Trade

Japan tilts at self-sufficiency windmill

24 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is subsidising firms to bring production back from China. Others may copy the idea. His $9 bln budget for the drive suggests the push is tentative. Reshoring has a bad track record. Duplicate chains and more inventory are the answer but will be costly.

Crisis paves way for South Korea’s New Deal

23 Apr 2020

President Moon Jae-in has long wanted to redirect the emphasis from exports to jobs and wages. As the pandemic’s economic toll mounts, his government has unveiled nearly $200 bln of relief measures. Fresh political support could help make the “income-led” growth plan a reality.

India erects low wall against Chinese money

20 Apr 2020

Direct investment from the People’s Republic will now require special approval, potentially slowing technology development. Capital-hungry India has left the door open to buyers from elsewhere, however. Chinese funds will keep flowing in, but only where they’re welcome.

Chancellor: What happens when globalisation fails?

2 Apr 2020

Covid-19 could prove fatal to a global trading system already under attack by Trump. History suggests that industrial production will be localised, labour’s share of wealth will rise and the decades-long bond bull market will likely come to an end. China is already a step ahead.

Hong Kong is ripe for more tycoon-led buyouts

23 Mar 2020

The Fung clan wants to take Li & Fung private. Online retail, the trade war and Covid-19 have battered the supply-chain group, making a $1.4 bln valuation look generous. As such opportunistic deals gather pace, investors in the Asian hub may start to demand more of buyers.

Trade war truce sabotaged by virus battle

20 Mar 2020

Removing tariffs could provide an estimated $170 bln boost to the ailing global economy, yet any rollbacks hardly seem imminent. The White House just slapped fresh duties on Airbus. Relations with China are also worsening. Such intransigence only makes a bad situation worse.

Investors’ Brazil dream becomes nightmare

13 Mar 2020

The former market darling’s currency has shed over 16% of its value versus the U.S. dollar this year, and its stock market is among the worst-performing in the world. Its trade position is weakening. And neither Brazil's central bank nor its president have good policy options.

Donald Trump is rising risk factor in virus battle

11 Mar 2020

The U.S. president’s address to the nation sparked more market panic. A $50 bln pledge for small businesses hit by Covid-19 is good, but his speech lacked public-health remedies, was full of mixed messages and focused on a Europe travel ban. He’s missing both diagnosis and cure.

Pandemics give rich selfish reason to aid the poor

6 Mar 2020

Developing countries are often worst hit and they undercut the containment efforts of wealthier ones. The spreading coronavirus knocks the case for globalisation but it promotes the need for cooperation on health. One idea to fund such assistance is a travel-linked pandemic tax.

Supply chain “tiger traps” demand better signposts

27 Feb 2020

The centuries-old business of lending to companies’ suppliers has become a 2.8 trln euro playground for financial and technological innovation. Tools that help firms to better use capital can flatter debt levels and exacerbate a liquidity crunch. Investors need more transparency.

Italy is petri dish for western virus control

24 Feb 2020

Authorities have locked down towns, shut schools and banned gatherings in the wealthy north to contain a coronavirus outbreak. That risks hurting growth in Europe’s industrial core. It’s also a test of how far democratic economies can push draconian emergency measures.

Rosneft’s sanctions yellow card won’t turn red

19 Feb 2020

The Russian oil giant’s trading subsidiary is the target of the toughest form of U.S. sanctions over Venezuela. Unlike 2018 curbs on Rusal and En+, it shouldn’t hurt Rosneft much. Tougher measures are unlikely given the unwanted surge they might trigger in oil prices.

Trump’s frenzied Huawei solution snarls Verizon

18 Feb 2020

The White House is keen to win the global 5G race after a slow start. One option is for Verizon to buy at least part of Ericsson, which may fit into the U.S. firm’s goals. But D.C. is grasping at several tactics and meddling is fraught with problems. It also doesn’t stop China.

Rich world is a safer distance from virus fallout

10 Feb 2020

Disruptions to Chinese demand and factories will hurt Japan, Australia and South Korea more than the United States, despite damage done to the likes of Apple and Starbucks. But worst hit will be poor nations that rely more on the People’s Republic for trade, tourists and funding.

Hadas: China virus upends development hierarchy

5 Feb 2020

For poor countries hoping to become richer, vaccines and clean water are the priority. Hygienic food chains and fast responses to contagion tend to come later. The rapid spread of the devastating coronavirus is the result of this ranking. Healthier growth may need to be slower.

EU offers Johnson a few crumbs in Brexit talks

3 Feb 2020

The bloc wants the United Kingdom to abide by its standards and state aid rules, and give up fishing rights, in return for a tariff-free trade deal. It’s hard to square with the prime minister’s goals. Yet Brussels has left some wiggle room. And Johnson has compromised before.

New China virus is bigger threat for world economy

27 Jan 2020

Growth rebounded quickly after the 2003 SARS outbreak. Stronger prevention measures this time are offset by the potentially more contagious coronavirus. China’s economy is also more fragile and accounts for a larger share of world growth. No wonder investors are jittery.

Hadas: Davos-economics faces political puzzles

24 Jan 2020

Most of the power brokers gathered in Switzerland assume powerful private sectors and ample international trade bring strong growth. So why is China tightening state control? Why is the UK stumbling towards less trade? Maybe Ethiopia can show the old recipe still works.

Donald Trump wins most insufferable title at Davos

21 Jan 2020

It’s a high bar, but the U.S. president is in an acutely braggadocious mood. He signed a China trade deal, stocks are at record highs and Iran’s top general is dead. Impeachment aside, the global elite will be even more annoyed by him because he has real things to brag about.

Trump’s trade war chases its own tail

16 Jan 2020

The U.S. president is hailing his agreement with China as a boost to farmers and manufacturing workers. It is, but only because they were the losers from trade conflict. Obama showed that following the rules doesn’t work; Trump has only shown that ripping them up doesn’t either.