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Trade

The Exchange: Pascal Lamy

6 Nov 2018

Few people have dedicated their careers to expanding international trade and globalism like Lamy, the former head of the WTO and EU commissioner. But rising rhetoric and increased tariffs between the U.S. and China have him worried, as he tells Rob Cox and Liam Proud in Paris.

South Korea can correct its economic missteps

6 Nov 2018

Business investment has tumbled and hiring weakened following a steep minimum wage hike and cap on working hours. Growth in the $1.5 trln export-dependent economy also is sputtering just as the U.S.-China trade war intensifies. Seoul would be wise to make some small adjustments.

U.S.-China mistrust heightens armed-conflict risk

5 Nov 2018

A near-collision between American and Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea is a dangerous sign. Both militaries are stepping up readiness. With trade tensions high and the usual back channels dysfunctional, a clash – or worse – is a concern investors should not dismiss.

Xi’s $40 trln trade show talk deserves discounting

5 Nov 2018

China opened a massive expo Monday, telegraphing its appetite for foreign goods. President Xi spoke of $40 trln in imports over 15 years – a seemingly big figure that implies little growth. Given recent talk of “self-reliance”, neither the fair nor Xi’s speech will change minds.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro gives China electric shock

5 Nov 2018

Beijing-backed energy companies hope to invest tens of billions in Brazilian power, but the president-elect has warned of Chinese intentions. Firms like State Grid would bring needed money and expertise, but populist suspicion might overrule commercial logic.

Cox: A dead president is revived for wrong reasons

1 Nov 2018

While midterm U.S. elections may be a referendum on the living president, in one California town the fight is over William McKinley’s legacy. Citizens will vote on removing a statue of the “Napoleon of Protection”. Tragically overlooked in the debate are his faulty economics.

Budget tests mettle of Malaysia’s mavericks

1 Nov 2018

Mahathir Mohamad's government is set to present the $300 bln economy's most significant blueprint in decades. It needs to burnish reform credentials and soothe rating agencies. Outlining a credible tax plan will be a start; a plan to reduce the state's role is the bigger prize.

Trade and pig diseases infect China’s pork giant

31 Oct 2018

WH Group, $11 bln owner of U.S.-based Smithfield, is fighting a losing battle on two fronts. Deadly swine fever is sweeping China, while tariffs hammer its American market. Quarterly earnings fell by almost a third from a year earlier. It will get worse before it gets better.

Wilbur Ross finally picks right fight with China

30 Oct 2018

Washington has put a provincial chipmaker under an embargo similar to that which crippled telecoms giant ZTE. Fujian Jinhua is accused of IP theft by Idaho-based Micron; this retaliation presumes guilt. Still, targeting smaller state-backed firms is smarter than blanket tariffs.

Struggling Filipino deals expose market flaws

29 Oct 2018

Local champion San Miguel was forced to shrink a stock sale while Melco met resistance to its casino takeover plan. Both episodes provide timely reminders about structural shortcomings for an exchange that trades less daily than smaller Vietnam. To grow will require some fixes.

Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha

25 Oct 2018

As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.

Moutai makes flammable fuel for China’s stimulus

26 Oct 2018

As companies bid for contracts tied to Beijing’s infrastructure surge, many may toast deals with a bottle of China’s best-known liquor. The $110 bln spirit maker offers a boozy play on government spending, but a sales surge could embarrass graft enforcers, prompting a crackdown.

China aims rare-earth bazooka at trade rivals

25 Oct 2018

Beijing is limiting output of tough-to-mine minerals like cerium and neodymium, starving foreign buyers of key ingredients used in electronics and weapons. It's a drastic escalation that will punish profit margins, and yet an overdue rush to develop new supply will come too late.

Xi’s tone-deaf southern tour wastes opportunity

24 Oct 2018

China's leader retraced the steps of liberaliser Deng Xiaoping this week. Yet far from announcing reforms to help the region’s private exporters, he barely spoke as he opened a $15 bln bridge. In other comments, he endorsed self-reliance over trade. Better to have said nothing.

China’s oil bankers blink at Iran sanctions

24 Oct 2018

Bank of Kunlun could soon stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic. Limiting a primary channel for transactions with Tehran is the strongest signal yet that Beijing’s top firms are quietly acceding to Washington’s demands. Iran will struggle to fill the gap.

The Exchange: Stephen Harper

19 Oct 2018

Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.

U.S.-EU derivatives kumbaya could get canned

18 Oct 2018

The U.S. swaps regulator wants to increase global cooperation. But trade tensions, Iran sanctions and a long and painful history of overreach by the U.S. itself are reasons for Europe to say no. Even though both sides could benefit, attempts at playing nice could come to grief.

U.S. Treasury hasn’t yet been Trumped

17 Oct 2018

China again escaped being named a currency manipulator by the U.S. agency, despite pressure from the president. Although some trade-related penalties are already happening through other means, it’s a rational decision. Steady hands at Treasury and the Fed offer investors comfort.

Macau is handy chip in China’s standoff with Trump

15 Oct 2018

The gambling hub’s 20 year licenses for Sands China, Wynn Macau and others are nearing their expiry. It gives Beijing leverage over founders Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn, both friends of the U.S. president. Squeezing them could be one way to get Trump’s attention over trade.