The Big View

How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine

26 Feb 2024

Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.

Strategic clarity fuels US oil giants’ M&A spree

23 Feb 2024

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are buying up rival drillers on expectations that demand for crude will still be robust in 2050. European rivals like Shell are less bullish about oil, but reluctant to pile headlong into green energy. That helps explain the transatlantic valuation gap.

Higher rates insidiously creep into the boardroom

22 Feb 2024

Stock prices have been on a tear, in anticipation of the Fed reversing its policy. The exuberance ignores longer-term consequences of growing interest expenses. To pay them, many companies will have to cut back elsewhere. Share buybacks, capex and M&A look especially vulnerable.

Alibaba is the ultimate contrarian China bet

21 Feb 2024

The $188 bln e-commerce group was once emblematic of the country’s growth and tech innovation. But over-expansion, regulatory crackdowns, and slowing consumption are forcing CEO Eddie Wu to perform a hard reset. Winning back investors requires Beijing to correct course too.

Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg

20 Feb 2024

War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.

Joe Biden 2.0 offers chance at less global tension

19 Feb 2024

In a second term, the US president might preside over less fractious geopolitics and trade friction. He also could make a fresh push to fight climate change. American allies shouldn’t get their hopes up, though; such an agenda would face obstacles at home and abroad.

Banks win hollow victory over would-be disrupters

16 Feb 2024

Supermarket giant Tesco’s ditched effort to build a UK retail bank follows similar abortive attempts by telecom groups and fintech startups. Regulation and rising technology costs are partly to blame. But banks’ persistent poor returns are the most effective barrier to entry.

US real estate is a micro-drama set to turn macro

15 Feb 2024

So far, loans on isolated buildings by individual banks and funds have gone bad. As mortgages worth $1.5 trln come due in the next two years, strains will also spread from offices to apartment blocks. A correction is inevitable, but its impact can still be contained.

Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers

14 Feb 2024

Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.

US markets grapple with mysterious contradictions

13 Feb 2024

The S&P 500 Index hit new heights, led by tech stocks. At the same time, derivatives traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates. The latter will not happen without a recession. One of the camps is destined to be wrong. Equity investors should root for slower rate cuts.

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

Meta enters the dividend multiverse of madness

8 Feb 2024

The first payout from Facebook’s owner is a small $5 bln sign of financial restraint. Benefits from regularly returning cash to shareholders, however, are about as tangible as the metaverse. Zeal for dividends simply perpetuates inefficiency and irrationality in markets.

A pinch of salt could unsettle electric-car order

7 Feb 2024

Carmakers Stellantis and BYD are betting on sodium-based batteries. The cells’ bulk and need for more frequent charging mean they may struggle to drive lithium tech off the road. But affordability and the prospect of loosening China’s grip on the industry will spur adoption.

EU ‘Italian Job’ starts with winning over citizens

6 Feb 2024

Former premiers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta are studying how to boost the bloc’s competitiveness. Europe’s single market needs to adapt to global shifts in trade, energy, and industrial policy. But any overhaul will depend on persuading voters that the EU benefits them, too.

Sovereign debt workouts need knocking into shape

5 Feb 2024

Countries such as Zambia are twisting in the wind because of long delays in restructuring their debts. It is harder to get all creditors to agree now that China is a big lender. A more integrated approach that better manages laggard lenders could lead to swifter results.

Unilever is test case for ‘edible stranded assets’

2 Feb 2024

The $123 bln consumer goods group relies on brands that look vulnerable to sugar taxes and changing eating habits. Like oil majors facing lower demand, Unilever and others like Nestlé may have to write down the value of these assets. Unfortunately, the problem defies easy fixes.

American unions can’t bargain with the inevitable

1 Feb 2024

Workers in industries from coffee to movies rose up in 2023, but long-term trends are working against organized labor. Some, like auto workers, are a threat to employers. But even there, a combination of legal and societal shifts make for a less-united future.

Netflix rivals can survive streaming squid game

31 Jan 2024

Cost savings and price hikes are reshaping the largely unprofitable industry. Hulu, Max, Peacock and others also have more money to play for beyond the $80 bln being spent by US cord-cutting laggards. Ads, bundles, sports and beyond will help build some killer business models.

Close the Volcker playbook and open Greenspan’s

30 Jan 2024

Fed Chair Jay Powell wisely embraced Paul Volcker’s inflation-fighting approach from the early 1980s and quickly raised borrowing costs. With price pressures abating, it’s time to change tactics. Leaning into Alan Greenspan’s tactical 1995 interest rate cuts makes more sense now.