Trade

China coal curbs blow diplomatic smog Down Under

22 Feb 2019

At least one big port has put a lid on Australian imports, Reuters says. Beijing has used such tactics in the past to reduce stockpiles and support domestic prices. But denting a top export earner for Canberra will be seen as a message too, when ties are already under strain.

China’s trade problems go well beyond Trump

21 Feb 2019

Beijing hopes harsh terms in any tariff pact could be undone if the U.S. president loses re-election. But Democratic White House hopefuls like Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders are also tough on China. No matter who wins in 2020, bashing the People’s Republic is here to stay.

U.S. soy farmers will suffer trade war shell shock

20 Feb 2019

Midwestern producers will place a bet on talks between Washington and Beijing, when planting begins. Even with a deal, they face stockpiles and fewer soy-eating pigs in China, after an outbreak of disease. Worse, the spat has taught their top buyer it can live without U.S. supply.

Artificial intelligence push lacks intelligence

11 Feb 2019

A U.S. plan to add oomph to AI research reflects anxiety about Chinese advances, and may give firms confidence to invest in smart systems. But it’s mostly symbolic without funding on basic research and openness to foreign talent. That jars with President Trump’s other priorities.

U.S. auto tariffs may force trade-war ceasefire

8 Feb 2019

Talks with Europe and Japan are not going well, increasing the odds of the White House taxing their vehicle imports. The possible $42 bln sales hit and 200,000 lost jobs would hurt voters in a way Trump’s overall tariff tirade hasn’t. That may finally prompt lawmakers to wake up.

Trump World Bank pick would be fox in the henhouse

5 Feb 2019

The U.S. president is set to nominate David Malpass to lead the global lender. He’s skeptical of multilateralism and of closer ties to China. A challenger for the job – usually America’s choice – hasn’t yet emerged. Some World Bank priorities, like climate change, could fade.

Trump’s trade pounce is a gift to China

31 Jan 2019

The U.S. president says it’s his and Xi Jinping’s job to strike a tariff deal. Asserting the importance of his personal involvement reflects his desire for a pact and may mean Beijing won’t have to make big concessions. It puts hardline White House negotiators in a tough spot.

Harley’s tariff woes are more sidecar than engine

29 Jan 2019

The $6 bln motorcycle maker clashed with Donald Trump over trade barriers. But its big problem is generational. With Hog-riding baby boomers aging fast and the appeal of big internal-combustion engines on the wane, Harley needs products that will spark millennials’ interest.

The Exchange: Joseph Tsai

29 Jan 2019

Alibaba’s co-founder and executive vice chairman joins Breakingviews to reveal what the future holds for the $400 billion tech giant. As investors fret over economic uncertainties, Tsai also tackles the recent fallout from Huawei, a bruising trade war and the case for tax cuts.

Cox: Cannabis and impeachment on readers’ minds

28 Jan 2019

When asked which investment would outperform in 2019, participants at our Predictions events around the world chose Canadian weed stocks most over other assets. Most also put the chance of Congress impeaching Trump at 30 pct or higher. Consider some other surprising results.

Trump risks Pyrrhic victory in China trade war

23 Jan 2019

Market woes could push the U.S. president to accept superficial concessions such as Beijing buying more American goods without cutting subsidies or stopping tech transfers. Yet the damage inflicted by his tariff fights on everything from farmers to supply chains could be lasting.

Breakdown: Clipping Huawei’s global 5G ambitions

18 Jan 2019

China's telecoms-equipment giant is in crisis. Its CFO has been arrested over alleged sanctions violations, and a security backlash has intensified in Europe. As the race to dominate next-generation wireless technology speeds up, Huawei's woes will have costly ramifications.

Viewsroom: China’s slowdown is not created equal

17 Jan 2019

People in the Middle Kingdom are buying fewer iPhones and cars, but Nike and others are chugging away nicely. Meanwhile, India’s struggling rural farmers are a force too big to ignore in this year’s general election. Plus: The Detroit auto show reflects the industry’s gloom.

Waning China FDI overshadows trade worries

15 Jan 2019

Foreign investment into mainland businesses grew less than 1 pct in yuan terms last year, to $131 bln. Flows to North America and Europe also tanked. Deepening suspicions are as much to blame as weaker demand. This retreat poses longer-term concerns than imports and exports.

World Bank could be a new stick to beat China

7 Jan 2019

Jim Yong Kim has quit as head of the global lender, and the White House has a big say on his replacement. American officials had already pressured the bank to lend less to China and warned about Beijing’s influence. A hawkish new boss could create a new front in the trade war.

Looser China drops hints of trade pain ahead

7 Jan 2019

The central bank says it will slash the amount lenders need to hold in reserve, freeing up a net $117 bln. It’s not full-blown stimulus. Still, an easing move on the eve of talks signals Donald Trump may be right: China’s economy, and its negotiating position, is weakening.

iPhones are unreliable Chinese shopping indicators

4 Jan 2019

Apple’s warning about China iPhone sales has freaked out markets. Yet foreign luxury brands – such as thousand dollar smartphones - make shallow indicators of broader trends. Chinese demand is indeed cooling, but unevenly. Investors need not panic just yet.

Viewsroom: Who will be 2019’s free-trade champion?

3 Jan 2019

Big economies are throwing up tariffs, but East Africa’s common market could swell to 250 mln people if Ethiopia joins the club. Breakingviews columnists also predict this year will bring the end of easy money for Chinese startups, and a challenge to Tesla from Lyft and Uber.

Apple sales warning is a Chinese joint venture

2 Jan 2019

Investors may not always believe China’s official data, but Apple’s warning that iPhone sales rapidly decelerated in the country sends an alarming message about the main engine of global growth. Still, in some ways the U.S. tech giant may be at the sharp end of the slowdown.

Tech to disrupt supply chains more than trade wars

2 Jan 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs give global companies an incentive to manufacture locally. But the shift was already underway because of new technologies like automation. Carmakers and pharma groups will localise more production in 2019 even if tensions over commerce abate.