Trade

Pakistan shows limits of China’s opaque largesse

3 Aug 2018

A mooted IMF bailout of the South Asian nation has raised new questions about its Chinese debts. The secret nature of Beijing’s support is a big part of the problem. To be sustainable, the country’s “Belt and Road” plan requires more clarity about its terms and conditions.

Leaving Canada out in the cold chills NAFTA deal

2 Aug 2018

The White House is in talks with Mexico, but that’s not the same as progress on the trilateral trade pact. While U.S. negotiators and southern counterparts are near resolving rules on auto content, Washington and Ottawa remain far apart. Hope for a speedy resolution is misplaced.

Falling yuan alone won’t save China from tariffs

2 Aug 2018

The United States may raise tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese goods to 25 pct up from 10 pct. Sharp depreciation against the dollar will cushion the blow. But the complexity of Asian supply chains, along with collateral damage from a devalued currency, will ensure the impact stings.

Google’s China re-entry plan looks evil and risky

2 Aug 2018

The internet giant is planning a censored search engine for China, The Intercept reports. Taking share from local champions like Baidu could prove profitable. But Beijing wants to get its hands on Google's AI expertise. Morality aside, a return would be dangerous business.

Chinese mega-merger should catalyze chemical M&A

1 Aug 2018

A changing of the guard at ChemChina suggests a Sinochem deal is getting closer. At more than $100 bln in annual revenue, the resulting giant would be on par with DowDuPont. Some forced sales may result, but Beijing's ambition will keep the focus squarely on more buying.

Predicting U.S. GDP more exciting, more pointless

27 Jul 2018

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter. A surge in exports ahead of retaliatory tariffs helped. Consumer spending, aided by tax cuts, was also a factor. The trade war and fiscal stimulus could result in zig-zagging GDP figures for some time.

Tariff truce leaves EU carmakers stuck in low gear

26 Jul 2018

Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler’s collective value rose about $7 bln after U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to relent on auto tariffs. It’s a minor victory. Transatlantic peace may not last, while Trump’s trade battle with China will still prove disruptive for the German trio.

Ford’s pain deserves more blame than GM’s

25 Jul 2018

While the largest U.S. automaker’s stock lost almost 5 pct after it said tariffs helped make commodities pricier, Ford has been warning about these costs for a while. But its deeper-seated problems in Europe, China and elsewhere warrant more severe punishment from shareholders.

Trump and Juncker revive Obama-era trade goals

25 Jul 2018

The EU will buy more American soybeans and LNG while U.S. steel tariffs may be resolved. The two also want to cut barriers in services and harmonize rules. Such issues featured with the last White House. Revisiting them in a new guise offers hope but auto levies may still loom.

China’s fiscal nudge betrays growth jitters

24 Jul 2018

The government is adding some $10 bln of corporate tax cuts as part of a broader policy push. It follows tussles between the central bank and the finance ministry over how to support an economy that just expanded 6.7 pct. Speed is as much a priority as rebalancing growth.

Trump hardball may still become Iran oil softball

23 Jul 2018

The president’s Twitter attack on Tehran counterpart Hassan Rouhani doesn’t sound great for importers of Iranian crude. Yet U.S. sanctions policy is volatile - just ask Russia’s Rusal. Another Trump goal - low petrol prices - implies Iranian exports will still be tolerated.

U.S. farm tariff antidote would be fiscal venom

20 Jul 2018

President Trump wants a government credit agency to help farmers hurt by tariffs. It can borrow up to $30 bln from Treasury and is already in the red. Estimates show the U.S. deficit hitting $1.1 trln next year. What’s more, farmers prefer trade deals over Uncle Sam handouts.

Automakers’ U.S. tariff fight heads down dead end

19 Jul 2018

The industry argues import duties would force Americans to pay an extra $83 bln a year for new cars. There’s a chance next week’s Trump-Juncker summit will yield a deal. But the U.S. president seems determined to punish countries for past trade wrongs, real or perceived.

Powell could help stiffen Congress’ spine on trade

17 Jul 2018

The Fed chief told lawmakers U.S. tariffs could threaten wage growth, but said it was unpredictable. Trade policy isn’t the Fed’s remit. Politicians are, though, worried at the early effects – yet they don’t want to anger Trump. A stronger steer from Powell might tip the balance.

EU-Japan pact too tiny to lift Trump trade blues

17 Jul 2018

A deal between nations that account for nearly a third of world GDP has symbolic value and may save European companies up to 1 bln euros a year in custom duties. But such benefits are dwarfed by the damage the U.S. president could inflict with more tariffs, say on car imports.

Boring Chinese GDP data just got interesting again

16 Jul 2018

Economic growth clocked in at 6.7 pct in the second quarter from a year ago, down a tick from earlier this year. The figure has been uncannily steady, making it easy to shrug off. As a trade war and deleveraging bite harder, though, overseas investors should pay closer attention.

Hong Kong stock-block will annoy all around

16 Jul 2018

Beijing won’t let investors trade in foreign issues or ones with super-voting shares on the HKEX. Xiaomi took an early hit and Hong Kong will hold less appeal for the likes of Aramco and tech firms. What may be a kneejerk reaction to reeling Chinese markets also could do damage.

May at least gains soft-power edge over Trump

13 Jul 2018

As the U.S. president ripped into the prime minister’s Brexit policy, an annual ranking of nations’ powers of persuasion put the UK back at No. 1. America’s slide to fourth is less surprising. It’s a crumb of comfort for Theresa May, but she will struggle to stay on top in 2019.

Silk Road speed bumps show limit of yuan diplomacy

13 Jul 2018

There is trouble along Beijing's trillion-dollar trade route. From the Maldives to Malaysia, politicians are calling to review deals, fretting over debt and dependence. Domestic politics are driving the backlash, making it tough to turn economic might into lasting influence.

Viewsroom: Trump’s Supreme Court pick

12 Jul 2018

The U.S. president has chosen a friend of big business in Brett Kavanaugh. But he faces bigger questions from Senate democrats about executive power. Plus: Commodity giant Glencore faces mounting risks in Washington, and what’s behind the Chinese yuan’s downward slide.