Trade

The Group of Seven is bruised but much needed

17 Jun 2024

The club of large, rich nations has struggled with wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Most of its leaders are lame ducks. If Donald Trump becomes US president and Marine Le Pen leads France, they could paralyse it. Co-ordinating advanced democracies is more necessary and harder than ever.

EU tariffs solidify China’s EV hierarchy

13 Jun 2024

Investors brushed off less-than-feared levies on Chinese electric cars, with BYD stock up 3% from two days ago and SAIC down just 2%. For the former, a vertically integrated model and lesser reliance on subsidies mean it can now pull ahead of compatriots at home and abroad.

China can divide-and-trade a less welcoming Europe

13 Jun 2024

EU tariffs on cars are a setback for Beijing. Yet President Xi Jinping will test the bloc’s ability to form a coherent policy against the world’s second largest economy. Hungary is benefiting from rising Chinese investments and trade and will become a key battleground.

Wall Street is contorting to replace China trade

6 Jun 2024

Investment banking revenue in the People's Republic is at the lowest level since 2014. Advisers are chasing fees in India, South Korea and Australia. The biggest hope for offsetting the loss of business from the region’s top economy lies in Japan, where talent is in short supply.

India’s resilient democracy comes with a cost

6 Jun 2024

Narendra Modi will have to rely on a coalition government after a shock upset in the national elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why politicians may dig deeper to support the poor and how power sharing may create challenges for big business.

EU vote is prelude to Europe’s real choice

5 Jun 2024

Some 370 mln voters from 27 member states are set to pick a new assembly. The result will influence how EU government leaders decide who should lead the next European Commission. Backing incumbent Ursula von der Leyen to avoid a chaotic deadlock is in the bloc’s best interest.

Modi 3.0 offers limited opportunities for the West

3 Jun 2024

Western leaders’ hopes for India as a bulwark against China outweigh their concerns about Narendra Modi’s authoritarian streak. They will have more scope to work with the prime minister during his expected third term. But the overlap of interests and values is limited.

Korea’s short-selling aversion mars reform push

30 May 2024

Seoul doesn't want to allow the practice until it stamps out so-called naked illegal trades in the $1.9 trln market. But the problem is overstated and jars with a push to unlock shareholder value. The government's pandering to retail investors only hurts them in the long run.

Gulf bank’s growth push takes wrong turn in Turkey

21 May 2024

After briefly pursuing StanChart last year, First Abu Dhabi Bank may now pay $8 bln for 61% of Istanbul-based Yapi Kredi, Reuters reported. Deepening Turkish-UAE trade links offer a thin rationale. A high price, volatile lira and lack of cost savings make the deal a bad idea.

Manufacturing’s re-heating leaves consumers cold

21 May 2024

Goods makers are ramping up production, with global new orders expanding for the third month in a row in April. That may lead to an industrial rebound following the services-driven post-pandemic recovery. But getting cash-poor consumers to buy the merchandise will be a challenge.

German consumer is poor substitute for China trade

21 May 2024

Consumption is up but won’t be enough to lift the country out of its funk, with growth of just 0.2% this year. Exports to the People’s Republic are threatened by worsening relations between Brussels and Beijing. Meanwhile a split Berlin government looks unable to launch reforms.

Private credit wonder drug works in limited dose

17 May 2024

The quantity of loans channelled directly to companies by funds has exploded to more than $2 trln. The economic benefits of diversified lending just about make up for the risks. The challenge is making sure financial innovation does not starve banks to death.

The dollar and the yuan are polar opposites

16 May 2024

The strong greenback and questions over a Chinese devaluation reflect the contrasting outlooks for the two economies. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate why Beijing is unlikely to push down its currency and why the dollar will remain elevated.

Biden’s China policy is backed into a corner

14 May 2024

The president quadrupled tariffs on electric cars from the People’s Republic as homegrown efforts stumble. China leads on tech, and the US depends on the undependable Tesla. Muddled policy on everything from steel to batteries will only up the pressure for more rearguard actions.

Yuan devaluation isn’t worth the trouble

14 May 2024

A weaker currency would boost exports and prices, but speculation China could engineer a fall underestimates Beijing’s desire for a stable exchange rate. Aggressive US tariffs could change the calculus. For now, official signals point to a slow grind lower against the dollar.

The world can survive a strong dollar – for now

13 May 2024

The greenback has gained 17% against major currencies in three years. Other countries avoided repeating past crises through better fiscal policies and less foreign borrowing. But in the long run a mighty buck will put economies under stress, especially in emerging markets.

New ASML CEO’s job is harder than it might look

9 May 2024

The $360 bln Dutch firm is the sole maker of machines that produce the most advanced chips for Intel and TSMC. New boss Christophe Fouquet effectively runs a monopoly. But he still faces risks from staff retention, China-US spats, and as-yet-opaque risks to ASML’s domination.

EU’s China car tariffs face a very high bar

6 May 2024

Brussels would need levies as high as 50% on Chinese imports to slow sales by BYD and rivals, double recent precedents. It'd prompt a sharp response. President Xi Jinping can use his visit this week to remind Europe’s carmakers how much they stand to lose in such a scenario.

Von der Leyen’s China plan is all bark and no bite

30 Apr 2024

To keep her job atop the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen will talk tough but wield a small stick towards Beijing. Open supply lines from the People’s Republic are key to Europe’s economic well-being. Brussels’ rhetoric will likely be harsher than sanctions and tariffs.

Silicon Valley models value of noncompete ban

24 Apr 2024

A new FTC rule forbids US companies from stopping employees joining a rival, or starting one. Freeing up opportunities for a fifth of the workforce should boost pay. California’s tech hub also showcases other benefits of labor mobility. Intel, for example, exists because of it.