Trade

Old theories offer new insight into global rivalry

14 Oct 2024

The geographer Halfold Mackinder in 1904 proposed that future strife would revolve around control of Eurasia. Though the modern world is very different, it’s one way to understand conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the showdown between the United States and China.

Autos’ car crash ups the likelihood of EU airbags

30 Sep 2024

Stellantis and Volkswagen delivered big profit warnings, amid falling demand for cars. Their woes may encourage policymakers to vote through tariffs on Chinese rivals and go easy on EU carbon fines. But falling output and strained consumers mean carmakers need self-help too.

EU deforestation ban creates a hazy trade future

23 Sep 2024

The European Union wants to ban agricultural imports from deforested land. The rules have laudable aims but will impact $400 bln worth of goods. Developing nations are already exporting elsewhere. To avoid losing vital supplies, Brussels can compensate farmers or lower standards.

China-EU trade spat’s next swipe may hit LVMH

23 Sep 2024

Beijing is weighing up retaliating against EU tariffs on electric cars. Targeting the French luxury giant and its rivals would cause minimal strategic pain and hit Paris rather than Berlin. Higher consumption taxes, rather than import duties, could also fit with domestic reforms.

ASML faces bigger problems than China

16 Sep 2024

Fears of US tech export curbs have pummelled the $320 bln Dutch firm’s shares. A longer-term worry is that the growth of AI leads to new technologies, and less need for ASML’s machines that make chips smaller and efficient. That, more than trade wars, may hurt its rich valuation.

The European Union risks a sad, bad future

16 Sep 2024

The EU economy is stagnating, while Russia, China and even the United States may bully the bloc. There are potential fixes, as former European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi set out last week. But the EU and its members are currently in no position to implement them.

China wins only token victory in EU car wars

13 Sep 2024

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez wants Europe to drop duties on Chinese EVs, suggesting the Middle Kingdom’s plan to turn member states is working. But blocking the levy will be legally tricky, and Brussels’ credibility is at stake. Beijing faces a long road to upend the union’s plans.

Trade War II will be easy to lose for China

4 Sep 2024

The hit to its exports from higher US tariffs threatened by Presidential nominee Donald Trump would be severe. Beijing’s failure to abide by the terms of past truces will make de-escalation hard to achieve, so will its determination to export its way out of a growth slump.

Shipping rates yet to signal a calmer Middle East

22 Aug 2024

The US is pushing hard for an Israel-Hamas peace deal. But shipping executives expect rates to stay high this year as vessels avoid the Red Sea. While only a rough gauge of regional tensions, the freight experts may be more accurate forecasters than ceasefire optimists.

Iran danger marks return of oil’s risk premium

13 Aug 2024

Conflict in Gaza and tit-for-tat attacks in the Middle East have desensitised markets to possible supply shocks. A US warning of imminent retaliation against Israel changes that. Despite weaker demand, oil prices reflect the dangers of infrastructure and tankers becoming targets.

Volkswagen’s restart faces further roadblocks

1 Aug 2024

The bloated $56 bln German carmaker is cutting costs further, as it tries to hit bold profit targets. CEO Oliver Blume’s 6.3% operating margin is better than it looks. But Chinese competition and stringent carbon targets make for a tricky road ahead.

Carmakers strain to navigate the next swerves

1 Aug 2024

After responding to the unexpected success of $720 bln Tesla, older manufacturers now face rising China exports amid slower EV growth. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how GM, VW and others – including governments – are handling the nascent trade war.

Chinese EV IPO drives a precarious line in Asia

26 Jul 2024

Hozon may raise $1 bln in Hong Kong to finance a regional expansion. Countries like Thailand and Indonesia hold even more appeal for the Neta maker and rivals like BYD as the EU and US erect roadblocks. But pushing hard into small markets risks rapid saturation and a backlash.

India wants to be China’s gateway to the West

26 Jul 2024

Rather than integrate into its neighbour’s supply chain, the South Asian country wants to court Chinese investment. Its annual economic survey lays out a way for firms from Shein to BYD to keep selling in Western markets. A lot rides on how the Sino-American trade war plays out.

China’s EU-made EVs are in pole position – for now

19 Jul 2024

BYD and Chery are planning plants in the European Union; peers will follow. While factors like labour and energy add 25% to the cost of cars made in the bloc, tech and design mean the overall product is cheaper than Western rivals’. But Brussels could yet complicate matters.

Trump 2.0 might be the same, but much more

18 Jul 2024

After an earth-shaking few weeks in US politics, the Republican presidential candidate’s odds of returning to the White House look higher. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what a second term might look like, and why Trump might be empowered this time.

Americans’ travel bug is too much of a good thing

18 Jul 2024

More US citizens are going to Europe than vice versa, creating a $27 bln tourism-related trade gap, the biggest in over two decades. Sometimes there’s a simple reason: it can be cheaper to see Taylor Swift abroad. But a persistent travel deficit could have ominous symbolism.

World polycrisis hangs on US politics

15 Jul 2024

The shocking attempted assassination of Donald Trump doesn’t just unveil the fragility of the US political environment. The globe also has much at stake in the outcome of November’s election. A victory for the former president would carry risks for Ukraine, trade and the planet.

Tariffs offer poor airbag for Europe’s carmageddon

15 Jul 2024

Volkswagen, Renault and others still have miserable valuations despite Brussels threatening China with penalties on electric-vehicle imports. The duties may not be big enough, and could even hurt Western players. Possible fixes, like rowing back on carbon targets, look tricky.

China’s weak economy awaits new remedies

15 Jul 2024

Growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter. Real estate woes endure and lacklustre consumption points to a greater reliance on exports. Policymakers can still hit their annual GDP target, but the sobering data ups the stakes for fresh fixes from this week’s Third Plenum.