Tech

Google antitrust roulette puts $600 bln at stake

9 Oct 2024

US competition cops presented a grab bag of possible remedies, including breaking up the $2 trln tech giant, after it was ruled a monopoly. Its dominance may soften the blow. But with search revenue and more at risk, the worst-case hit could top a quarter of Google’s value.

Neither precedent nor Trump can save Big Tech

8 Oct 2024

Epic Games’ victory in a suit against Google means the search giant must open up its app store. Tech honchos may be hopeful for a change of administration. But even if a new president softens stance, the past four years and lawsuits elsewhere will do permanent damage.

Qualcomm’s Apple threat explains interest in Intel

8 Oct 2024

Most of the $190 bln wireless firm's revenue comes from designing chips for phones, and Apple chafes at hefty royalties. Acquiring bits or all of Intel would offer diversification and make Qualcomm a more “American” company. Mulling such a risky deal shows the company’s weakness.

Decoding the puzzle of SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son

8 Oct 2024

The Japanese tycoon shaped global technology while building and losing vast fortunes. How does he keep going? In the first episode of Breakingviews’ new podcast, The Big View, former FT editor Lionel Barber discusses what he uncovered in his biography of Son, ‘Gambling Man’.

Ireland spins global tax mess into $28 bln of gold

8 Oct 2024

Dublin expects a 2024 budget surplus worth 8% of gross national income, thanks to the presence of US companies lured by low levies. It’s evidence that profit shifting lives on despite a landmark OECD deal. The good news for Ireland is that there’s little chance of that changing.

AI sparks only dim odds of nuclear chain reaction

7 Oct 2024

Plans to reopen a Three Mile Island plant have created buzz about an atomic energy comeback. For $1.6 bln, however, Constellation’s site would power just one big data center. The economics may someday compete with solar, but it will take coordination as hard to manage as fission.

OpenAI’s $157 bln valuation requires hand waving

3 Oct 2024

Assuming new investors want a 20% return in the artificial intelligence company, it needs a $1 trln price tag in a decade. That’s conceivable, based on other tech giants’ history. Founder Sam Altman just needs to beat rivals, turn a profit, and update its business model.

OpenAI pushes limits of tech pivoting

26 Sep 2024

As part of a fundraising at a $150 bln valuation, ChatGPT’s maker may weaken its humanity-protecting nonprofit board and instead focus on profit. Boss Sam Altman also would get a big stake, in a rare case of equity misaligning incentives. Unless, that is, AI doomsayers are wrong.

AI is a black hole of bits, chips and power

26 Sep 2024

OpenAI’s ChatGPT kicked off a race to develop ever-more-sophisticated artificial intelligence. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingvews columnists dissect the vast amount of data-crunching bots and power required to feed it, investments that could cost trillions of dollars.

Murdoch’s UK property bid may yet get even sweeter

23 Sep 2024

Rightmove is mulling an improved $8.1 bln offer from Australia’s REA Group, owned by the media tycoon. A chunky premium and other UK refuseniks’ share price slumps are reasons for the listing portal’s board to say yes. But the buyer’s latest bid implies an ability to pay more.

ASML faces bigger problems than China

16 Sep 2024

Fears of US tech export curbs have pummelled the $320 bln Dutch firm’s shares. A longer-term worry is that the growth of AI leads to new technologies, and less need for ASML’s machines that make chips smaller and efficient. That, more than trade wars, may hurt its rich valuation.

Ireland can use unwanted taxes to keep Apple sweet

10 Sep 2024

Europe’s top court told the iPhone maker to pay $14 bln in corporate levies. Dublin opposed the move for fear of driving away Big Tech. But PM Simon Harris can up the country’s allure by spending the funds on infrastructure, and IT giants have limited choices for EU headquarters.

Nvidia has nothing to fear but a lack of fear

4 Sep 2024

A sell-off in the $2.6 trln chipmaker’s shares, the third this year, has little basis in industrial reality. Customers still plan to spend billions on its chips. Fickle markets and antitrust probes are risks, but a bigger one is complacency – as modeled by forebearer Intel.

Telegram’s route to profitability looks dubious

3 Sep 2024

The troubled app’s CEO Pavel Durov runs a lossmaking enterprise. The easiest path to profitability is to echo Facebook, but content moderation costs would further hit Telegram’s finances. The main alternative is to be a messaging app, but WhatsApp implies that’s hard to monetise.

Tech’s also-rans are ripe for the plucking

30 Aug 2024

Buyout barons are back to spending their $2.6 trln of dry powder, scooping up software companies like PowerSchool and Squarespace. With regulators restraining Big Tech and public market investors increasingly discerning, beleaguered sellers might be ready to take the money.

Nvidia drives path Tesla would find familiar

29 Aug 2024

Like Elon Musk’s carmaker at its peak, the $3 trln chip giant has a huge lead in a transforming industry, dented only by production glitches. Unlike Tesla, Nvidia’s valuation by some measures looks fairly sane. The bigger it gets, the higher the stakes of even small hiccups.

OpenAI’s mooted $100 bln value is relatively sober

29 Aug 2024

The ChatGPT maker may be worth just 16% more in its next share sale than in February’s funding round, according to reports. That looks modest, given AI darling Nvidia’s shares have nearly doubled. Senior departures and competition from rivals like Elon Musk justify a modest bump.

Carry trade chaos charts outlines of next selloff

28 Aug 2024

BIS researchers reckon cascading margin calls helped turn a local Japanese wobble into a global rout in early August, eventually wiping $1 trln off US tech stocks. It’s a similar story to a March 2020 slump and 2022’s UK bond collapse. Worse, the core drivers remain in place.

New EU antitrust tsar has better tools, harder job

27 Aug 2024

The European Union will soon have a new competition commissioner. Margrethe Vestager’s replacement has greater scope to go after Big Tech and Chinese subsidies. But he or she will also have to defend the single market from the assault of EU members’ national industrial policies.

Intel will be forced to find a plan B

26 Aug 2024

The US chipmaker staked everything on erasing rival TSMC’s technological lead. But the Taiwanese firm will invest $30 bln this year to stay ahead. That’s 15% more than Intel, and as its business shrinks, the gap will grow. Boss Pat Gelsinger is fighting a losing battle.