM is more likely to reflect than resolve tensions among members. But the bloc can’t up its game behind closed doors.

Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble

18 Jan 2024

Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.

Carbon markets have a long shot at redemption

18 Jan 2024

The US hopes to raise over $200 bln using carbon credits to help emerging markets cut emissions. The idea of enabling firms to offset pollution with cuts elsewhere has long been flawed. Washington’s wager is that a lack of green cash for developing states is a bigger evil.

Iron ore investors mine irrational exuberance

16 Jan 2024

The mineral's recent 40% jump has sent BHP, Fortescue and Rio's Aussie-listed shares towards record highs. Yet the trio's earnings are below their peak, as is the commodity, whose price is expected to fall. Absent a sudden upswing in China's economy, the rally looks overdone.

The spectre of Donald Trump hangs over Davos

12 Jan 2024

The former US president is not among the 2,800 business and political leaders converging on the Swiss resort. But his possible return to power will pervade debates about Ukraine, China, and climate change. In 2016, Davos laughed off the idea of a Trump presidency. Not this time.

Prolonged Red Sea attacks can hurt global economy

11 Jan 2024

Freight costs are soaring as militants target ships on a crucial trade route. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how inflation could rise and which companies could suffer if the tensions aren’t resolved soon.

EU’s energy security drive may have gone too far

11 Jan 2024

The bloc’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas has worked. But Europe’s fast-rising capacity to import the fossil fuel in liquid form will surpass its total gas needs by 2030. LNG infrastructure’s public and private backers have a stark choice: scale back, or risk writedowns.

China’s auto exports can hold the fast lane

10 Jan 2024

The country has displaced Japan as the world's largest shipper of cars abroad, sending more than 5 mln overseas last year, per an industry group. Companies best known for gas guzzlers are among the winners. But EV makers like BYD are gaining share and will drive the trend on.

Capital Calls: Cognac, Euro zone inflation

5 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: China’s new brandy probe may not be French drinks giants’ main headache; new euro area inflation figures sit all the more awkwardly with the ECB’s refusal to consider rate cuts.

Red Sea windfall will only delay shippers’ pain

4 Jan 2024

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have gained some $18 bln in market value, as militant attacks shut the Suez Canal and caused freight rates to soar. Yet investor hopes for a lasting boost may be disappointed. And carriers will still face a reckoning from a weak economy and idle fleets.