Trade

U.S.-China trade deal augurs modest peace dividend

14 Oct 2019

Donald Trump says a partial pact with Beijing includes up to $50 bln in agricultural purchases. Key issues like IP theft are up in the air, though. And many companies have already begun the pricey process of upending supply chains. Any spoils of war will fall short of the costs.

Markets show Boris Johnson benefits of Brexit deal

11 Oct 2019

Sterling and stocks in UK-focused companies rose after Britain’s prime minister and his Irish peer said they had a “pathway” out of their standoff. Agreement is far from certain, as is parliamentary approval. But the advantages of avoiding a chaotic departure are crystal clear.

Angola’s answer to Aramco has similarly tricky IPO

9 Oct 2019

Like Saudi Arabia, the secretive African nation wants to float its state oil firm. With a possible $50 billion valuation, Sonangol is no minnow but years of delays suggest a 2022 listing deadline could slip. As with Riyadh, the long-term threat to oil gives good reason to hurry.

“South Park” makes an anti-diplomat out of Viacom

8 Oct 2019

The animated series is banned in China after it poked fun at Hollywood’s willingness to self-censor. Owner Viacom’s business in the PRC makes it vulnerable to reprisals. For now, it can enjoy the soft power that comes from being one of few U.S. brands prepared to speak its mind.

Turkey economic plan is hostage to foreign policy

8 Oct 2019

A 2020 growth goal of 5% is ambitious but not madcap. Subsiding inflation means there’s room to cut interest rates. But if military action in Syria hit markets or trigger U.S. sanctions, policymakers will face a choice of defending the lira or easing policy to help the economy.

The Exchange: Richard McGregor

8 Oct 2019

One of the world's foremost experts on the Chinese state has a new book on global backlash against President Xi Jinping. McGregor, a Lowy Institute Fellow, argues internal resistance against Xi's agenda is finding some traction, and explains why Beijing got Hong Kong so wrong.

Trump’s booze tariffs may cause extended hangover

3 Oct 2019

Washington slapped levies on $7.5 bln of European imports including Scottish whisky and French wine in return for aircraft subsidies. That’s weaker than feared: Less than 5% of Diageo’s sales are affected, Jefferies reckons. But trade tensions could prompt more trips to the bar.

Boris Johnson’s Brexit long shot is short of time

3 Oct 2019

The prime minister’s long-awaited blueprint for leaving the EU has major flaws. Even if Brussels agrees to negotiate, it is far from clear that parliament would approve a deal rather than extend the Oct. 31 deadline. A final showdown may have to wait until after an election.

Ecuador exit an irksome speck in OPEC’s eye

2 Oct 2019

Saudi Arabia may shrug off the latest departure from the oil-producing group over which it presides. Ecuador has other priorities that make it expedient to detach. But the net effect is bad for OPEC, because it’s a reminder that the value of membership is dwindling.

Japan’s deal with Trump clears economic decks

26 Sep 2019

Prime Minister Abe has won an accord with Washington covering agriculture, machine tools and digital products. Critically, Tokyo’s automotive sector may also escape punishing tariffs. Abe can now focus on shoring up his weak economy, and Trump on cutting a deal with China.

Pig crisis gives China a shot at transparency

18 Sep 2019

African swine fever has driven local pork prices up by about 50% in a year. Inflation remains muted regardless, prompting some speculation that officials may be massaging the figures. Other factors make that unlikely, but it's a rare opportunity for Beijing to open up – a little.

Washington casts longer shadow over Hong Kong

16 Sep 2019

Protests in the Chinese territory have rallied momentum for a proposal that scrutinises its special trade status and threatens sanctions. It’ll be hard to make the bill a priority in Congress, but President Trump could use it as leverage as he seeks a broader deal with Beijing.

Review: The first global corporation was the worst

6 Sep 2019

The East India Company was a 17th century London startup that conquered a subcontinent. William Dalrymple’s “The Anarchy” tracks its expansion, diversification, bailout and dissolution. The gruesome tale is relevant for business, and for nations with brash trading ambitions.

U.S. manufacturing slump is a self-inflicted wound

3 Sep 2019

American factory activity fell for the first time in three years in August, as President Trump’s trade war with China hit home. Fresh tariffs could compound the woes. At least manufacturing’s role in the economy has shrunk. But that underscores the futility of White House policy.

Japan is laggard in China-led scramble for Africa

30 Aug 2019

Tokyo wants its companies to pour more money into the continent, partly to counter Beijing’s influence. The U.S. is beefing up overseas finance for similar reasons. But with China’s $43 bln of Africa investments set to overtake America’s, rivals have a lot of ground to make up.

Uniqlo owner’s luxury premium merits a rethink

30 Aug 2019

A South Korean boycott of Japanese goods has hurt Fast Retailing. It's another foreign snag for the $63 bln seller of cheap cashmere. Boss Tadashi Yanai needs shoppers abroad, given weakness at home; setbacks leave its valuation, racing ahead of Zara owner Inditex, looking rich.

Bill Dudley blows the U.S. central bank’s cover

28 Aug 2019

The ex-New York Fed boss proposed monetary-policy resistance to Donald Trump’s trade war. To be fair, the president exploded norms first. Yet Dudley, though now a private citizen, has weakened the Fed's apolitical credentials. It paints Chair Jay Powell further into a corner.

Johnson’s Brexit manoeuvre brings crisis to a head

28 Aug 2019

Britain’s prime minister wants to cut the time available for parliament to thwart his planned Oct. 31 departure from the European Union. Lawmakers who want to prevent a chaotic “no-deal” Brexit will have to move quickly. The chances of a contentious election have increased.

Trump’s chaos theory of negotiation is a dead end

26 Aug 2019

The U.S. president says trade talks are back on with Beijing three days after escalating tariffs and calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping an “enemy.” Yet his erratic aims and tenor make it hard for counterparties to engage, as the G7 demonstrated. It’s no way to strike a good deal.

Trump containment talk hardens Beijing hardliners

26 Aug 2019

The president on Friday announced fresh tariffs and “ordered” American companies to explore relocation, saying he will make sure the U.S. economy stays larger than China’s. It feeds Beijing’s suspicions that the United States now seeks to keep China down, not negotiate with it.