The Big View

India starts resembling China in unflattering ways

19 Dec 2024

Growth is slowing and allegations of interference in the West’s affairs are rising. Part of the narrative weighing on the world’s second-largest economy is applicable to its fifth largest. Even if similarities are exaggerated, the connection poses a threat to India’s moment.

Donald Trump will meet his match in bond markets

18 Dec 2024

The president-elect’s bullying and bluster may steamroll any political resistance to tax cuts and tariff hikes. Like many world leaders before him, though, he’s about to feel the punch that debt buyers pack. They’ll beat back an inflationary agenda that imperils US finances.

Obesity giants will begin $80 bln M&A face-off

17 Dec 2024

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will need to invest the war chests they are amassing from sales of weight-loss drugs. They could snap up rivals like Zealand Pharma, or forge into new areas, say by buying autoimmune player Argenx. Pressure to do deals raises the risk of overpaying.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

AI models’ slowdown spells end of gold rush era

13 Dec 2024

Rapid progress from building bigger systems set off a dash for data centers and chips. But progress may be slowing. Microsoft and Alphabet face less existential pressure but also new competitors, putting a question mark over the $8 trln rise in Big Tech’s market value since 2022.

India needs more, not fewer, powerful tycoons

12 Dec 2024

US charges against Gautam Adani expose the country’s reliance on too few industrialists to meet its strategic goals. Rather than prompting a breakup of conglomerates, the saga may nudge the government to share the spoils of the $4 trln economy with a bigger group of chosen ones.

Buyout barons’ Europe bargain hunt will intensify

11 Dec 2024

Preqin data shows that funds focusing on the region are outperforming North American ones, helped in part by a 10% valuation discount on local deals. The gap may grow as US stocks get more expensive. But for Europe it’s a sign of corporate weakness, rather than strength.

Golden visas are a leaden answer to economic needs

10 Dec 2024

Hungary is the latest country to launch a residency-by-investment scheme. Such plans appeal to rich foreigners. But they add less than 0.5% to GDP, inflate property prices and irk locals. As geopolitical risks spur demand, governments will have to either charge more or nix them.

Putin faces hard choices if Ukraine war drags on

9 Dec 2024

Though Russia can probably keep fighting for a long time, the costs will mount – especially if inflation rises or the oil price falls. A credible Western plan to support Kyiv could bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and help secure a decent ceasefire.

US market juggernaut poses top risk for 2025

6 Dec 2024

After a second year of world-beating returns, stocks listed in the United States account for 67% of global equity markets. Outperformance sucks in more capital and companies. Though it’s a long-term trend, US valuations seem high. A reversal would leave few investors unscathed.

Japan’s virtuous M&A circle starts with 7-Eleven

5 Dec 2024

The battle for control of $45 bln convenience store owner Seven & i is being cheered in Tokyo. It’s evidence of progress in the drive to improve efficiencies in the world’s third-largest economy. It could also be a sign of what’s to come if officials make the right next moves.

UK is now risky lab rat for rich tax-perk reform

4 Dec 2024

Thousands of Britain-based families look to have moved to the UAE. One key driver is the abolition of ‘non-dom’ rules that in 2022 shielded 37,800 residents’ offshore cash from tax. The UK may be right that the reform will raise revenue – but it’s on the hook if it doesn’t.

Masa Son risks overcompensating for his AI misses

3 Dec 2024

The SoftBank founder sold Nvidia too early and seems late to the party with his recent OpenAI investments. Now, he may be planning to invest $9 bln a year in artificial intelligence. The risk for the billionaire’s shareholders is that he acts recklessly to make up for lost time.

Why Mexico’s global trade sweet spot may turn sour

2 Dec 2024

The country has hugely benefitted from the 'nearshoring' trend, and last year surpassed China with $475 bln of US goods exports. President-elect Donald Trump’s 25% tariff plan would undermine that progress. And the new Mexican government has little room to soften the blow.

European pharma’s growth prescription: pivot to US

28 Nov 2024

Novartis, Novo Nordisk and regional rivals lost $86 bln in value over concerns about tariffs and other possible measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Stateside M&A and manufacturing moves could ease the pain and boost revenue. But hopping across the pond will mean paying up.

Indian business may learn wrong lesson from Adani

27 Nov 2024

US corruption charges against tycoon Gautam Adani have cast a shadow over Narendra Modi’s war on graft. The prime minister has made progress. But rather than spurring a cleanup in the $4 trln economy, the saga might just make its capitalists warier of tapping global markets.

Mapping the way for Elon Musk’s efficiency drive

26 Nov 2024

Tesla’s CEO has touted the idea of slashing $2 trln from the bureaucracy, a fanciful figure that exceeds optional budget items and threatens to ape the worst of UK and Argentine austerity. There may be a tortuous path to cut $500 bln, but improving services is a far better route.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

There are few good ways out of China’s stock slump

21 Nov 2024

Despite a recent bounce driven by stimulus hopes, the country’s benchmark equity index is down by nearly a third in the past three-and-a-half years. Though valuations look cheap, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to even worse outcomes for investors.

Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes

20 Nov 2024

US consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, helping President-elect Donald Trump win the White House. His policies, though, may stoke inflation. Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar like a hot economy. But a rising deficit could upset debt investors and hit the current market stars.