Trade

Hadas: Peaceful trade theory ominously unravels

17 Jul 2019

From 18th century enthusiasm for “doux commerce” to the WTO, optimists have considered trade a good antidote to combat. From the Opium Wars to Trump’s tariffs, reality has been much more conflictual. The latest round of globalisation isn’t quite dead, but is badly wounded.

Tokyo and Seoul can ill afford a standoff

11 Jul 2019

South Korea could take aim at Japanese machinery and equipment as payback for export curbs targeting its vital chip industry. That risks WTO ire and casts a shadow over $85 bln of bilateral dealings. For two economies weakened by one trade war, stoking a second is reckless.

Perot showed even also-rans have their day

9 Jul 2019

The late Ross Perot twice failed to become U.S. president, but some of his controversial views on globalization are now mainstream. That should comfort long-shot 2020 hopefuls like billionaire Tom Steyer, who bring punchy ideas that other contenders might be better at selling.

Huawei is now driving the U.S.-China trade bus

1 Jul 2019

President Trump’s ban on the Chinese telecom firm made sense, but mixing business and national security puts his own party in a bind. It’ll be hard to seal a broader trade deal without giving Huawei a break. U.S. lawmakers won’t like it, but politics may force them to cave.

New trade-war ceasefire has familiar feel

29 Jun 2019

Donald Trump will restart talks with Xi Jinping and hold off imposing new tariffs on about $300 bln of Chinese exports. Huawei also got a nod at the G20 meeting. A deal may seem closer, but investors would be wise to hedge their bets. The last détente wound up falling apart.

China is elephant in the room amid 2020 Democrats

27 Jun 2019

White House contenders touted better healthcare access, immigration reform and college aid in their first debates. Donald Trump’s China trade war was briefly discussed. It’s an awkward topic as many agree with the president. The question is if they would continue his legacy.

Capitalism will be villain of 2020 U.S. elections

26 Jun 2019

Democratic presidential contenders sparring in their first debate agreed on one thing: America’s economic system has helped mainly the rich. Even on socialism-averse Wall Street that idea has gained traction. Free markets are emerging as a political bogeyman.

FedEx gets caught in a trade-war vise

25 Jun 2019

The $41 bln parcel carrier is suing the U.S. government over onerous rules for exports, not least to China. Meanwhile, its own errors may land it on a Beijing blacklist. FedEx can handle a profit hit, but getting embroiled in a tariff fight would put it further behind rival UPS.

Guest view: Time for Trump to give Seoul its due

25 Jun 2019

Struggling South Korea has been importing more U.S. goods while Lotte Chemical invests in Louisiana. In return, the White House should exempt the country from threatened auto tariffs and take it off a currency manipulators watchlist, says Korea Society President Thomas Byrne.

Trump will be first to blink in China stare-down

24 Jun 2019

The U.S. president and counterpart Xi Jinping will try to restart trade talks at this week’s G20 summit. Trump may be hoping Beijing will back down, but he needs a deal more – and Xi is feeling combative. That could lead to an agreement with only a superficial U.S. victory.

Apple’s march from China is long and inevitable

19 Jun 2019

The idea of the iPhone maker shifting 30% of production elsewhere may concentrate minds as the U.S. and China square up in trade talks. Such a move would take years. Detroit and London show economic clusters rarely implode. But they can erode, and the process is hard to stop.

The Exchange: John Delaney

17 Jun 2019

The first Democrat to bid for 2020’s presidential election has a pitch rarely heard in today’s political slugfest: that Democrats and Republicans can get along. Despite being a peacemaker, the former Maryland congressman has some punchy views on China, Big Tech and drug prices.

Beijing yields to Hong Kong’s financial clout

15 Jun 2019

Carrie Lam has suspended a bill that would have allowed extradition to the mainland, backing down after protests rocked the city she leads. It’s a defeat for her, and leaves egg on the central government’s face. But for China, Hong Kong’s economic utility trumps political control.

Africa’s sweet cocoa cartel misses bigger prize

14 Jun 2019

Ivory Coast and Ghana have set a minimum selling price for the chocolate ingredient to try to help farmers. The pair control two-thirds of global supply, way more than OPEC does for oil. The real riches in cocoa, though, lie in processing the beans, not just growing them.

Adani’s coal victory Down Under is pyrrhic

14 Jun 2019

The Indian group has a green light to start digging at Australia's $1.5 bln Carmichael mine, after years of opposition. Yet prices for power station fuel are soft, and the market is oversupplied. Its billionaire owner will feel vindicated, but it's hard to see how he makes money.

Hurricane Trump may give Beijing some cover

14 Jun 2019

A torrent of rising U.S. tariffs threatens to wash out some of China’s growth. There’s far more behind the slowdown, but just as CEOs cite bad weather to obscure underlying issues, officials could use the trade war to release more stimulus or just blame Trump for missed targets.

Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show

10 Jun 2019

U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.

Rare earths expose the trouble with next-gen M&A

6 Jun 2019

Beijing's threat to squeeze sales of the minerals has boosted $1.3 bln Lynas, one of few non-Chinese producers. That’s a blow for suitor Wesfarmers. It's also a reminder of how limited targets and opaque prices have challenged corporate heavyweights looking to tap new metals.

Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire

5 Jun 2019

President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.

Mexico tariffs may lead to more bills for America

4 Jun 2019

The southern neighbor hopes to avoid import taxes by doing more to stop migrant crossings. But a weak economy and lower oil revenue have already forced Mexico to cut its 2019 budget. President Donald Trump may need to stump up even more aid to help the country meet his demands.