Trade

EU’s China trade weak spots hide in plain sight

9 Jul 2024

Beijing may retaliate after Brussels imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Of the 5,000 product groups the People’s Republic imports from the EU, many are too crucial or too small to bother with. But luxury goods, petrol cars and some foods are plausible targets.

BYD’s overseas road trip offers EU new tariffs map

9 Jul 2024

The $94 bln EV maker has just opened a factory in Thailand and is spending $1 bln to build one in Turkey. Both countries agreed preferential terms for Chinese carmakers’ imports in exchange for local production. These deals might inspire Brussels to re-engineer its own policies.

Global economy finds new ways to keep growing

8 Jul 2024

Despite fears of a slowdown, world GDP is expanding at 3.5% a year, faster than in 2023. As the US engine loses thrust, Europe and emerging markets are picking up. A sluggish China and geopolitical confrontations are risks. But for now, investors can enjoy a Goldilocks moment.

Labour ‘open for business’ stance faces early test

5 Jul 2024

New UK PM Keir Starmer wants to boost growth and attract capital. He must balance those priorities with political anxiety about inbound investment. Companies like Royal Mail and Thames Water will show where he draws the line, and how he wields extensive powers to block M&A.

China has an incentive to keep road to Europe open

26 Jun 2024

Beijing agreed to start talks with the EU on the bloc's planned tariffs on China-made EVs. Carmakers can survive but the issue represents a larger threat. It would hurt the $18 trln economy to add a full blown trade war with the EU to its escalating one with the United States.

India’s options trade faces a less lucrative reset

25 Jun 2024

Officials are planning tighter margin and disclosure rules in the booming equity derivatives market, where contracts clock $135 bln a month. That will help protect retail traders and pre-empt a wider bust. Losers may include upstart discount brokers and firms like Jane Street.

Red Sea gives shipping an Uber-style price surge

24 Jun 2024

Container rates have spiked well above their level when Houthi attacks first shut the Suez Canal. Surging demand as exporters seek to get ahead of looming trade tariffs is one reason why. But that in turn would be easier to manage if traffic didn’t have to go round Africa.

Shein’s tax perk is as American as apple pie

20 Jun 2024

The fast-fashion retailer and its rival Temu skirt import levies courtesy of a loophole critics want to close. That’s easier said than done. In any case, the Chinese-founded firms aren’t the only ones to build empires with the aid of quirks in the US tax system.

Pork glut gives China an edge in EU tariff fight

18 Jun 2024

Domestic overcapacity means the world’s top consumer of the white meat can afford to slap duties on EU imports in response to levies on EVs. European farmers may also find it harder to work around the tariffs than Chinese automakers. It's a savvy move by Beijing.

China’s EV makers can ride the tariffs backlash

18 Jun 2024

The US and the EU have imposed hefty import duties on electric vehicles BYD, Tesla and others make in the People’s Republic. In this Exchange podcast, consultant and former Chrysler executive Bill Russo explains why Europe’s levies are more a speeding fine than a stop sign.

The Group of Seven is bruised but much needed

17 Jun 2024

The club of large, rich nations has struggled with wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Most of its leaders are lame ducks. If Donald Trump becomes US president and Marine Le Pen leads France, they could paralyse it. Co-ordinating advanced democracies is more necessary and harder than ever.

EU tariffs solidify China’s EV hierarchy

13 Jun 2024

Investors brushed off less-than-feared levies on Chinese electric cars, with BYD stock up 3% from two days ago and SAIC down just 2%. For the former, a vertically integrated model and lesser reliance on subsidies mean it can now pull ahead of compatriots at home and abroad.

China can divide-and-trade a less welcoming Europe

13 Jun 2024

EU tariffs on cars are a setback for Beijing. Yet President Xi Jinping will test the bloc’s ability to form a coherent policy against the world’s second largest economy. Hungary is benefiting from rising Chinese investments and trade and will become a key battleground.

Wall Street is contorting to replace China trade

6 Jun 2024

Investment banking revenue in the People's Republic is at the lowest level since 2014. Advisers are chasing fees in India, South Korea and Australia. The biggest hope for offsetting the loss of business from the region’s top economy lies in Japan, where talent is in short supply.

India’s resilient democracy comes with a cost

6 Jun 2024

Narendra Modi will have to rely on a coalition government after a shock upset in the national elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why politicians may dig deeper to support the poor and how power sharing may create challenges for big business.

EU vote is prelude to Europe’s real choice

5 Jun 2024

Some 370 mln voters from 27 member states are set to pick a new assembly. The result will influence how EU government leaders decide who should lead the next European Commission. Backing incumbent Ursula von der Leyen to avoid a chaotic deadlock is in the bloc’s best interest.

Modi 3.0 offers limited opportunities for the West

3 Jun 2024

Western leaders’ hopes for India as a bulwark against China outweigh their concerns about Narendra Modi’s authoritarian streak. They will have more scope to work with the prime minister during his expected third term. But the overlap of interests and values is limited.

Korea’s short-selling aversion mars reform push

30 May 2024

Seoul doesn't want to allow the practice until it stamps out so-called naked illegal trades in the $1.9 trln market. But the problem is overstated and jars with a push to unlock shareholder value. The government's pandering to retail investors only hurts them in the long run.

Gulf bank’s growth push takes wrong turn in Turkey

21 May 2024

After briefly pursuing StanChart last year, First Abu Dhabi Bank may now pay $8 bln for 61% of Istanbul-based Yapi Kredi, Reuters reported. Deepening Turkish-UAE trade links offer a thin rationale. A high price, volatile lira and lack of cost savings make the deal a bad idea.

Manufacturing’s re-heating leaves consumers cold

21 May 2024

Goods makers are ramping up production, with global new orders expanding for the third month in a row in April. That may lead to an industrial rebound following the services-driven post-pandemic recovery. But getting cash-poor consumers to buy the merchandise will be a challenge.