Trade

Trump’s trade-war scriptwriters lack an ending

25 Jun 2018

The White House plans to curb investment from China, which has already dropped off sharply. Meanwhile, Harley-Davidson will move some production abroad due to EU tariffs. Firms are hurting but it’s unclear what resolution would look like – or whether the U.S. side even knows.

America Inc. may want to revise China growth plans

22 Jun 2018

Trade tensions might hit the U.S. stock market from another angle. A Communist Party tabloid just published an op-ed warning Beijing could target DJIA constituents such as Apple and Boeing. The scope of retaliation is limited by economics, but big expansion could be curbed.

Mongolian coal IPO may keep wandering

22 Jun 2018

The Central Asian nation revived plans to list its prize mine, seven years after it tried at a $15 bln valuation. Coal prices have rebounded from 2015 lows and Chinese demand is strong. With just one big customer and years of false starts, though, investors will need convincing.

Trade war tariffs eat Daimler’s homework

21 Jun 2018

The carmaker’s tariff-induced profit warning is odd, since Chinese duties would hit U.S. cars but not imports from elsewhere. Daimler’s statement could cover for poor performance, or make a political point about a trade war’s costs. Expect other companies to try the same.

Wilbur Ross proves bad behavior is new norm

20 Jun 2018

Lawmakers hammered the U.S. commerce secretary about the effect of tariffs – but barely mentioned his sale of a company’s shares days ahead of a negative news story. Congress, occupied with trade battles, is growing numb to shady conduct. Calling it out, though, matters.

EU’s best bet is to indulge Trump on car tariffs

20 Jun 2018

Europe’s tit-for-tat response to U.S. metal duties risks a trade war that hits EU carmakers. Better to offer President Donald Trump the carrot of lower auto tariffs, which have little effect anyway. That could humour his trade antics, but cause less economic damage.

Market swoon undercuts Chinese consumer tale

20 Jun 2018

Mainland stocks are at their lowest in a year, and bonds and the yuan have slumped as fears of a full-blown tariff war intensify. This economy relies less on exports than it used to do, but domestic demand isn’t immune to trade tension. The central bank’s jitters are justified.

ZTE becomes an even cheaper stock option

19 Jun 2018

The sanctioned Chinese telecom giant’s Hong Kong shares tumbled 22 pct after the U.S. Senate passed a bill that would yank a lifeline tossed by President Donald Trump. Yet ZTE’s fate is not sealed. The political calculus may be tough to solve, but favours the brave investor.

Trump’s trade animus undermines valid China beef

15 Jun 2018

The White House on Friday imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in response to intellectual-property theft. It’s a legitimate issue that also plagued Obama. But Trump’s other anti-trade moves hurt his case – and U.S. importers. He also isn’t tackling China’s long-term economic threat.

Review: The other side of Trumpismo

15 Jun 2018

Mexico and the U.S. share complex, ever-deeper ties that contradict Donald Trump’s hostile rhetoric, Andrew Selee writes in “Vanishing Frontiers.” Bicultural businesses, movies and even co-hosting soccer’s 2026 World Cup are better signposts to the future than nationalist rants.

The Exchange: Italy’s almost premier

15 Jun 2018

Carlo Cottarelli talks about how he nearly led a caretaker government after President Sergio Mattarella last month rejected a euroskeptic finance minister put forward by the parties that won March elections. The former IMF economist has some advice for Italy’s new bosses.

Judges supplement U.S. defences on China trade

15 Jun 2018

The Supreme Court said courts shouldn’t take foreign governments’ claims about their own laws at face value. The underlying case, over vitamin price-fixing, rumbles on. This decision attacks an inconsistency Beijing has exploited in arguing firms are just following orders.

Gary Cohn only delayed inevitable trade war

14 Jun 2018

The Goldman Sachs banker who went to the White House says U.S. trade spats could wipe out the benefits of tax cuts he championed. President Trump may yet escalate his campaign against China. Cohn was a helpful buffer, but Trump’s anti-globalist instincts are now in full control.

China starts trading debt for growth

14 Jun 2018

Shadow bank lending slowed sharply in May, and investment growth slipped to just 6.1 pct. For now, Beijing’s target of increasing GDP by 6.5 pct annually is safe. But officials will be thinking about creative ways to keep credit flowing, even as they discourage riskier behaviour.

Hadas: This should be an anti-dollar moment

13 Jun 2018

Discontent with the world’s dominant currency is not new, but the Trump effect is something new. A trade circuit free from the U.S. president’s idiosyncratic America-first policies is urgently needed. The euro and renminbi can provide a base, but the politics are unpromising.

New ZTE regime could climb out of big hole

13 Jun 2018

The Chinese telecoms company lost some $3 bln of market value after its reprieve from a U.S. death sentence. That suggests concerns about the clean management sweep. If, however, ZTE can find decent leadership and stay out of trouble – big ifs – a 5G rollout holds real promise.

Trump and Kim’s TV diplomacy lacks definition

12 Jun 2018

A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader was mostly for the cameras. "Denuclearization" remains a distant prospect. Still, engagement reduces the risk of ruinous conflict and might even pry open Pyongyang’s closed economy, benefiting neighbours.

USG pokes hole in U.S.-Europe trade drywall

11 Jun 2018

The building products outfit agreed to a $6.1 bln takeover by German rival Knauf. It did well to get a 5 pct top-up given 31 pct owner Warren Buffett was already on board. In the wake of a rancorous G7 it shows companies can still transact when politicians keep out of the way.

Trump trade spleen makes foreign firms great again

11 Jun 2018

A fragile G7 detente imploded over his steel tariffs and an adviser's dig that there’s a “special place in hell” for Canada’s Trudeau. Because retaliation pushes up costs, the levies hurt U.S. firms more than they help. It’s rivals like Chinese ag firm COFCO that will profit.

Trump-Kim parley has a downside for Xi

11 Jun 2018

A breakthrough in Singapore between the mercurial U.S. and North Korean leaders would be an economic win for Seoul and others in the region. China might even profit from the détente. President Xi Jinping also could lose negotiating leverage, though, as trade tensions escalate.