Trade

Markets call Trump’s bluff with Indian IT rally

23 Jun 2017

The value of the top outsourcing firms has risen about 9 pct, or $12 bln, since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors have reason to doubt his hard talk on immigration, and to believe Premier Narendra Modi can help his counterpart see the mutual benefits.

Theresa May’s plan still has hard Brexit core

21 Jun 2017

The quest for a parliamentary majority has forced Britain’s prime minister to curb her ambition. Planned reforms to pensions, schools and company pay have been shoved aside. Support for her Brexit-heavy agenda is uncertain, though. The government’s future remains in the balance.

As Saudi’s new crown prince rises, so could oil

21 Jun 2017

Mohammed bin Salman has replaced his cousin as heir. That gives him a firmer hand to push through economic reform, but maybe less incentive to do so. Where he is likely to make a bigger mark is in squabbles with Gulf neighbours and taking firmer action over a low oil price.

Europe and U.S. clash over who bullies the bullies

16 Jun 2017

Germany has bristled at draft U.S. sanctions against Russia, claiming the global policeman is overplaying its clout. Europe is readying a big fine for tech giant Google for doing something similar. Bullies aren’t easily toppled, but countries are harder to rein in than companies.

Breakdown: Britain’s precarious pre-Brexit pact

16 Jun 2017

A Conservative pact with Northern Ireland’s DUP party is focusing minds on what Brexit means for the UK’s only EU land border. It also rules out a potential fix: EEA membership. The upside of their odd coupling is a more frank debate about challenges that lie ahead.

Italian shipping deal torpedoes single market myth

16 Jun 2017

French President Macron is griping over Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri’s bid to buy a stake in a French firm. The deal could create an EU champion, but compromise French jobs. Macron is a fervent believer in Europe – but domestic concerns don’t sit easily with idealism.

Europe risks overindulging in Brexit schadenfreude

9 Jun 2017

The election leaves Brussels without a stable partner in Brexit talks. Yet EU leaders should be pleased that voters did not reward Theresa May’s immigration views, or unite behind a hard exit. Sticking to a tight timeframe and big bill could squander chances of a compromise.

Qatar’s weak link in Saudi stand-off: people

9 Jun 2017

The sheikhdom has the money and resources required to withstand a cold war with its neighbours. Its economy depends on foreign expatriates, though, who account for more than three-quarters of the population. Preventing a demographic drain is the best reason to agree to a truce.

Banks hold key to Noble Group’s future

7 Jun 2017

The ailing trader wants to extend a $2 bln credit line, under which it has borrowed $620 mln in cash. It has the ability to repay the cash if needed. But losing the whole facility would hurt. Noble has to play for time if it is to avoid the restructuring that investors fear.

Qatar crisis points to quick but uncomfortable fix

6 Jun 2017

As Arab states and U.S. President Trump align against the emirate, the chance of leadership change is rising. Another reshuffle within the ruling family might unblock trade and diplomatic links without affecting Qatar’s economic prospects. But the precedent would be alarming.

British voters are sleepwalking to painful Brexit

6 Jun 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May called the election to strengthen her hand in negotiating the country’s departure from the European Union. But the political debate has barely touched on the trade-offs involved. The electorate is ill-prepared for the consequences that may follow.

Qatar quarrel shows limit of its sovereign wealth

6 Jun 2017

The emirate’s $300 bln-plus fund has snapped up landmark buildings and stakes in companies like Barclays and Rosneft. The spree was meant to generate returns and diplomatic clout. But Qatar’s largesse has produced few allies to help it face down its more powerful neighbours.

China can remake North Korea in its own image

6 Jun 2017

Beijing's influence over Pyongyang gets weaker daily, but it resists U.S. pressure to get tough. The alternative is for the People’s Republic to intervene and rebuild the Hermit Kingdom along its own economic model. It may be the best of a range of unattractive options.

New Irish leader is more like Renzi than Macron

5 Jun 2017

Leo Varadkar will be Ireland’s youngest prime minister, prompting comparisons with France’s Emmanuel Macron. Parallels with Italy’s former PM Matteo Renzi are more apt. His government is weak, and he could be at odds with Europe on Ireland’s chief challenges of Brexit and taxes.

U.S.-EU trade talks could yet be chalk and cheese

30 May 2017

Trump officials hope a transatlantic deal will be easier to forge because barriers are already low. T-TIP has its own special problems, though, including local rules for white-collar workers and protections on products like feta. Such issues can be just as tricky as tariffs.

Review: A premature requiem for the liberal order

26 May 2017

Globalisation is in retreat and democracy under attack. Two new books foresee a gloomy future for the Western-led economic and political system. Yet just as some were too quick to proclaim its triumph in 1989, the obituaries sparked by Donald Trump’s election may prove too hasty.

Jump at Bunge shows Glencore has its M&A mojo back

24 May 2017

The commodity giant's agricultural arm approached the $11 bln U.S. grain trader about a friendly deal. A takeover may not be the goal, and Bunge is cool on a tie-up. But after some tough balance-sheet repair, Ivan Glasenberg’s trading powerhouse is clearly back on the offensive.

Two Irans go in different directions

22 May 2017

Reformist Hassan Rouhani was re-elected president in a landslide victory over hardliners. At the same time, U.S. President Trump placed the country firmly back into the “axis of evil”. The former ought to make Iran more investor-friendly, but it’s the latter that will shape its destiny.

Guest view: U.S. energy independence is flawed aim

18 May 2017

The Trump administration is making oil self-sufficiency a top priority. Pursuing such a policy, however, puts the country at risk of missing out on important benefits of being a global buyer and seller, EY energy analysts argue. Interdependence, they say, is the better option.

Trump visit exposes Saudi Arabia’s insecurity

18 May 2017

The U.S. president is heading to Riyadh to rejuvenate an ailing alliance. Trade has suffered and America’s shale oil boom has undermined the kingdom’s status as a key energy supplier and security priority. Rather than build confidence, Trump’s trip could open old wounds.