Trade

A made-in-America market will be a distorted one

31 Dec 2018

An all-U.S. iPhone X, if even feasible, could double the current $1,000 price tag. Argentina's cellphone experiment early this decade is a useful comparison. It shows how Donald Trump's import restrictions, taken to their logical end, will only create a dysfunctional economy.

China will outdo U.S. in scramble for Africa

28 Dec 2018

Beijing will cement its position as the leading power on the continent, countering a U.S. pushback. Besides flexing muscles from Djibouti, its first overseas base, China will squeeze U.S. firms out of commercial and mining deals as tensions take on a Cold-War tinge.

Small nations will lose most from U.S. WTO fight

27 Dec 2018

The global trade body’s appeals panel may become paralyzed because of U.S. obstinacy. America, China and the EU can wring commerce concessions without filing complaints. Minnows like Panama and Moldova lack other recourse and will suffer if trade turns into a free-for-all.

A Trump versus Xi wrestling match might just help

26 Dec 2018

Maybe not a real one. But Tencent could tag-team with WWE to build Chinese versions of Triple H and The Undertaker, and vent a bit of trade tension. The $370 bln tech giant would make a burly partner; Tencent would score a PR coup, plus Trump access via co-founder Linda McMahon.

Market adopts role of adult in the room

26 Dec 2018

U.S. stocks have fallen sharply, but in an orderly way. Fund managers and exchanges have handled heavy volume smoothly. That’s despite the unsustainable policies of the Trump administration, and clumsy efforts to instill calm. As long as those persist, prices can fall further.

Financing drought cracks farmers’ loyalty to Trump

24 Dec 2018

The U.S. president’s trade war has evaporated export markets for soy beans and other crops, leaving growers struggling even more than before. Yet they’re mostly sticking by Trump. If he can’t strike a good deal, farmers’ faith will erode when credit dries up for the next harvest.

Viewsroom: Dealing in high anxiety

20 Dec 2018

Equity valuations are in the stratosphere and geopolitical risk is running hot. Breakingviews columnists predict how that’ll affect markets in 2019, from trade-war fallout to Indian privatizations, a Deutsche Bank rally and mining M&A. They also assess last year’s prognostications.

U.S. cyber allegations risk bigger rift with China

20 Dec 2018

The United States indicted Chinese hackers while its allies condemned cyber thefts. The moves, like the recent detention of Huawei’s CFO, are ostensibly separate from trade talks, but Beijing won’t see it that way. The Trump administration may have to choose its priority target.

Shinzo Abe will strike accord with Donald Trump

19 Dec 2018

With some 5 mln autoworkers to protect from tariff pain, Japan’s prime minister will have little choice but to sign a bilateral U.S. trade deal. Expect the new NAFTA’s anti-China clause to feature. Seeking warmer relations with Tokyo, Beijing is apt to look the other way.

Xi passes up his chance to play Santa

18 Dec 2018

In a speech to mark 40 years since China’s shift to a more market-orientated economy, the president failed to announce bold new measures and wasted a chance to offer the U.S. trade concessions. It’s a stark reminder of how far hopes have fallen for liberalisation on Xi’s watch.

Wall Street could use remedial lectures on culture

17 Dec 2018

The New York Fed’s push to improve industry behavior deserves top watchdog billing. Goldman’s 1MDB mess is only one reminder the message hasn’t totally sunk in. Slower economic growth in 2019 could expose more lapses. It’s a good time for boss John Williams to badger his charges.

Canada faces off against vampire squid to south

17 Dec 2018

U.S. tax cuts and protectionism are going to suck the life out of the Canadian economy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has two options: join the fiscal race to the bottom, or address the reasons Canada was already falling behind its neighbor. Looming elections add to the urgency.

China’s economic slouch will rattle cult of Xi

17 Dec 2018

Growth will keep slowing toward 6 pct amid a muddled plan to spark private investment while protecting state dinosaurs. That might embolden subdued Beijing reformers to push back against President Xi Jinping. Expect more defaults, fewer tech crackdowns and faster market opening.

German carmakers could show Trump art of the deal

14 Dec 2018

VW, Daimler and BMW are vulnerable to 25 pct auto tariffs threatened by the U.S. president, who’s also railing against GM for idling plants. The Germans could win some goodwill by taking up some of their American rivals’ spare capacity. That’s easier done for some than others.

Investors could use a bit more skepticism on trade

13 Dec 2018

Stocks have rallied after signs Beijing is giving ground on some U.S. demands, including cutting tariffs and opening markets. Yet America's hawks won’t be wooed by skin-deep changes and tensions extend broadly, including to Chinese hacking. Any truce could easily be tripped up.

China’s murky moves hand Trump more ammo

13 Dec 2018

Ottawa has lost contact with another citizen after Beijing detained an ex-diplomat. It will be considered retaliation for the arrest of Huawei’s CFO. Despite other concessions, such tactics stand to alienate China scholars, embolden U.S. hardliners and make trade peace harder.

China-U.S. trade war will get a lot more personal

12 Dec 2018

Washington and Beijing’s tariff truce is looking fragile. The arrest of tech giant Huawei's CFO on U.S. behest complicates matters. Detention is a common business negotiation tactic in China, as a Canadian ex-diplomat just found out. U.S. executives have good cause to worry.

Apple case underscores Chinese tech ties that bind

11 Dec 2018

A mainland court banned the sale of older iPhone models just days after Huawei’s CFO was detained in Canada. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators have revived old concerns about Chinese audits. Trade-war-related or not, the decisions allude to how many connection points there are to sever.

China’s export mystery may grant economy reprieve

11 Dec 2018

Shipments manage to keep rising despite U.S. tariffs. Many assume it’s due to “front-loading” orders to get ahead of duties, yet evidence is thin. If foreign demand has been a genuine driver up to now, Beijing will have a far easier time coping with the looming slowdown.

Ericsson debacle exposes costs of anti-Huawei push

7 Dec 2018

The Swedish group’s glitchy software crashed some telecom networks. Yet it may grab market share, with its rival’s CFO under arrest and governments backing away from the Chinese company’s kit. A more concentrated market would mean higher prices and a risk of further big outages.