The Big View

Swarming investor gnats circle too widely

6 Mar 2024

New US rules have started helping smaller fund managers make a mark. They’re increasingly needling boards and stinging CEOs. When they flit around bigger targets such as Disney and Crown Castle, however, they’re easily swatted away and become a nuisance for larger activists.

Japan faces a reckoning with its zombie companies

5 Mar 2024

Big firms are ready for the onset of higher wages and the end of negative rates. Smaller rivals, which employ 60% of workers, risk being crushed. One in six already struggles to cover interest payments. If too many fail, they can derail confidence and the economic recovery.

China’s financial clout will be hard to reverse

4 Mar 2024

Exports from the People’s Republic upended the world economy. Its $4.3 trln hoard of foreign assets is doing the same for global finance. As with trade, winding back the clock will not work. Multilateral problems require multilateral solutions.

European telcos’ new deal hopes face reality check

1 Mar 2024

Executives gathered in Barcelona this week to plead for lighter regulation, cheaper spectrum and some financial help. Policymakers are unlikely to agree. Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and others will have to convince investors that future growth requires more investment today.

Banks’ hot new trade could burn others, for once

29 Feb 2024

So-called synthetic risk transfers offer a Houdini-like way of loosening capital handcuffs. While best suited to the biggest lenders, it could also help smaller rivals burdened by shaky real-estate bets. The danger to banks is minimal; investors need to read the small print.

Shenzhen offers glimpse of China’s housing future

28 Feb 2024

The tech hub’s plan to put 60% of its 18 mln residents in subsidised homes answers President Xi Jinping’s call for a “new development model” prioritising affordability. The state is reclaiming a lead role in the property market of the world’s second-largest economy, at huge cost.

A plot twist threatens Jay Powell’s artful script

27 Feb 2024

Higher borrowing costs are helping achieve the Fed’s 2% inflation target without a recession, but US wages and consumer spending tell a different tale. The upward price pressure augurs elevated interest rates for longer. To ensure a happy ending may require revising the story.

How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine

26 Feb 2024

Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.

Strategic clarity fuels US oil giants’ M&A spree

23 Feb 2024

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are buying up rival drillers on expectations that demand for crude will still be robust in 2050. European rivals like Shell are less bullish about oil, but reluctant to pile headlong into green energy. That helps explain the transatlantic valuation gap.

Higher rates insidiously creep into the boardroom

22 Feb 2024

Stock prices have been on a tear, in anticipation of the Fed reversing its policy. The exuberance ignores longer-term consequences of growing interest expenses. To pay them, many companies will have to cut back elsewhere. Share buybacks, capex and M&A look especially vulnerable.

Alibaba is the ultimate contrarian China bet

21 Feb 2024

The $188 bln e-commerce group was once emblematic of the country’s growth and tech innovation. But over-expansion, regulatory crackdowns, and slowing consumption are forcing CEO Eddie Wu to perform a hard reset. Winning back investors requires Beijing to correct course too.

Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg

20 Feb 2024

War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.

Joe Biden 2.0 offers chance at less global tension

19 Feb 2024

In a second term, the US president might preside over less fractious geopolitics and trade friction. He also could make a fresh push to fight climate change. American allies shouldn’t get their hopes up, though; such an agenda would face obstacles at home and abroad.

Banks win hollow victory over would-be disrupters

16 Feb 2024

Supermarket giant Tesco’s ditched effort to build a UK retail bank follows similar abortive attempts by telecom groups and fintech startups. Regulation and rising technology costs are partly to blame. But banks’ persistent poor returns are the most effective barrier to entry.

US real estate is a micro-drama set to turn macro

15 Feb 2024

So far, loans on isolated buildings by individual banks and funds have gone bad. As mortgages worth $1.5 trln come due in the next two years, strains will also spread from offices to apartment blocks. A correction is inevitable, but its impact can still be contained.

Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers

14 Feb 2024

Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.

US markets grapple with mysterious contradictions

13 Feb 2024

The S&P 500 Index hit new heights, led by tech stocks. At the same time, derivatives traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates. The latter will not happen without a recession. One of the camps is destined to be wrong. Equity investors should root for slower rate cuts.

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

Meta enters the dividend multiverse of madness

8 Feb 2024

The first payout from Facebook’s owner is a small $5 bln sign of financial restraint. Benefits from regularly returning cash to shareholders, however, are about as tangible as the metaverse. Zeal for dividends simply perpetuates inefficiency and irrationality in markets.