The Big View

How one firm made child’s play of tricky M&A games

24 Apr 2024

Imagine buying a company without tedious negotiations, rival bids or pricey premiums. A Saudi investor pulled it off by snapping up enough shares to gain control of US retailer The Children’s Place. The feat will be hard to replicate, but there’s now a model for deal masterminds.

World economy’s star athlete may run out of puff

23 Apr 2024

The IMF crowned the United States as the champion of global growth at last week's summit. A predicted rise in GDP of 2.7% this year is welcome as Europe and China struggle. But high debt and hard-to-repeat gains in productivity and the workforce will limit American staying power.

What to do about the EU’s relative decline

22 Apr 2024

The European Union will become marginalised if it continues to shrink compared with other regions. Two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, are coming up with remedies. But anxious leaders may lack the will to drink the necessary medicine.

Shell’s value gap is more strategy than geography

19 Apr 2024

CEO Wael Sawan may shift the $230 bln UK oil giant’s listing to New York if a discount to rivals like Exxon Mobil persists beyond 2025. But Shell’s shifting priorities, slower growth, and unreliable dividends weigh on its valuation. Those factors defy a superficial fix.

Wells Fargo has worn its dunce cap long enough

18 Apr 2024

In 2018, the US bank was banned from growing beyond $2 trln in assets as punishment for its flagrant customer abuses. Even if warranted, the Fed’s decision has led to market distortions. It’s time to scrap the limit, explain why it remains, or – if the rot persists – get tougher.

Guess what: Boeing can be spelled without G and E

17 Apr 2024

Instead of investing in a new model, the 737-maker embraced the gospel of Jack Welch and returned $60 bln to shareholders over a decade. McDonnell Douglas suffered a similar fate before infusing Boeing with GE’s toxic ethos. It’s not too late to excise it and build another plane.

Look out for a return of the US bond rollercoaster

16 Apr 2024

As short-term interest rates spiked, longer-term borrowing costs have lagged. The yield on three-month US Treasury bonds has exceeded the return on 10-year securities for 76 weeks, a near record. If this anomaly unwinds, falling bond prices could hurt fund managers and Uncle Sam.

Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy

15 Apr 2024

The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.

Market forces knock ominously on US realtors’ door

12 Apr 2024

Home buyers will soon find it easier to negotiate fees they pay to 1.5 mln agents – a move that might have happened earlier in a less distorted market. Some brokers will earn more. But the reforms are likely to shrink the fee pool, which is tricky for ancillary firms like Zillow.

How Patrick Drahi can clamber out of his debt hole

11 Apr 2024

The tycoon’s Altice telecom empire is straining under $60 bln of borrowings, and creditors of its French unit are gunning for a fight. Yet loose bond terms, and the debt’s low trading prices, lend Drahi an escape route. He just needs to hope investors have short memories.

India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi

10 Apr 2024

The prime minister is hot favourite to secure a third term, and to lead the country into another decade of economic expansion. Yet projections of 6%-plus annual GDP growth are below the country’s own track record. And hitting the mark does not depend on one man.

Airbus obsessives have a shaky grasp of history

9 Apr 2024

The $140 bln pan-European group is flying high as rival Boeing stutters. Now carmakers and others are wondering if similar collaboration could help them face down overseas competitors. But Airbus’s idiosyncrasies and convoluted road to success make copycat plans pie-in-the-sky.

Next Chinese trade war could benefit the planet

8 Apr 2024

As Beijing floods the world with cheap green goods, the West will put up trade barriers. That will delay the energy transition in the United States and EU. But the glut of EVs, solar panels and the like will speed it up in China and much of the Global South.

Google will struggle with Apple-generated AI query

5 Apr 2024

Artificial intelligence presents the first serious threat to the search engine’s 25-year dominance. Parent Alphabet has the money and tech nous to fend off rivals. The bigger financial risk is its $120 bln relationship with the iPhone maker as trustbusters try to pry them apart.

Ben & Jerry’s rocky ESG road bucks vanilla trends

4 Apr 2024

The purpose-driven ice cream brand is being scooped out of Unilever as corporate activism increasingly invites controversy. And yet the maker of flavors like Empower Mint has grown faster than its parent. Social values, especially when authentic, can mix well with financial aims.

TSMC’s most complex engineering task is itself

3 Apr 2024

The $625 bln chipmaker has built a monopoly in advanced semiconductors by staying in Taiwan. Now it’s expanding abroad, spurred by subsidies and US-China tensions. Despite higher costs, it can generate decent returns. The bigger challenge will be keeping its technological edge.

Profitability is next sacrifice at inflation altar

2 Apr 2024

Central bankers want LVMH, Pepsi and others to pay higher wages without raising prices. Bottom lines in the euro zone already have dipped to 40% of output, the lowest rate since 2020, and Big Tech accounts for most US margin growth. CEOs and investors can expect leaner times.

Shein’s fast fashion comes with fast-finance risks

28 Mar 2024

Influencers and US shoppers love the online retailer, but the one product that’s not yet for sale is the company’s shares. If all goes very right, a $200 bln valuation in a mooted IPO isn’t unthinkable. Yet Shein’s business model may shift as quickly as its cut-price clothing.

LNG angst seeps from consumers to producers

27 Mar 2024

A few years ago, supplies of liquefied natural gas were scarce and prices sky-high. Extra capacity arriving this decade means there could soon be a price-sapping glut. Big suppliers like Qatar and Shell have long-term contracts that can ease the pain, but only up to a point.

Lower taxes would cripple Europe’s growth

26 Mar 2024

The bloc needs new public investment of about 3% of GDP for the green transition, defence, infrastructure, education and health. High debt loads limit borrowing and spending cuts hurt the economy. Instead of pledging lower levies, governments have to raise them.