Trade

Viewsroom: Trade war pause may only delay fight

6 Dec 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping agreed to a cooling-off period in an escalating tariff spat. Will the ceasefire yield results or is it a stalling tactic? The markets are spooked. Breakingviews columnists discuss the issue from both sides of the Pacific.

U.S.-China talks depend on speaking same language

3 Dec 2018

The two countries’ trade-ceasefire spin reflects different interpretations and priorities. Whether on auto tariffs or Chinese students in America, negotiators may struggle to restore norms before hostilities began, let alone go further – especially if starting points are garbled.

Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi

3 Dec 2018

Leaving the producer group is justified given big output calls are now taken by Riyadh and non-member Russia. Still, spurning a seat at the table is significant. It’s a way for Doha to flaunt gas riches, while implying a Saudi-led OPEC is increasingly chaotic and less relevant.

Swiss have no easy way out of EU deadlock

3 Dec 2018

The government delayed by a week a decision on an EU treaty that would simplify a maze of bilateral deals. Accepting Brussels’ demands to further open up labour markets would risk defeat in a referendum. But failure to agree means putting barriers around the Swiss stock market.

Xi deftly practices the diplomacy of buying time

3 Dec 2018

Beijing came away from the G20 summit with a welcome ceasefire. Now for the hard part: structural change. China's leader has opportunities in coming weeks to offer a little more - for example, on intellectual property. That will test the minimum required to please Washington.

Trade-war détente leaves booby traps for investors

2 Dec 2018

New tariffs are on hold while China vowed to buy more U.S. goods and may reconsider the Qualcomm-NXP deal. Despite the upbeat tone, President Trump and his hawkish advisers may push too hard. A small 90-day window to hash out an agreement also means things could easily blow up.

NAFTA 2.0 signing is party for protectionism

30 Nov 2018

America, Canada and Mexico cheered their new, if little-changed, trilateral pact. But U.S. officials also noted that steel and aluminum tariffs remain. And the White House wants to pick which carmakers are subject to import duties. Taxing trade is in full swing.

China and U.S. can give a little in Argentina

30 Nov 2018

It will take two to tango in Buenos Aires. The upcoming meet between Presidents Trump and Xi is at risk of yielding nothing. Beijing hints it can't compromise on its state-directed economic model; Washington believes it has conceded more than it should. Both are wrong.

Guest view: Trade war is popular, not populist

29 Nov 2018

President Trump's deployment of tariffs against China is an economically sound attempt to rebalance a distorted relationship, Asia hedge fund manager Stewart Paterson argues. Concerns about inflation's impact on U.S. consumers are overblown; it's Wall Street that should worry.

Fed’s stability checkup downplays wobbly features

28 Nov 2018

Chairman Jerome Powell says the financial system is in good health, echoing a report from the U.S. central bank. The jobless rate is low while inflation remains in check. But risks like trade fights and corporate debt only get brief mentions. Watchdogs may regret that posture.

Island gambit hints at Beijing’s new lower gear

23 Nov 2018

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has intimated China intends to drown Pacific nations in a sea of debt. The actual approach, however, has been reluctantly pragmatic, as in a move to delay repayments from Tonga. The result may be a more sustainable version of the Belt and Road plan.

Tanzania’s nuts policy is so bad it’s good

22 Nov 2018

President John Magufuli is shelling out $320 mln to buy all its cashew crop at a hefty premium to help farmers. The government faces a big loss. Failure would at least expose the folly of ham-fisted state intervention, at odds with Africa’s gradual liberalisation.

G20 showdown hangs on big numbers, big egos

21 Nov 2018

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting is weighing on markets. Despite discord among his aides, the U.S. president has the autonomy to strike a deal if China offers the right incentives. His interest in trade balances and historical strongmen creates an opportunity.

Cox: Trump is surprisingly popular – in China

21 Nov 2018

Figures in the PRC’s private sector are discreetly rooting for the U.S. president. Their interests are not served directly by most of his trade demands. But the absence of domestic pressure on Xi Jinping to open markets further makes Trump’s push for reform the only game in town.

Malaysia claim of Goldman cheating is a bit rich

21 Nov 2018

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s administration says the country was deceived and wants back $600 mln the investment bank made arranging bonds for disgraced 1MDB. Goldman’s compliance was weak, but the last regime knew what it was buying. There’s plenty of blame to go around.

Rates pain compounds UK banks’ Brexit misery

16 Nov 2018

Shares in British lenders fell after government resignations increased the chances of Britain failing to agree a deal with the EU. Investors are pushing back hopes for higher interest rates. That leaves banks stuck with low margins on top of political and economic uncertainty.

Oil forecasting goes from tough to pointless

14 Nov 2018

In recent months crude has hit $86 a barrel, fallen to $65, and is now rising again. Oil prices drive other markets, but predicting them can be a waste of time. Changing demand outlooks, Saudi turmoil and Trump are only the most volatile of a series of uncertainties.

Chinese tourists leave investors holding the bag

14 Nov 2018

Luggage giant Samsonite said mainland sales fell 5 pct last quarter, blaming trade tension and consumer anxiety. Travel website Ctrip is now more cautious, while peer Tongcheng-Elong shrank its IPO. The gloom will globe-trot, including to the planned market debut for Club Med.

Trade war ushers in the compartmentalized economy

8 Nov 2018

Beijing and Washington’s conscious uncoupling could unravel decades-old commercial ties. That doesn’t mean the rest of the world has to choose sides. Companies like electronics maker Philips are mulling how to take advantage of both markets. Business can continue, at a cost.

Trade war leaves mark on U.S. electoral map

7 Nov 2018

The healthy U.S. economy was a helpful running mate for Republicans. But areas like Pennsylvania, hit by duties and retaliatory tariffs arising from Donald Trump’s import levies, were weak spots for his team. It’s a warning for the usual free trade party to remember its roots.