The $5 trln AI boom could both succeed and fizzle 21 May 2024 Tech giants are making hefty investments in artificial intelligence in the hope of gigantic future profits while enjoying frothy valuations. Yet past frenzies in railways and telecom show capital-intensive innovations can change the world while leaving investors short-changed.
German consumer is poor substitute for China trade 21 May 2024 Consumption is up but won’t be enough to lift the country out of its funk, with growth of just 0.2% this year. Exports to the People’s Republic are threatened by worsening relations between Brussels and Beijing. Meanwhile a split Berlin government looks unable to launch reforms.
Pricey stocks overlook the world’s troubles 19 May 2024 Trade tension between the US and China will dampen growth, while rising defence spending means higher taxes and lower profits. Equity markets, now at record highs on both sides of the Atlantic, aren’t cheap. Add in these headwinds and investors have more downside than upside.
Private credit wonder drug works in limited dose 17 May 2024 The quantity of loans channelled directly to companies by funds has exploded to more than $2 trln. The economic benefits of diversified lending just about make up for the risks. The challenge is making sure financial innovation does not starve banks to death.
Japan’s value push will turn into a shove 16 May 2024 Shareholder meetings next month will help gauge progress in the official campaign to boost corporate performance. Toyota, SoftBank and Fast Retailing have not signed up. Given the importance of ensuring resilience in the $4.2 trln economy, Tokyo is likely to apply more pressure.
Bank treasurers hold keys to an investor mystery 15 May 2024 Executives who manage lenders’ exposure to interest-rate swings are more important than ever. But it’s tough for shareholders to pick their way through the complex hedging programmes of $570 bln JPMorgan and its peers, adding volatility to their share prices.
Memo to McKinsey: Avoiding Arthur Andersen’s fate 14 May 2024 After coughing up $1 bln for opioid-related settlements, the elite consultant may face criminal charges, too. There are notable differences from when a 2002 US indictment killed the auditing giant. But the looming existential threat increases the likelihood of costly concessions.
The world can survive a strong dollar – for now 13 May 2024 The greenback has gained 17% against major currencies in three years. Other countries avoided repeating past crises through better fiscal policies and less foreign borrowing. But in the long run a mighty buck will put economies under stress, especially in emerging markets.
Economic hard landing is delayed but not cancelled 10 May 2024 It’s two years since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, yet economic growth has picked up and stocks have hit new highs. There are several reasons why the US economy is less responsive to tighter monetary policy. But it cannot avoid the effects indefinitely.
New ASML CEO’s job is harder than it might look 9 May 2024 The $360 bln Dutch firm is the sole maker of machines that produce the most advanced chips for Intel and TSMC. New boss Christophe Fouquet effectively runs a monopoly. But he still faces risks from staff retention, China-US spats, and as-yet-opaque risks to ASML’s domination.
Securitization limbers up for the oddball Olympics 8 May 2024 The race is on to find esoteric assets that can be sliced, diced and sold to investors. Taco Bell receipts, IP addresses and Picassos have so far cleared the bar. While many buyers of the $150 bln-plus in unusual deals will recoup their gold, some may overstretch.
Europe has little to fear as ECB and Fed part ways 7 May 2024 The European Central Bank is set to cut rates before the US Federal Reserve for the first time in its history. Hardliners warn that will weaken the euro and feed inflation. But the effects are likely to be muted. Besides, a lower currency helps exports more than it hurts imports.
BHP bombshell puts South African mining in a hole 6 May 2024 The Australian miner’s $39 bln tilt at Anglo American highlights the decline of the country’s once-mighty industry. Blocking the deal would send an even worse signal about South Africa as an investment destination. Pretoria would do better to push for a more acceptable outcome.
Inditex’s golden era is coming to an end 3 May 2024 Asian disruptor Shein is threatening the $142 bln Zara owner’s fast-fashion crown with ultra-cheap wares. Dismissing the risk may threaten its market share. To protect the Spanish giant’s business, CEO Óscar García Maceiras has plenty of cash but no obvious M&A solution.
Shrunken Vodafone has narrow path to growth 2 May 2024 The $24 bln telco’s stock is down since CEO Margherita Della Valle sold the slow-growing Spanish and Italian units. Outside core and mature UK and German markets, hopes for growth rest on corporate clients and Africa. That may not be enough to close Vodafone’s valuation gap.
Hurricanes threaten to stir perfect economic storm 1 May 2024 Warmer oceans portend an unusually fierce 2024 season in the Atlantic, with two states already propping up their home insurance systems. The nightmare scenario is $200 bln of losses. Insolvencies would be a problem, but not as big as exorbitant premiums and lower property values.
Von der Leyen’s China plan is all bark and no bite 30 Apr 2024 To keep her job atop the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen will talk tough but wield a small stick towards Beijing. Open supply lines from the People’s Republic are key to Europe’s economic well-being. Brussels’ rhetoric will likely be harsher than sanctions and tariffs.
Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough 29 Apr 2024 The United States last week cleared a vital aid package, but Kyiv still needs a medium-term funding plan to withstand Russia’s onslaught. Mobilising Moscow’s $320 bln of frozen central bank assets to provide compensation for war damages should be central to this.
CVC’s Darwinian pay policy puts rivals on the spot 26 Apr 2024 The buyout shop, which manages $200 bln, allocates 40% of fund profits to staff on a deal-by-deal basis, rather than pooling the spoils. Rivals say it hurts teamwork, but CVC’s returns suggest it works. If the newly public firm keeps out-raising peers, others may follow suit.
Vote no to bashing proxy advisers 25 Apr 2024 Corporate leaders at JPMorgan and AstraZeneca bridle when ISS and Glass Lewis criticize their governance. No wonder: Some high-stakes shareholder votes this year will be uncomfortable for feather-bedded bosses. Proxy firms are problematic, but they do more good than harm.