Trade

Investors can ignore glimmers of China trade hope

18 Sep 2018

The latest round of U.S. tariffs on $200 bln of its goods, and China’s response, could have been worse. That buoyed markets. But investors are missing the bigger picture. Talks and hearings haven’t stopped things getting to this point, and they are likely to escalate further.

Trump makes and breaks case for new global order

18 Sep 2018

The U.S. president’s propensity to impose tariffs and ditch multilateral accords may prod developed and emerging countries to plan sturdier safety nets for the world economy and financial system at the G20 and elsewhere. Trump is also the reason they will struggle to succeed.

Guest view: Trump trade war threatens Korean peace

18 Sep 2018

Invoking national security to impose tariffs on car exporters such as Hyundai and Kia is myopic, argue the Korea Society’s president and a former U.S. ambassador to Seoul. As fresh talks with Pyongyang start, it’s worth remembering that politics cannot be divorced from economics.

Trump’s China tariff weapons are getting blunter

17 Sep 2018

The U.S. administration is set to move forward with duties on another $200 bln of imports. Initially, it deftly avoided consumer goods. The expanded list, though, is more policy sledgehammer than scalpel. The pain will be felt by American households and Chinese exporters alike.

Apple gets schooled in lose-lose trade strategy

10 Sep 2018

President Trump suggested that the iPhone maker build products in America if it wants to avoid tariffs on Chinese goods. That sends the message that hurting U.S. companies is an acceptable price to pay for insisting trade partners bend to U.S. demands. Escalation is inevitable.

Volvo’s IPO problems go beyond brewing trade war

10 Sep 2018

The carmaker’s Chinese owner has paused a float worth up to $30 bln. Even without America’s tariff antics, that price tag would have been far too high. Investors are unconvinced old-school auto groups will get a return for their spending on electric and autonomous cars.

Foreign carmakers are caught in a China drive-by

7 Sep 2018

Beijing wants to slash excess auto production at a time when Nissan, Toyota and others hope to expand. Draft rules could cut as much as a third of capacity in the world’s largest car market. Official feuding over the issue too could prove a speed bump, even for global giants.

Trump inadvertently makes free trade cool again

4 Sep 2018

Blaming cheap imports for destroying U.S. jobs helped him win the presidency. Now polls show Americans disapprove of his tariff wars as they could hurt the economy. Even the China-wary Rust Belt worries about import duties raising prices. Trump’s trade blowback could be costly.

Pacific islands a debt domino on China’s Silk Road

4 Sep 2018

Tonga’s prime minister warned of asset seizures as his country struggles to repay $115 mln of Chinese loans. That sounds extreme, but Tonga and its neighbours will try to renegotiate terms. Beijing’s response will show how conciliatory it is willing to be with weaker borrowers.

Delaying NAFTA deal is actually a win-win-win

31 Aug 2018

Canada and the United States will keep talking despite missing a deadline to resolve trade talks. Negotiators will need to move quickly to avoid the risk of fresh demands from the next Mexican government. But a NAFTA that all sides can sell is more important.

NAFTA survival rests on Ottawa showmanship

29 Aug 2018

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is talking up how Mexico’s U.S. “concessions” help Canada. Now she needs a deal, not least on the country’s punitive dairy tariffs, that keeps both the U.S. president and her anti-Trump fellow citizens happy. That’ll require some smooth talking.

Opioids and trade war create toxic cocktail

28 Aug 2018

An inflow of lethal fentanyl from China helped America record nearly 72,000 fatal drug overdoses last year. A breakdown of trust over tariffs may make it harder to cooperate over this dangerous import, and fuel unhelpful arguments about whether supply or demand is to blame.

UK-Africa trade is tiny plaster for Brexit wounds

28 Aug 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May hopes deeper ties with the continent will help cushion the blow of leaving the EU. But UK trade with sub-Saharan Africa is less than 3 pct of what it exchanges with Europe. With Nigeria and South Africa in the doldrums, prospects for growth look slim.

U.S.-Mexico deal is only start of tough NAFTA road

27 Aug 2018

The neighbors agreed to boost regional auto content for tariff-free trade. Now Ottawa will rejoin the talks. Hurdles like dispute panels remain, and Trump’s fresh outburst at Canada will make it hard to close the pact this week. Approval by Congress also isn’t a slam dunk.

Latam’s market-friendly shift is at a parlous pass

27 Aug 2018

Argentina’s faltering growth imperils President Macri’s reforms. Mexico has delayed oil liberalization. Brazil’s main pro-business presidential candidate looks weak. Losing fiscal nous and foreign investment in the region’s biggest economies would hit business and the poor alike.

Mom and pop put a face on U.S. trade folly

24 Aug 2018

Sellers of wedding dresses, lawn sweepers and bike helmets have asked U.S. officials to drop tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese imports. They show how much lower-tech production has moved abroad, taking American jobs, but also how that has created new ones and saved consumers money.

Anti-dollar push can fly in Beijing but not Berlin

24 Aug 2018

Germany’s foreign minister wants a payments system that’s independent of the United States. Europe will struggle to set it up given close transatlantic economic and financial ties. China is better placed and could demand that all who want to access its economy use an alternative.

U.S.-China trade talks stumble on biggest block

24 Aug 2018

Mid-level negotiations yielded no breakthroughs as tariffs hit $16 bln of Chinese goods. The United States wants reforms to industrial policy that would fundamentally alter Beijing’s development model, and might even rewire how it runs the economy. It will struggle to deliver.

Fed vice chair deserves to be top global bank cop

23 Aug 2018

Allies of President Donald Trump have slammed the Financial Stability Board, but Randal Quarles is a strong supporter. Putting the U.S. central banker in charge of the body that oversees financial regulation when Mark Carney steps down would help maintain global rules.

Texan oil dominance teeters on shaky ground

23 Aug 2018

Shale oil helped the U.S. state’s main ports become an exporter of oil for the first time in April. Producers are basking in prices up around 40 percent in a year, and profits that encourage pumping. Tariffs, rising costs and the ease of closing the spigots can quickly change that.