Trade

Trump’s America First drive hits a wall

26 Jan 2017

Taxing imports from Mexico is the administration's latest idea to finance a barrier on the southern border. The plan resembles a border adjustment tax favored by congressional GOPers. It could generate plenty of money, but American consumers - not Mexico - would pay the bill.

Viewsroom: Trump’s borderline tax ideas

26 Jan 2017

Two competing tariff ideas from President Trump and congressional Republicans bring merits but mostly unforeseen risks. Meanwhile, any cut in the corporate tax rate will benefit hapless Yahoo and its Asian holdings. Plus, why it pays to bet against Davos Man's thinking.

Detroit can power-steer around political obstacles

26 Jan 2017

The new president wants more U.S. factories and jobs. In theory that could cost the car industry $60 bln-plus. But Ford and GM have spare capacity and good PR folks. Other Trump policies should help carmakers, too. They can turn connected and driverless tech to their advantage.

Trump’s Mexican standoff a lose-lose proposition

25 Jan 2017

The American president unveiled border-wall plans as Mexican officials arrived in Washington to discuss reworking NAFTA. Trump has blasted the pact as a terrible deal. Mexico says it could ditch it entirely. A better relationship is possible, but so too is an economic disaster.

Breakdown: Border tariff vs. border-adjustment tax

25 Jan 2017

Donald Trump wants to hit firms that outsource with a simple levy on imports. GOPers in Congress have pitched a more complex idea built into a corporate-tax overhaul, which might more reliably offset the effects of lower tax rates. The plans create different winners and losers.

Trump can teach May about the art of the deal

25 Jan 2017

A trade pact between the UK and the United States could be helpful to both. The faster it comes, the less comprehensive it would be. Yet what an accord between the two leaders might lack in scope would be made up for by the creation of a clear loser: Europe.

Cox: Buy Amazon, short the euro zone, readers say

24 Jan 2017

Those are two ideas to emerge from people who attended Breakingviews predictions events in London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. Our audiences also anticipated a U.S. recession in 2019 and expected the family car to outlast supermarkets, television, the euro and NAFTA.

Trump protectionism double-down faces harsh reality

20 Jan 2017

The new U.S. president echoed his campaign rhetoric by presenting a dark picture of "American carnage" and decay at his inauguration. Ending overseas assistance to focus on growth at home is his remedy. But he also needs to boost exports, which requires other countries' help.

Wilbur Ross helpfully plays Trump trade translator

18 Jan 2017

The commerce secretary nominee played down the possibility of a trade war. Instead, Ross, a billionaire investor, focused on practices like steel dumping by China. That's the broadly preferred path in Congress. NAFTA talks will reveal if everyone is speaking the same language.

Trump void lets Xi Jinping cosy up to Davos Man

17 Jan 2017

The Chinese president defended trade and international cooperation at the global conflab. Beijing is a highly flawed champion of globalisation. But if America turns inward under its new president, China can play a bigger global role in everything from trade to climate change.

Britain’s Brexit cliff: how big is the drop?

16 Jan 2017

As Theresa May prepares to reveal details of the UK’s post-EU objectives, the risk of a clean break in 2019 has risen. Such an outcome is suboptimal. But Britain’s negotiating position is far from hopeless, and the scale of the pain from “hard Brexit” can be overstated.

Trump may force Germany to do more for Europe

16 Jan 2017

Donald Trump is threatening to slap U.S. import tariffs on German cars. For all the economic pain, this could give the EU a new lease of life. Internal pressure failed to make Berlin spend more or give fiscal concessions to southern Europe. External threats might work better.

Beijing lobs trade grenade into Trump’s court

11 Jan 2017

China is imposing punitive tariffs on imports of a U.S. animal feed just days before the president-elect takes office. Trump has already talked tough about taxing imports from the Middle Kingdom. Retaliation risks escalating into a trade war that neither side would win.

China bullies South Korea at its own risk

12 Jan 2017

Beijing looks to be exacting economic revenge against Seoul over a U.S. military pact. Sectors riding the "Korean wave" in China, like cosmetics and entertainment, are in the crosshairs. But deep manufacturing ties are harder to break. Excessive harshness would backfire on China.

Anglo-U.S. trade exposed to specialness deficit

9 Jan 2017

The UK’s “special relationship” with America gets more crucial as it moves towards a clean break with Europe. Transatlantic imports and exports are balanced – which should please President-elect Donald Trump – yet Britain has more to lose. Finance looks particularly vulnerable.

Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017

3 Jan 2017

After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.

Trump adds attack-dog bite to global-trade bark

3 Jan 2017

GM is the latest target of the president-elect's ire for outsourcing to Mexico. His pick for U.S. trade rep knows how to impose import restraints and tariffs. Robert Lighthizer's nomination heralds a more comprehensive assault on free trade than Trump's Twitter tirades.

Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017

3 Jan 2017

After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.

Trump, conservatives will clash over Ex-Im Bank

23 Dec 2016

The president-elect's "America First" industrial policy should help the agency that finances foreign purchases of U.S. goods. It has been hobbled by Republicans who deride it as corporate welfare. After the Carrier deal, a collision with free-market capitalism looks inevitable.

New White House council muddies Trump trade policy

22 Dec 2016

The U.S. president-elect chose China critic Peter Navarro to head a trade advisory group. Yet Commerce nominee Wilbur Ross is set to lead on such issues. There's also the U.S. trade office. The regime risks speaking in multiple voices and confusing nations negotiating with them.