Trade

The Exchange: Terra incognita

13 Oct 2020

The U.S. faces more uncertainty as 2020 ends, including inflation, antitrust enforcement, and how the next president handles taxes, trade and the post-virus economy. So says Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. He argues tackling inequality should be a priority.

Guest view: Ways to defuse currency wars

13 Oct 2020

Weak economic activity is giving countries an incentive to use exchange rates to win a competitive edge in trade. Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury official, argues that the world’s biggest economy is no innocent bystander this time round and explains how to calm tensions.

Angst-ridden end to 2020 is written into options

23 Sep 2020

As if Covid-19 hadn’t sparked enough market gyrations, the next three months bring U.S. elections, tense UK-EU trade talks, and more. Central bankers are keeping bonds on a tight leash so jitters will be channelled into currencies. That is already showing up in FX option prices.

Corona Capital: Playboy, Mondelez

21 Sep 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: The owner of perhaps the most famous adult magazine is hoping a SPAC can give it a new lease on life; Mondelez wants to expand its range of healthy snacks – but they’re not always the best money spinners.

Rio Tinto rebellion sets new ESG bar

11 Sep 2020

CEO J-S Jacques and two deputies will step down after an outcry over the miner's destruction of Aboriginal heritage sites. Aussie shareholders led a charge that may inspire other socially conscious investors. Bosses and boards hiding behind strong returns have been given notice.

U.S. climate report’s obviousness is its strength

9 Sep 2020

A CFTC-led study on the financial risks from global warming isn't revelatory. Instead, it rehearses the dangers and suggests solutions already common in Europe and elsewhere. Backing from Wall Street, Big Agriculture and Big Oil helps point to a more consistent response.

China’s bad financial habits crack Baccarat

9 Sep 2020

The 256-year-old French crystal maker is under court administration after its owner, a cash-strapped Hong Kong wealth manager, defaulted on private loans used to acquire it, prompting a court battle. It’s safer to sell luxury goods to Chinese consumers than brands to China Inc.

Corona Capital: Vaccine politics, Peloton

8 Sep 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Pharma firms like Merck and Pfizer are putting long-term profit first by promising to wait for full approvals for Covid-19 treatments; Peloton cycles towards more profit by cutting the price of its high-cost bikes.

SMIC selloff downplays U.S.-China trade friction

8 Sep 2020

The Hong Kong shares of the chipmaker plunged 23% on news that the White House might blacklist it. The immediate financial hit looks manageable, but long-term prospects are darkening. SMIC's still-frothy valuation hints at more volatility for the company and its peers.

Guest view: Crisis demands reformer at WTO helm

27 Aug 2020

Covid-19 has exposed the dangers of connectedness without cooperation, argues Paul Polman, the former Unilever CEO. Recruiting a new director general with strong political skills, and who is unafraid of change, can ensure the WTO helps reverse the world’s inward turn.

Guest view: Freeing Abenomics from Abe

26 Aug 2020

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s return to hospital has raised concerns about a change of power. His signature economic policy fell short even before the pandemic. A strong successor could reinvent it, but that seems unlikely, argues ex-BOJ policy board member Sayuri Shirai.

Ireland’s Golfgate can reveal a more responsive EU

24 Aug 2020

The Irish public are outraged about an elite golf jolly that flouted Covid-19 restrictions. One minister has resigned and European Commissioner Phil Hogan is under severe pressure. A swift departure would help Brussels look less like a technocratic refuge from popular politics.

U.S.-China tech spat is less costly than tariffs

14 Aug 2020

The two nations will review their trade deal as the White House refocuses on a purge of Chinese apps. The economic damage is more limited than tariffs, which upended companies and hurt consumers on both sides. Containing the trade fight is more important than saving TikTok.

Corona Capital: College mergers, UK property funds

3 Aug 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: M&A goes to the University of Arizona; Britain’s financial watchdog considers stopping property fund withdrawals.

Hadas: Globalisation is down but not out

23 Jul 2020

Covid-19 has infected world trade and rising nationalism threatens cross-border harmony. Still, the five-century-old trend towards one world economy has survived worse. Migration, the shared thirst for knowledge and the profit motive will likely bring a resurgence in a few years.

Corona Capital: LatAm pensions, Activism

23 Jul 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Pension reform in Mexico and Chile gets a coronavirus makeover; UK chief executives catch a break during lockdown as the number of activist campaigns collapses.

“America First” mantra is here to stay

22 Jul 2020

President Donald Trump says election rival Joe Biden’s $700 bln "Buy American" plan is policy plagiarism. Both are running partly as economic nationalists. Biden would repair international relations, but he's no fan of globalized supply chains or unfettered trade.

Corona Capital: Thanksgiving shopping, Airlines

22 Jul 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Walmart gives thanks to employees; Airlines’ relative winners emerge.

Corona Capital: Movies, Basketball, Tech optimism

21 Jul 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Warner Bros’ indefinite delay of its blockbuster movie “Tenet” spells bad news for the industry; healthy players and good social-media stats give the NBA a boost; Silicon Valley shows a hint of pessimism.

Review: Poking China’s ironclad asset bubbles

10 Jul 2020

Sceptics have predicted the financial implosion of the People’s Republic for years. In “China: The Bubble that Never Pops”, Tom Orlik argues it may never happen. It’s a useful antidote to free-market complacency. Beijing’s competitive threat will not go away on its own.