Trade

India has an opportunity to mend U.S. trade ties

4 Mar 2021

President Joe Biden’s aides reviewing India’s loss of preferential trade may face similar spats on technology and medical devices as their predecessors. Patience is waning though. Small gives by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could boost confidence and help to avoid more tariffs.

Joe Biden’s best weapon against China is teamwork

23 Feb 2021

The new administration is toning down the rhetoric but is nevertheless taking a tough line on Beijing. Less capricious trade policies and a willingness to work with Western allies may make the approach more effective than Donald Trump’s attempts to rein in the People’s Republic.

Hidden U.S.-China stakes become passive-aggressive

27 Jan 2021

Despite geopolitical tension, investors from the two countries own securities in each other worth some $3.3 trln, or double official sums, new research estimates. A shift from foreign direct investment to tradeable stocks and bonds portends a more volatile financial relationship.

Brexit legacy will clip sterling’s wings

21 Jan 2021

The currency hit an eight-month high against the euro. Vaccine rollouts, on which GDP rebounds depend, are more advanced in UK than many countries. But non-tariff barriers are hindering trade with the EU, which may hold back growth. That will limit the pound’s scope to fly.

Taiwan’s tech edge will cushion U.S. policy tumult

14 Jan 2021

TSMC, the $560 bln chipmaking powerhouse, showcases the island's clout in supply chains, semiconductors, 5G and more. That bodes well for bilateral trade and investment flows. Closer economic ties should help ease fears of potential changes in Washington’s approach to Taipei.

Urge to purge 2020 from memory should be resisted

4 Jan 2021

Nearly everything that could go wrong did. The pandemic threw plans – and predictions – out the window. As the world emerges and maybe slingshots into a Roaring Twenties rebound, old appetites will return. But the divisions Covid-19 exposed in our societies can't be forgotten.

Brexit throws down electric gauntlet to UK cars

4 Jan 2021

Britain’s motor industry has escaped European Union tariffs that would have hobbled half its output. But to meet export rules on low-carbon vehicles by 2024, Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs to ramp up battery output. Convincing groups like Nissan and BMW to stay will be tough.

Trade feuds will take on a new, green hue

31 Dec 2020

Slapping tariffs on countries out of the blue isn’t Joe Biden’s style. But the U.S. president-elect may place more emphasis on environmental standards in commerce negotiations. While that would rile Beijing, America will have European backers if Biden chooses to take a stand.

A Biden-Xi reboot will be frosty but mostly honest

29 Dec 2020

The two leaders have scant tinder with which to warm frozen ties in 2021. China-bashing is a bipartisan sport in America. Xi let nationalist trolls capture his diplomatic corps. But with status quo delusions stripped away, stabilising the economic relationship is within reach.

Christmas Eve Brexit deal is second-worst outcome

24 Dec 2020

The UK’s last-gasp agreement with the European Union avoids painful tariffs and a dangerous rupture in relations. Yet trade flows remain hostage to diverging standards. While the costs of exiting the single market will now become clear, the benefits of independence remain vague.

Ominous iron ore seam opens in Aussie trade row

18 Dec 2020

Chinese state buyers are griping about how the steel ingredient is priced as officials Down Under debate an export tax. Beijing already has targeted wine and other imports. The idea that miners BHP and Rio might get dragged into the spat can no longer be discounted.

Chinese Icarus escapes Ingram Micro unsinged

10 Dec 2020

HNA aggressively acquired overseas assets between 2015 and 2017, including hotels and even a stake in Deutsche Bank. The $7 bln purchase of the U.S. electronics distributor epitomized the binge, now being unwound. A sale at a higher price shows stable businesses retain value.

Corona Capital: U.S. imports

8 Dec 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. consumers’ demand for products used at home help boost China’s shipments.

Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday

30 Nov 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.

Trump could box Biden into a corner on China

25 Nov 2020

The U.S. president’s mainland-bashing will go on until he steps down. He could impose sanctions on financial firms linked to a Hong Kong blacklist, expand a ban on investment or even restart a trade war. His successor would be left with little room to leave his own mark.

Subpar Asian trade deal shines in splintered world

16 Nov 2020

Fifteen nations accounting for 30% of global GDP will slash tariffs and ease the movement of goods in the region. India’s absence is among the disappointments of the long-awaited pact. Even modest progress counts for a lot considering the sad state of U.S. and UK trade affairs.

WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism

9 Nov 2020

The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.

Viewsroom: What Biden bodes for money and markets

7 Nov 2020

Without a clear Senate majority, the former vice president will need to tack to the center when he occupies the White House. For Wall Street that’s a bullet dodged. For other industries, it’s a mixed bag. For multilateral institutions, it’s an improvement from Donald Trump.

U.S. farm aid bonanza is free market nightmare

2 Nov 2020

Farmers are receiving a record $50 billion in federal aid this year. Covid-19, trade and politics are partly to blame, but the bigger problem is too many uncompetitive farms. More handouts or price controls would further distort markets. Governments could help more by doing less.

Cox: China addiction looms as big corporate risk

22 Oct 2020

The People’s Republic has subdued Covid-19 while the West struggles. Its GDP grew 4.9% last quarter as consumers resumed consuming. From Ford to Durex, Hermès to Unilever, multinationals are developing a Chinese demand dependency that could backfire politically and financially.