Trade

Xi has weak pitch selling status quo to Trump

14 Mar 2017

The U.S. president will reportedly host China's Xi in April, but neither has much to bring to the table. Xi wants Trump to stick with the status quo on trade, investment and climate change. In exchange China will make friendly noises about investment and reform, but little more.

Dutch election exposes fragility of mainstream

13 Mar 2017

This week’s vote is a test of Europe’s anti-elite mood. But the focus on right-wing firebrand Geert Wilders ignores a fragmentation in support for traditional parties. That is an obstacle to forming a stable government in the Netherlands - and for decision-making in the EU.

China gets a timely economic spring in its step

10 Mar 2017

A batch of positive data sets a good tone for the economy in 2017, easing fears of capital flight and deflation. The respite may be brief. Even so, it provides some room for Beijing to step back from firefighting, allowing it to focus on deleveraging and its ambitious restructuring plans.

Protectionism skews emerging market risk compass

9 Mar 2017

Anti-trade rhetoric is a threat to export-dependent countries. But commodity producers such as Saudi Arabia are less vulnerable than nations that play a big role in global manufacturing, like China or Thailand. The latter look more prone to market volatility than in the past.

China gives Trump cheap trade trinkets

9 Mar 2017

China looks to have fast-tracked the U.S. president's trademark applications, and its economy is going his way too. U.S. imports shot up 38 pct last month, and the yuan has firmed. There's less to the data than meets the eye, and the trademarks are trouble.

Big Oil drills through White House policy crust

7 Mar 2017

Energy industry bosses, including Exxon's, kicked off their annual Houston hootenanny with reassuring words about the environment and free trade. They notably clashed with the new administration's climate-change and border-tax positions. Global market forces will be hard to move.

Post-truth data will come back to bite Uncle Sam

21 Feb 2017

Donald Trump's economic team may tweak trade figures to make deficits look bigger, helping his push for tariffs. Though politicians have always cherry-picked numbers, fiddling with actual statistics threatens confidence. It also raises expectations Trump will struggle to meet.

Hadas: Trump’s FX truthiness misses the big points

20 Feb 2017

The U.S. president’s complaint that cheap overseas currencies hurt U.S. jobs contains a little truth, but his proposed cure is far worse than the disease. The main problem in foreign exchange is excess volatility. Fixing that requires better global coordination – a distant dream.

Struggling U.S. retailers take aim at border tax plan

15 Feb 2017

CEOs from the likes of Target and Gap are meeting with President Trump to voice concern over proposed border taxes. With store closings and job cuts accelerating, a levy that raises prices for consumers would add to the woes of an industry that's America's largest private-sector employer.

Hadas: How the liberal economy got lost

13 Feb 2017

As President Trump puts his promises on trade and migration into noxious practice, cowed elites are debating how their ideas failed. The big causes are forgotten history, ideological hubris, bad finance and excessive self-interest. Fixing those flaws is essential to any revival.

Trump’s China retreat heralds more rational clash

10 Feb 2017

The U.S. president has backed away from reckless threats by reaffirming the "One China" policy. Fights over trade and currency issues are still in prospect. But the People's Republic – and the world – can take some comfort from Trump's belated embrace of conventional diplomacy.

The $22 bln Trump wall is a bad investment choice

10 Feb 2017

That's the amount a Homeland Security report says the president's promised Mexican border barrier will cost. It would pay for two aircraft carriers or 150 years of the National Endowment for the Arts. Or Trump could fund the Labor Department for a year – and still buy Twitter.

Viewsroom: Keeping banks in the sin bin

9 Feb 2017

President Trump wants to "do a number" on post-crisis financial reforms, but overturning them will be tough. Paris emerges as the top city for financial types after Brexit. Plus, why a legal brief filed by Google and others against Trump’s immigration ban is such an unusual move.

Wreckage of TPP could help fix NAFTA

9 Feb 2017

Donald Trump wants to renegotiate the 1994 pact with Mexico and Canada, covering over $1 trln of trade. The scrapped trans-Pacific deal included some helpful measures on dairy products and energy. They could be slotted into a revamped NAFTA, boosting the chances of a new deal.

Canadians walk fine line on Trump protectionism

9 Feb 2017

What's good for the U.S. is mostly good for the $2 trln economy to the north: it has been called "California with really bad weather." Unlike Mexico, Canada isn't a low-wage target. Some Trump policies pose risks, though – as does a gulf between the two nations' philosophies.

Jose Cuervo IPO can drink to weak peso

7 Feb 2017

The U.S. election outcome put the Mexican tequila maker's stock float on ice. It's now back at a mooted valuation of over $5 bln with a Singaporean investor ready to take a shot. New tariffs in Jose Cuervo's biggest market are a threat, but a cheap currency may be just the tonic.

Viewsroom: The cost of jingoism

2 Feb 2017

President Trump's trade-tariff threats and his temporary immigration ban risk undermining business-friendly policies like deregulation and tax cuts. Meanwhile, he has nominated a Supreme Court justice. And Under Armour takes center stage in the battle for shareholder rights.

UK breezily gives City its very own stress test

2 Feb 2017

Britain will aim for “the freest possible” trade in financial services after it leaves the EU, its White Paper says. It’s as if the sector is an immaterial contributor to the UK tax take and services surplus. The government is either foolhardy, or showing impressive sang-froid.

Trade swings in GDP highlight challenge for Trump

27 Jan 2017

The pace of U.S. economic expansion slowed in Q4 to 1.9 pct. A drop in exports had a big impact, offsetting a third-quarter boost. The president wants more outward trade, but the volatility makes his 4 pct growth target a stretch even before planned import tariffs rock the boat.

Britain’s global trade dream is second-best option

27 Jan 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May is hoping her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump will open up a trade deal with the United States. China and others may follow. But the resulting boost to UK exports will probably be too small to replace those it risks losing by leaving the EU.