Trade

Trump tariff threats shake trade deal foundations

6 May 2019

The U.S. president says he will soon hike duties on $200 bln of Chinese goods. It may well be a negotiating ploy, but has rattled markets anyway, just as both economies have steadied. Such bursts of frustration are worrying, and may make it harder for an eventual pact to stick.

America is a 2 pct economy growing at 3.2 pct

26 Apr 2019

The faster-than-expected first-quarter growth rate isn’t everything it seems. Trade swings and an inventory bulge drove much of the increase while consumer spending and business investment slowed. The news caused interest rates to drop, which should keep recession risks at bay.

Belt and Road repairs fix only some potholes

25 Apr 2019

Beijing's gathering this week to promote its $1 trln-plus foreign policy push comes after a year of unprecedented troubles, from Pakistan to Malaysia. Under pressure, China has shown some welcome flexibility. But U.S. hostility is ramping up too; that’s far harder to pave over.

The Exchange: Marco Polo 2.0

23 Apr 2019

Italy irked the United States by backing Beijing’s grand infrastructure plan. The country needs to improve ties with the People’s Republic to sell more wine and other exports, says Rome’s top China expert. Overcoming trade barriers will, however, require an EU team effort.

Canola exposes Beijing’s blunt diplomatic tools

4 Apr 2019

Officials are scrutinising Canadian exporters of the stuff on quality concerns. China’s status as a giant trader is one of its few real geopolitical levers. But using health and safety for political ends also hampers watchdogs doing much-needed work to improve standards at home.

U.S. AI export crackdown may hurt people, too

1 Apr 2019

Foreigners in America could get caught in a government proposal to restrict exports of robotics and other tech to China and elsewhere. A license may be needed for temporary residents to work on such projects. It would undercut Alphabet, Amazon and others that recruit overseas.

Swiss freight group gets pirate’s bounty from DSV

1 Apr 2019

The Danish logistics company is handing over shares worth $4.6 bln for Panalpina after a months-long spat involving activist Cevian and a charitable foundation. The price is too good to turn down. Expert acquirer DSV will have to beat its own track record to make the deal pay.

Viewsroom: Who will drive off with Fiat Chrysler?

28 Mar 2019

Peugeot and Renault both seem keen to merge with the Italo-American carmaker. Either deal could improve earnings from smaller cars, but couldn’t plug all Fiat Chrysler’s gaps in Asia and new tech. Plus: Apple’s underwhelming new services. And can Huawei’s charm offensive succeed?

Economy will displace Mueller in U.S. headlines

25 Mar 2019

The special counsel’s verdict that President Trump didn’t collude with Russia removes a layer of political risk. But markets have other anxieties like flagging earnings and investment. Ending trade wars would help, and Trump’s renewed political capital gives him room to maneuver.

U.S. floods add new twists to 2020 elections

21 Mar 2019

Several midwestern states have suffered some of their worst deluges on record, raising more climate-change fears. That could influence voters in Iowa, where presidential candidates face their first test. And the floods’ financial toll may prompt underwater farmers to dump Trump.

Hong Kong fumbles its China extradition fix

21 Mar 2019

The city may exclude white-collar crimes from a mooted deal to exchange suspects with the mainland, to assuage the business community’s concerns. Unfortunately, such an awkward compromise would only confirm the tension between the financial hub’s needs and Beijing’s ambitions.

Recruitment is weak link in U.S.-China tech war

18 Mar 2019

Trump officials are building IP theft cases and mulling AI export bans. But the government can’t stop Chinese firms from opening offices stateside and hiring from rivals: Tesla wannabe Nio has 600 workers in San Jose. Talent is fair game and U.S. firms must fend for themselves.

The Exchange: Out of the desert, into a trade war

12 Mar 2019

Weijian Shan spent his youth labouring in the Gobi Desert. Now he runs $30 bln at PAG, after stints at TPG and the World Bank. One of the first Chinese to study in America after the Cultural Revolution, Shan discusses trade tensions, and the economic risk of historical amnesia.

U.S. import levies are knives at a gunfight

6 Mar 2019

Donald Trump wants to cut America’s trade deficit. But the U.S. posted a record goods shortfall in December. The president’s tax cuts are stoking the country’s appetite for imports more powerfully than his tariffs can restrain it – while rapidly running up a fiscal deficit, too.

Resurgence of carry trades is riddled with risk

6 Mar 2019

Borrowing low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones is back in vogue. That’s because major central banks are deferring policy tightening and volatility is low. One or the other of these reasons may all too easily vanish, leaving followers of the trend high and dry.

Seats are elusive in U.S. trade musical chairs

4 Mar 2019

Some kind of deal with China may be within reach. Yet Trump officials are considering cutting India from a duty-free program. Congress wants to change a pact with Canada and Mexico. And talks with the EU and Japan are tense. For businesses, trade clarity is in short supply.

China’s parliament will address half the problem

4 Mar 2019

The annual legislative session starts Tuesday, setting key economic targets for officials attempting to balance growth against debt. But investors hoping it will resolve bigger questions about trade, industrial policy, and foreign suspicion of Chinese tech will be disappointed.

Viewsroom: Warren Buffett eats crow

28 Feb 2019

Kraft Heinz’s poor earnings, $15 bln writedown and accounting investigation forced the Berkshire Hathaway boss to admit he overpaid for the nuts-to-Velveeta cheese purveyor. Breakingviews columnists discuss what went wrong. Plus: Trump buys more time in his China trade spat.

U.S. economy offers something for everyone

28 Feb 2019

GDP growth slowed to a 2.6 pct annual pace in the fourth quarter. That’s faster than forecast, though the 2.9 pct full-year figure fell short of Donald Trump’s target. The president, the Fed and market watchers can all take comfort, while worriers may still fret about this year.

U.S. stocks daze Trump into folding on China

25 Feb 2019

The president says he will delay a tariff hike on $200 bln of Chinese goods. Tweets imply he will ease up on Huawei too. Wall Street wobbles have pushed the White House toward a quick-and-dirty deal which empowers Beijing hardliners, and benefits neither side in the long run.