Trade

China can turn the other cheek, for now

9 Jul 2020

The U.S. government slapped sanctions on Chinese officials for abuses of Muslim Uighurs, escalating tensions. Beijing may want to drop a trade deal in retaliation but patience is more useful. Xi Jinping will want threats in his back pocket following the November election.

Review: The callous roots of caffeine capitalism

3 Jul 2020

“Coffeeland” recounts Englishman James Hill’s rise from travelling salesman to king of El Salvador’s coffee industry. Though his farms brought wealth to some, they made the country less equal and heavily reliant on one resource. Many African nations face a similar dilemma today.

Corona Capital: U.S.-China fight, Canada downgrade

25 Jun 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Washington deploys sanctions over Hong Kong, adding to trade and Covid-19 tensions; and a double whammy of the coronavirus and low oil prices costs Canada one of its AAA ratings.

Silicon Valley VCs perform balancing act in China

18 Jun 2020

Covid-19 has boosted delivery, robotics and e-commerce technology. U.S. investors want to back Chinese startups capitalizing on those trends. But firms investing in the People’s Republic risk Washington's ire. The trick is to pair high potential ROIs with a low profile.

Vietnam can build on its good crisis

17 Jun 2020

The Southeast Asian economy checked Covid-19 and is set to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world this year. It’s already a manufacturing dynamo. As global trade slumps, Vietnam looks like a good destination for companies as they shift supply chains out of China.

Review: Trump’s fight with China will outlast him

12 Jun 2020

The U.S. president started the trade war but “Superpower Showdown” shows that anger with Beijing predates him. The account of the tariff row, which partly played out on Twitter, is familiar. Even so, it’s a warning that miscalculations on both sides can haunt long-term ties.

Corona Capital: ZoomInfo IPO, U.S. trade

4 Jun 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: ZoomInfo goes public with a big pop despite Covid-19; and America’s goods-trade deficit with Europe will test Washington’s mood.

U.S. sanctions on China are means without an end

29 May 2020

President Trump says he may penalize PRC officials linked to a new security law for Hong Kong. The first move of its kind would escalate tensions. Yet it probably won’t deter Beijing and could spur retaliation. Unlike tariffs, there's also no clear goal beyond punishment.

Hong Kong gets thrown under “make China pay” bus

27 May 2020

America’s top diplomat Mike Pompeo says the city is no longer autonomous. That decision initially hurts the financial hub more than it does Beijing. But an escalation in unrest would set the scene for worse economic pain for China, with a U.S. election raising the stakes.

Wall Street front opens wide in U.S.-China combat

21 May 2020

A political war of words, including over Covid-19, is intensifying and spurring more action. BlackRock’s Chinese investments are now targeted while attacks on U.S.-listed mainland companies threaten $1 trln in market value. It’ll be hard to avoid collateral damage in finance.

Debt hero role awaits China at rich price

21 May 2020

Beijing has deferred loan payments from poor countries, but with over $900 bln in IOUs from emerging markets, officials are hesitant to do more. China’s banking opacity deters cooperation. If it wants to seize leadership, it will have to come clean.

UK’s tough-guy act on tariffs has short shelf life

20 May 2020

Britain will hike duties on some EU imports if it fails to sign a trade deal with the region. That exerts pressure on Brussels, but would push up UK food prices at a difficult economic juncture. Prime Minister Boris Johnson may balk at hurting voters, and backpedal.

Wanted: Political heavyweight to save WTO

18 May 2020

The impending exit of Roberto Azevedo hurts the already-hobbled trade body. Resisting protectionism is a thankless task. Only a senior ex-politician, like Sweden’s Cecilia Malmström, will have the clout and diplomacy to allay Donald Trump’s China worries and save the institution.

U.S.-China trade escalation singles out hostages

15 May 2020

Further U.S. restrictions on Huawei, along with TSMC’s decision to build a $12 billion American chip plant, heighten tensions between D.C. and Beijing. Multinationals like Qualcomm and Apple became giants by building scale to serve a global market. They are now vulnerable, too.

Hapag-Lloyd sails into valuation Bermuda Triangle

14 May 2020

The German shipping giant’s shares have doubled in a month, to the bemusement of all including its CEO. A tiny 3.6% free-float may be part of the puzzle. But positive reasons for the valuation hike – brightening horizons, M&A fever or short-sellers caught short – are absent.

Emerging markets will see less index, more Rolodex

13 May 2020

Epic Federal Reserve action has stemmed an unprecedented flood of capital from developing countries. But ongoing virus concerns make it risky to invest by lazily following an index. Sensible fund managers will now need to appreciate the local nuances of the places they buy into.

Sino-Australian DNA sequenced by virus-test deal

11 May 2020

Fortescue’s chairman helped broker a controversial Canberra purchase of 10 mln Covid-19 kits from Chinese genomics giant BGI. It adds to diplomatic tensions over Huawei and the pandemic’s origins. And yet over $150 bln of bilateral trade probably will endure, and maybe even grow.

Deal sabotage offers Trump potent trade weapon

10 May 2020

The U.S. president is weighing tariffs to punish Beijing for Covid-19. Thwarting regional trade deals China hopes to sign this year would sting harder, as would buttressing the TPP pact. But that would require buttering up alienated allies, which is not Trump’s forte.

China’s soft power will be hardened by the virus

8 May 2020

Even before Covid-19 emerged in Wuhan, partners were rethinking economic and diplomatic ties. Rising foreign criticism is sharpening attitudes in China. And Western disarray is emboldening Beijing. Restraining China’s influence will be the geopolitical struggle of the decade.

Supply chains’ tectonic shift will get viral jolt

7 May 2020

Tariffs, automation and climate change had businesses rethinking how best to secure their goods even before Covid-19. The pandemic has highlighted global supply chains’ vulnerability to lockdowns. Countries and companies alike will increasingly set their sights nearer home.