Software

How private share sales could kill the tech IPO

8 Jan 2025

Databricks, Stripe and Elon Musk’s $350 bln SpaceX facilitated large exits by insiders without a float. There’s a growing pool of patient capital targeting mature startups. The bigger the trend gets, the more likely it is that profitable unicorns can stay private indefinitely.

Tech will learn the value of a cash paycheck

3 Jan 2025

Over decades, software firms have increasingly favored issuing shares to recruit and retain workers. Such stock-based pay at public companies has reached $270 bln, just as valuations are under pressure and layoffs are rising. In 2025, tech will begin to break its equity habit.

AI will become a Madison Avenue sensation in 2025

2 Jan 2025

Google and Facebook leveraged hefty brand-building budgets. Netflix and Amazon are also now running more commercials. Machine-learning business models will be similarly built. The cutthroat battle for a $900 bln bonanza, per Breakingviews calculations, is about to kick off.

Smart glasses give tech giants dangerous FOMO

30 Dec 2024

Sales of Meta’s $300 Ray-Bans that let wearers snap pictures and talk to a virtual assistant have topped 1 mln shipments. Advances in AI, chips and software mean rivals from Amazon to Baidu will roll out high-tech specs too. But all will struggle to catch sight of profit.

Trump and Tesla will turbocharge self-driving race

23 Dec 2024

The incoming president could speed up the development of autonomous driving tech in the US. Elon Musk’s marque is poised to reap the rewards in what could be a $400 bln global market. Stragglers, like China’s BYD, will have to play catchup with a flurry of deals and partnerships.

Microsoft’s AI setback: an imaginary letter

20 Dec 2024

After rushing headlong into machine-learning chips, data centers and startups, the software titan is set to suffer from the frenzy it helped foment. Breakingviews speculates how boss Satya Nadella might break the bad news to investors about a drop in valuations and spending.

European software deal runs on servers of hope

19 Dec 2024

Microsoft supplier SoftwareOne is paying a mere 13% premium to buy Norway’s Crayon Group for $1.4 bln, mostly in shares. Private equity could swoop for the enlarged entity, improving the picture for the target’s investors. Right now, they’re obliged to rely too much on hope.

Brick phones will ring in an unlikely revival

19 Dec 2024

Nokia handsets of the early 2000s are appealing to a generation seeking a digital detox. The market, which is only 2% of US devices, is growing fast having doubled in a year. With the likes of Australia banning social media for under-16s, Apple and Samsung may pivot or lose out.

OpenAI IPO would create the next hot meme stock

16 Dec 2024

Sam Altman’s $157 bln ChatGPT creator looks increasingly like a money pit in need of constant funding. Elon Musk’s Tesla has shown that retail investors can support the stock price of a buzzy brand. An ongoing cleanup of the company’s unusual governance structure would help too.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

Berlin can curb but not stop a Romania-TikTok mess

12 Dec 2024

The app is under scrutiny for enabling meddling in Bucharest’s elections. Given a blanket TikTok ban is beyond the EU’s remit, Germany’s February poll may go the same way. Yet Berlin could also coordinate better with tech platforms ahead of time – which Romania didn’t.

Masa Son risks overcompensating for his AI misses

3 Dec 2024

The SoftBank founder sold Nvidia too early and seems late to the party with his recent OpenAI investments. Now, he may be planning to invest $9 bln a year in artificial intelligence. The risk for the billionaire’s shareholders is that he acts recklessly to make up for lost time.

A financial historian’s warning about the AI boom

26 Nov 2024

Artificial intelligence hopes have unleashed an investment frenzy, propelling chip giant Nvidia’s value to $3.5 trln. In this episode of The Big View podcast, mathematician Andrew Odlyzko explores parallels with the 1990s dotcom bubble and Britain’s railway mania of the 1840s.

Ireland’s $25 bln tax bounty reveals OECD flaws

19 Nov 2024

Dublin expects a record budget surplus in 2024 thanks to a cash deluge from tech giants. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Pascal Saint-Amans, the architect of a landmark 2021 tax treaty, explains how the US’s failure to ratify the deal allows havens to rake in billions.

At least Tencent can retreat into a virtual world

14 Nov 2024

The Chinese titan's hits like "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" helped power a one-third rise in adjusted quarterly earnings to $8 bln. Outside of gaming, though, fintech and cloud services barely grew. Consumers and companies are holding back splurging in the real world.

Gulf’s AI strategy is built on more than sand

13 Nov 2024

The UAE and Saudi are raising $200 bln for artificial intelligence. A reliance on imported chips means AI superpower status akin to China or the US is unlikely. But even if the region can’t build a ChatGPT-killer, it can carve out a niche to make the exercise worthwhile.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

China robotaxi IPOs may struggle to find their way

25 Oct 2024

Pony AI and rival WeRide are prepping US listings. But shares in fellow autonomous-vehicle pioneers like Mobileye and Hesai have lost half their value or more in the past year, and the road to profitability for driverless cabs looks long. That makes these deals a harder sell.

Why data centres are a bottleneck for the AI boom

15 Oct 2024

Artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT depend on chips and energy. But a $1 trln rush to build data centres faces constraints on planning and power. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Morgan Laughlin of asset manager PGIM explains the virtual frenzy’s physical limits.

What Masayoshi Son can teach us about investing

11 Oct 2024

The Japanese tech tycoon backed future giants like China’s Alibaba as well as spectacular flops like office-sharing startup WeWork. A new biography likens him to a high-stakes gambler. But Son’s chequered career also reveals some of the skills of a successful venture capitalist.