Trade

Volkswagen’s restart faces further roadblocks

1 Aug 2024

The bloated $56 bln German carmaker is cutting costs further, as it tries to hit bold profit targets. CEO Oliver Blume’s 6.3% operating margin is better than it looks. But Chinese competition and stringent carbon targets make for a tricky road ahead.

Carmakers strain to navigate the next swerves

1 Aug 2024

After responding to the unexpected success of $720 bln Tesla, older manufacturers now face rising China exports amid slower EV growth. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how GM, VW and others – including governments – are handling the nascent trade war.

Chinese EV IPO drives a precarious line in Asia

26 Jul 2024

Hozon may raise $1 bln in Hong Kong to finance a regional expansion. Countries like Thailand and Indonesia hold even more appeal for the Neta maker and rivals like BYD as the EU and US erect roadblocks. But pushing hard into small markets risks rapid saturation and a backlash.

India wants to be China’s gateway to the West

26 Jul 2024

Rather than integrate into its neighbour’s supply chain, the South Asian country wants to court Chinese investment. Its annual economic survey lays out a way for firms from Shein to BYD to keep selling in Western markets. A lot rides on how the Sino-American trade war plays out.

China’s EU-made EVs are in pole position – for now

19 Jul 2024

BYD and Chery are planning plants in the European Union; peers will follow. While factors like labour and energy add 25% to the cost of cars made in the bloc, tech and design mean the overall product is cheaper than Western rivals’. But Brussels could yet complicate matters.

Trump 2.0 might be the same, but much more

18 Jul 2024

After an earth-shaking few weeks in US politics, the Republican presidential candidate’s odds of returning to the White House look higher. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what a second term might look like, and why Trump might be empowered this time.

Americans’ travel bug is too much of a good thing

18 Jul 2024

More US citizens are going to Europe than vice versa, creating a $27 bln tourism-related trade gap, the biggest in over two decades. Sometimes there’s a simple reason: it can be cheaper to see Taylor Swift abroad. But a persistent travel deficit could have ominous symbolism.

World polycrisis hangs on US politics

15 Jul 2024

The shocking attempted assassination of Donald Trump doesn’t just unveil the fragility of the US political environment. The globe also has much at stake in the outcome of November’s election. A victory for the former president would carry risks for Ukraine, trade and the planet.

Tariffs offer poor airbag for Europe’s carmageddon

15 Jul 2024

Volkswagen, Renault and others still have miserable valuations despite Brussels threatening China with penalties on electric-vehicle imports. The duties may not be big enough, and could even hurt Western players. Possible fixes, like rowing back on carbon targets, look tricky.

China’s weak economy awaits new remedies

15 Jul 2024

Growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter. Real estate woes endure and lacklustre consumption points to a greater reliance on exports. Policymakers can still hit their annual GDP target, but the sobering data ups the stakes for fresh fixes from this week’s Third Plenum.

EU’s China trade weak spots hide in plain sight

9 Jul 2024

Beijing may retaliate after Brussels imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Of the 5,000 product groups the People’s Republic imports from the EU, many are too crucial or too small to bother with. But luxury goods, petrol cars and some foods are plausible targets.

BYD’s overseas road trip offers EU new tariffs map

9 Jul 2024

The $94 bln EV maker has just opened a factory in Thailand and is spending $1 bln to build one in Turkey. Both countries agreed preferential terms for Chinese carmakers’ imports in exchange for local production. These deals might inspire Brussels to re-engineer its own policies.

Global economy finds new ways to keep growing

8 Jul 2024

Despite fears of a slowdown, world GDP is expanding at 3.5% a year, faster than in 2023. As the US engine loses thrust, Europe and emerging markets are picking up. A sluggish China and geopolitical confrontations are risks. But for now, investors can enjoy a Goldilocks moment.

Labour ‘open for business’ stance faces early test

5 Jul 2024

New UK PM Keir Starmer wants to boost growth and attract capital. He must balance those priorities with political anxiety about inbound investment. Companies like Royal Mail and Thames Water will show where he draws the line, and how he wields extensive powers to block M&A.

China has an incentive to keep road to Europe open

26 Jun 2024

Beijing agreed to start talks with the EU on the bloc's planned tariffs on China-made EVs. Carmakers can survive but the issue represents a larger threat. It would hurt the $18 trln economy to add a full blown trade war with the EU to its escalating one with the United States.

India’s options trade faces a less lucrative reset

25 Jun 2024

Officials are planning tighter margin and disclosure rules in the booming equity derivatives market, where contracts clock $135 bln a month. That will help protect retail traders and pre-empt a wider bust. Losers may include upstart discount brokers and firms like Jane Street.

Red Sea gives shipping an Uber-style price surge

24 Jun 2024

Container rates have spiked well above their level when Houthi attacks first shut the Suez Canal. Surging demand as exporters seek to get ahead of looming trade tariffs is one reason why. But that in turn would be easier to manage if traffic didn’t have to go round Africa.

Shein’s tax perk is as American as apple pie

20 Jun 2024

The fast-fashion retailer and its rival Temu skirt import levies courtesy of a loophole critics want to close. That’s easier said than done. In any case, the Chinese-founded firms aren’t the only ones to build empires with the aid of quirks in the US tax system.

Pork glut gives China an edge in EU tariff fight

18 Jun 2024

Domestic overcapacity means the world’s top consumer of the white meat can afford to slap duties on EU imports in response to levies on EVs. European farmers may also find it harder to work around the tariffs than Chinese automakers. It's a savvy move by Beijing.

China’s EV makers can ride the tariffs backlash

18 Jun 2024

The US and the EU have imposed hefty import duties on electric vehicles BYD, Tesla and others make in the People’s Republic. In this Exchange podcast, consultant and former Chrysler executive Bill Russo explains why Europe’s levies are more a speeding fine than a stop sign.