Trade

Labour’s risky UK manifesto requires Brexit context

16 May 2017

Britain’s opposition party has outlined tax rises for companies and the rich to pay for higher spending. Potential payers could get around them. Yet what Labour is proposing isn’t that much more risky than the “hard Brexit” the ruling Conservative party may deliver.

Western banks are a poor home for Asian billions

16 May 2017

If sovereign funds are meant to generate superior returns over generations, the sale of UBS shares by Singapore’s GIC is logical. Banks’ futures are clouded by technology, disintermediation and populism. Those still building stakes, like China’s HNA, may have other goals in mind.

Eddie Lampert’s enemies list sounds presidential

15 May 2017

The CEO threatened to sue a Chinese tool vendor, and blamed it and the “irresponsible” media for Sears’ woes. It’s a page from the playbook of President Trump, who has talked of slapping tariffs on China and often taunts the press. Investors aren’t buying Lampert’s line, though.

Review: Piketty is more stimulating when he’s wild

12 May 2017

Too much of the economist's bestseller on inequality was standard-issue theory. As a new anthology of essays on the book makes clear, much is wrong or missing in his reasoning. A critic’s call for "wild Piketty" rings true. The topic needs a broad, multi-disciplinary approach.

China’s dealmakers edge out Trump in first round

12 May 2017

American cattlemen and financiers will get more access to mainland markets in exchange for chicken imports and a potential opening for Chinese banks. It's a good start but Beijing didn't give up much. U.S. negotiators will have to push harder if they want a better bargain.

What’s Britain’s real Brexit bill?

9 May 2017

Negotiators may demand the UK pay 100 bln euros as part of an orderly EU exit. Avoiding this would mean leaving without a trade deal, which would hit future growth. This Breakingviews calculator estimates how much output and tax revenue Britain stands to lose in a chaotic Brexit.

Macron has bigger fish to fry than Brexit

8 May 2017

Negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU will no doubt guzzle the incoming French president’s time and energy. But knitting the euro zone closer together will absorb his political capital. Punishing or pleasing the UK will be an outcome not an objective.

Britain’s Brexit bill is worth the money

8 May 2017

An orderly departure from the EU may cost the UK as much as 100 billion euros. A chaotic exit that permanently lowered the growth rate of its 1.9 trillion pound economy would be much more expensive. Better to hand over a hefty sum if it means avoiding that outcome.

Hadas: Nationalists are united by economic muddle

26 Apr 2017

Brexit fans want freer trade, Marine Le Pen is a protectionist and Donald Trump can’t make up his mind. Populists also disagree on fiscal deficits and industrial policy. What they share is an aversion to the truth that national prosperity starts with compromises on sovereignty.

Trump finds a trade battle worth fighting

25 Apr 2017

The president is slapping a 20 pct duty on Canadian softwood after decades of officials complaining of subsidies. The administration has a good case in going after one of the nation’s closest allies. That should also give Trump some leverage – if he doesn’t overplay his hand.

Buy American crackdown may hurt Build America push

18 Apr 2017

The White House wants to curb the use of foreign goods in U.S. construction projects and procurement. Disregarding global supply chains and relying on arcane definitions of what qualifies as domestic add risk of rising prices. The same is true of Trump's infrastructure plans.

Review: China’s New Silk Road mined with distrust

7 Apr 2017

The People's Republic wants to use its ambitious "One Belt One Road" infrastructure project to build soft power. "China's Asian Dream" by Tom Miller points out the potholes. The country’s search for regional allies is sabotaged by its sense of superiority.

Hadas: Hard Brexit could have sting in the tail

6 Apr 2017

Conventional wisdom is that even a "clean break" with the European Union just means a slower UK growth rate. But if modern revolutionaries gain control, Britain might end up with less foreign money and fewer trading partners. That would bring a huge drop in living standards.

China’s reformers could use tough line from Trump

5 Apr 2017

The U.S. president has threatened his Chinese counterpart with punitive trade policies. A more creative approach would target barriers to foreign investment in the People’s Republic. That would find support from U.S. corporations – and China’s frustrated pro-market faction.

Saudi will find luring May was the easy part

5 Apr 2017

The British prime minister’s charm offensive in Riyadh may help sell more planes and halal lamb. It also sends a message to EU negotiators. What Saudi really needs is investment, people and skills – which hinge on the so-called soft issues Theresa May seems happy to overlook.

Review: A flawed compass for post-Brexit Britain

31 Mar 2017

The vote to leave the European Union exposed a new political fault line, David Goodhart argues in “The Road to Somewhere”. The solution is for cosmopolitan elites to share more power with those left behind. The tension is real, but the distinction too broad to be a useful guide.

Mexico drives a train through Trump border wall

29 Mar 2017

The $2 bln purchase of a Florida railway by miner Grupo Mexico is a timely reminder that the countries' relationship is not all one-way traffic. The outward-looking Mexico the deal exemplifies is better for U.S. business than the more hostile neighbor Trump's wall plan portends.

Guest view: The $1 trln trade deal anyone can love

24 Mar 2017

Even as NAFTA, TPP and other global accords come under siege, one WTO agreement was quietly just put into force. It'll help countries and companies big and small save money by getting goods across borders quicker, says Andrew Wilson, who runs a Chamber of Commerce affiliate.

Brexit could weaken Britain’s puny productivity

21 Mar 2017

As in most developed countries, UK companies are struggling to produce more with the same workers. Exporters and foreign-owned firms are the notable exceptions. If leaving the European Union squeezes trade and shrinks foreign investment, living standards will suffer.

Hadas: The real trade-surplus problem is financial

15 Mar 2017

Big positive German and Korean current accounts are supposedly bad. Trump wants to rewrite the rules over America's trade deficits. Yet the traditional cases against surpluses are weak. The larger fear is that cross-border cash flows weaken the stability of the financial system.